What made French President Emmanuel Macron call for an uncalled-for snap election? Was it vanity? Oversight? Self-assurance? Or just plain genius? And what about its implications for France, its stature in Europe, and its relations with key allies such as India?
As the French gear up for the second round of their historic snap elections on Sunday, the dramatic developments in the electoral landscape have left Europe watchers in a tizzy. Will it be the gravest undoing of a brilliant leader, or will it call the bluff of the far Right’s grandstanding? It will all be known by Sunday.
Fetch I know not what
At the European Parliament elections held in June, Macron’s Centrist coalition could only manage less than half of the votes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won. Stung by the outright rejection of his ‘Renaissance’ party and its ideals, Macron got gripped by an existential need to give the sovereign people their say, when they didn’t really demand it.
He called for national snap elections to re-elect 577 members of France’s lower house, the National Assembly, because he ‘felt bad’ that his party did poorly at the European Elections; not because the French constitution or the French people demanded it. The announcement came at a time when polls anyway showed unprecedented support for the far Right amid a surge of anti-incumbency. Instead of re-calibrating his oft-criticised style of impersonal elitist politics and building confidence across different liberal parties for a joint Republican front until 2027, he shook it all up.
Just as the polls expected, far Right leader Le Pen and her charming successor, Jordan Bardella, pulled off an impressive win in the first round held on 30 June, a Sunday. To ‘hurt’ Macron a bit more, the far Left came second, while the French President’s own coalition finished third.
Macron, understandably, has not been visible in public lately. Élysée Palace’s official channels have come in handy to hide his discomfiture and convey bland calls for the Republicans to unite.
For the record, his tenure as President ends in 2027. However, merely 48 hours after the first round of voting, more surprises unravelled.
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A tale of two Sundays
Le Pen’s victory and Macron’s downfall seemed like a foregone conclusion after the results of the first round. Her win seemed inevitable; the discussions switched focus on whether National Rally alone could get the 289 seats required for an absolute majority.
However, France could not handle the proposition of a far-Right prime minister for the first time in its history. An unusual ruckus descended its streets soon after National Rally’s stupendous performance on the first Sunday.
That said, it would only have been a matter of time before the National Rally won the second round too and Macron would have been forced to appoint a PM from the party with a radically different ideology. The chances of seeing a sulking Macron ‘cohabit’ with a radiant Bardella were close to getting real when the Republican acrobatics kicked in.
In less than 48 hours, the Centrists and the Leftists, keeping their differences aside, withdrew from 224 seats. They have one purpose—to ensure that the anti-far Right vote doesn’t get divided and the National Rally doesn’t get an absolute majority.
With such a huge withdrawal and show of solidarity against the far Right, it seems very unlikely that Le Pen would now manage an absolute majority, which, until two days ago, was considered a done deal.
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Cohabitation and Macron’s legacy
This development would not save Macron from ‘co-habitation’, an arrangement where the president and the prime minister from different parties tread a wobbly partnership to run different aspects of the governance of France, often resulting in friction, clash, political deadlock and a lot of time wasted.
To be precise, either of the following ‘co-habitations’ is waiting for Paris when the ballots are cast on Sunday, 7 July.
The first scenario, although unlikely, will be a nightmare for Macron if the far Right or the far Left gets an absolute majority, i.e. 289 seats. In that case, the president would have to succumb to appointing a prime minister who adheres to a radically different ideology, resulting in complicated cohabitation.
The second scenario, a more watered-down version, seems more likely in present circumstances: Macron would still have to choose a new prime minister, but not from the extreme blocs.
The results of the snap elections and co-habitation per se will not affect Macron’s ‘reserved domain’ or control over France’s national security, defence and foreign policy. But his domestically diminished stature might adversely impact France’s capacity for leadership in foreign affairs.
Macron’s dipping popularity at home has created uncertainty for the future of the Centrist party and his own political legacy, and raised questions about the status of Europe’s second-largest economy. Lest it is forgotten, it’s the Franco-German engine that steers the European Union project. In the current securitised environment, France is not just at the forefront but also an integral part of the Weimar Triangle—a strategic partnership comprising the three dominant European powers of France, Germany and Poland.
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Does New Delhi need to worry?
The political situation in France, India’s closest ally in Europe and the epicentre of its expanding footprint in the continent, has stirred maximum interest and curiosity in New Delhi.
Thanks to Macron’s ‘reserved domain’, which makes him perhaps the most powerful democratically elected president in the world, India can expect continuity from France in all aspects of the bilateral relationship. The two documents Horizon 2047 and the defence industrial roadmap will keep guiding the expansion of bilateral ties across multiple domains. These areas include not just defence industry cooperation and innovation but also the convergence of interest in the outer space, Indo-Pacific, joint exercises, trilateral overtures, and surveillance missions in the Indian Ocean Region through frameworks such as the Maritime Cooperation Dialogue.
It is reasonable to expect consistency in the French commitment to co-designing, co-developing, and co-producing defence equipment in the run-up to 2026, which has been declared as the year of India-French innovation.
However, such deliverables will be ascertained by a realistic assessment of French capabilities in times to come, which will be affected by the economic hardship the country is going through. It is well known that the economic policies proposed by both the far Right and far Left will land France in greater debt and will bring more economic strain.
Finally, it also gives a sneak peek into the rather veiled goals Macron seems to be chasing. Perhaps this stunt would show the inability of the non-Republicans to add genuine value to France’s ills. Perhaps it is Macron trying to fight his own anti-incumbency by letting the far Right run the government so that by 2027, a new anti-incumbency is on the rise, which will favour the Centrists.
Whether Macron’s gamble will succeed in the long run, or if the far Right will be forced to mainstream its course, will decide the fate of one of the most popular leaders in the world.
The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)