The Bangladesh national elections scheduled for 7 January have kept the country on tenterhooks. One opposition party has boycotted the election and another has been banned from participating by the court. While massive public protests and the fate of the opposition have marred the campaign, a recent remark from Election Commissioner Anisur Rahman does little to remove the shadow of doubt over the credibility of the election process.
Rahman, expressing concern over Bangladesh’s future, emphasised the need for the election to be conducted in a free and fair manner not just for Bangladeshis but also for the rest of the world. “If we can’t make this election free, fair and acceptable, then our future is uncertain,” The Daily Star quoted him as saying at the launch of a training programme for executive magistrates in Dhaka. “There is a possibility that Bangladesh may be isolated,” he added.
Both domestic and foreign commentators have highlighted the visa restrictions imposed by the US on members of Bangladesh’s law enforcement, the ruling party, and the opposition for “undermining the democratic election process”. In this atmosphere of doubt about the election being lopsided and favouring Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s return to power for a historic fourth term, there have been other interesting developments that are as crucial in determining the future of Bangladesh politics.
The King’s parties
As the debate intensified around the elections, several new parties sprang up in 2023.
The Bangladeshi press is calling them the king’s parties. There is the Trinamool Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the Bangladesh Nationalist Movement, and the Bangladesh Supreme Party. Then, there is the Swatantra Ganatantra Mancha, launched by 125 opposition BNP leaders.
Political observers in Bangladesh are saying that the king’s parties are political formations propped up by the ruling Awami League to serve its own interests. “The government and the Awami League are mobilising some small parties to absorb BNP defectors. Sources indicate that a certain party is maintaining regular communication with them on behalf of the Awami League,” Bangladesh newspaper Prothom Alo said.
However, political journalist Sahidul Hasan Khokon sees the emergence of these political formations as a positive development.
“In a democracy, there is always space for new political formations. Most of these new parties are headed by former leaders of the BNP and Jamaat. While the BNP and Jamaat are not participating in the polls, many of their leaders are by launching new parties. How is that a bad thing? You can’t say there should be opposition to Awami League and then criticise new political formations,” Khokon told ThePrint.
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The fugitive prince
The one man notable for his absence in the 7 January polls is BNP acting chairperson Tarique Rahman. The BNP has decided to boycott the polls, with Rahman exhorting Bangladeshis to “commence non-cooperation with the present illegal government”. In a video message posted on X on 20 December, Rahman said that by ensuring “fascist Hasina out of state power, a free, fair, impartial and participatory election will be held in the country.”
With less than a week to go before the elections, how Rahman plans to achieve his objectives is still not clear. The BNP and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami carried out “peaceful protests” against the Hasina government in late October, which led to arson, clashes between the police and Awami League cadre, and deaths. Now, the BNP plans to distribute leaflets across the country to plead Bangladeshis not to cast their vote on 7 January.
With senior leaders forming new parties like the Trinamool BNP, the future of BNP will be called into question if the Awami League returns to power.
One of the main reasons for the BNP’s current predicament seems to be a leadership crisis. Former prime minister and the BNP’s former chairperson Khaleda Zia, battling ill health and conviction in a corruption case, is virtually out of the political scene. It is left to her son Tarique Rahman to run the BNP.
But Rahman is a fugitive himself, managing the BNP’s functioning remotely from London. On 2 August 2023, a Bangladeshi court sentenced him to nine years in jail and his wife to three years for accumulating wealth beyond their declared income. Rahman was sentenced to life imprisonment earlier as well, in connection with a 2004 grenade attack on a rally led by Hasina. Since returning to Bangladesh is not an option for him, how long the “fugitive prince” manages to run his beleaguered party via video messages remains to be seen.
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Eagles and the comeback queen
There are as many as 382 independent candidates in this upcoming election. And strangely, 152 among them have chosen the eagle as their poll symbol. The Dhaka Tribune reported that candidates have cited the eagle’s visual appeal among voters as their reason for choosing the symbol. But the truth may be something else.
“Analysts believe this trend is a deliberate strategy by the ruling Awami League to attract voters. Many Awami League leaders who have become independent candidates have chosen the eagle, hoping to leverage its positive connotations of power, strength and invincibility,” the Dhaka Tribune reported. Political analysts say in case an independent candidate wins by defeating the Awami League candidate, she will join the party immediately after.
On the contrary, Bangladeshi academic Sharin Shajahan Naomi believes eagles may prove to be a threat to many Awami League candidates. “Many eagles are backed by the BNP and the Jamaat. They are in the electoral fray to defeat Awami League candidates and are not dummies placed by the ruling party. They have made the electoral battle that much tougher for the Awami League,” she told ThePrint.
With her main political opponent, the BNP, out of the game, the prevailing sense in Dhaka is that Hasina will be back in power. If she does, it will be her historic fourth term in office since she took over in 2009. Before this, she held the same office from 1996 to 2001.
The road to power though has not been smooth for her as she survived as many as 19 assassination attempts during her political journey. However, Hasina has always come back stronger and won her country over. In recent years, though, allegations of authoritarianism, systemic corruption and suppression of free speech and dissent have raised questions about her leadership. Doubts have been raised about the fairness of the current election, and critics have said the whole electoral process has been rigged in her favour. If she comes back to power, yet again, these are serious issues she will have to tackle.
Deep Halder is a writer and journalist. He tweets @deepscribble. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)