If BJP cannot win South states, it’ll make them irrelevant — through delimitation

Representational image | File photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi being felicitated by Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai | ANI

The inauguration of the new Parliament building on 28 May was a momentous occasion for the republic. And yet, the event was marked by one-upmanship and rancour, with neither the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party nor the opposition budging an inch. If BJP used the solemn occasion as a propaganda event focused on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the major opposition parties boycotted it in protest of President Droupadi Murmu’s absence.

With the spectacle of King Charles III’s ascension to the English throne still fresh in people’s minds, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi tweeted that the PM treated the event as a “coronation”. The Parliament inauguration was also preceded by political mudslinging centred on the provenance of a Sengol (sceptre), presented to the nation’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, on the eve of India’s Independence.

Missing the wood for the trees

Amid all that, the larger issue that got lost in the din – which coincidentally found mention in the PM’s speech – is the capacity of the larger Parliament building, capable of accommodating as many as 888 members in the Lok Sabha and 384 in the Rajya Sabha. In what could decidedly alter the nation’s political landscape, PM Modi’s allusion to increased representation presages the delimitation of parliamentary constituencies in 2026.

Seats in the Lok Sabha had increased from the 1951-52 general elections right until the 1971 polls, in accordance with the constitutional provision of allocating seats on the basis of population. With the enactment of the 42^nd amendment of the Constitution by former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1976, the delimitation process was frozen for 25 years, which, in 2001, was pushed back by another 25 years with the 84^th amendment during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure as PM.

When the Central Vista redevelopment project – which also envisaged the construction of a new Parliament building – was mooted in 2019, few people would have had any inkling of BJP’s grand vision. The confidence displayed by Amit Shah in 2018 that the party would rule India for the next 50 years is instructional. If BJP retains power in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it will start at a huge advantage in the polls down the line, as delimitation will follow in 2026.

That is simply because the number of seats in the Hindi heartland, where BJP won 60 per cent of its seats in 2019, would see an exponential rise, with one projection estimating that Uttar Pradesh alone would have 143 seats while Kerala’s tally would remain intact at 20. In the last 50 years, where the southern states have seen a plateauing population, heartland states have fared abysmally on this count.

15th Finance Commission: A precursor

A precursor to the delimitation exercise and how it could affect the southern states disproportionately became apparent in the 15^th finance commission’s devolution to these states. This was set in motion by the Modi government’s terms of reference to the commission. Led by economist and politician NK Singh, it mandated that the census data of 2011 be used to arrive at the figures instead of the 1971 numbers used until then.

Needless to say, this saw the southern states losing their share by 1.96 per cent, benefitting the Hindi-belt states.

The whole rationale of a freeze in constituency delimitation in 1976 was guided by the sound logic that population control initiatives would require a fair amount of time to take effect. With the resultant skewed fertility rate among states, the moment delimitation is taken up, it would surely set the stage for a massive showdown, with southern states slated to be the biggest losers in terms of representation.

It would be akin to punishing the South simply on account of its success in implementing population control measures, in line with central government policy, and conversely, rewarding the states that bungled on it.

Dravida Nadu redux?

In a diverse country such as India, which is more of a federation of linguistic states with varied populations and cultures, such a blatant bias could even lead to secessionist movements – like a revival of Periyar EV Ramasamy’s Dravida Nadu construct.

The Madras High Court had once observed that Tamil Nadu’s Lok Sabha seats getting reduced to 39 (from 41 in the 1967 election) was “unreasonable and unfair”. It went on to propose a compensation of Rs 5,600 crore for the state, along with an increase in its Rajya Sabha seats.

One way the BJP can deal with the delimitation fallout is by changing the composition of the Rajya Sabha, modelling it on the United States Senate (its upper chamber), where all states have equal representation. As of today, India follows a degressive proportion for its house of elders, which is neither proportional nor equal.

However, BJP may not be thinking that far, just yet.

BJP’s goals

For now, BJP’s eyes are firmly trained on the impending Lok Sabha election next year, where a win would be the first step to accomplishing grand designs. With its seats in the Hindi heartland reaching a saturation point in 2019, the focus is on maximising its tally from the south.

The Sengol controversy – for all its utility in serving as a distraction – itself is a follow-up on the Kasi-Tamil Sangamam, BJP’s grand idea to awaken Hindu consciousness among Tamils. BJP is simultaneously trying to cater to the Shaivites in Tamil Nadu, similar to the Lingayats in Karnataka, to bolster its Tamil-Brahmin base in the state.

Likewise, the party continues to court the Church in Kerala, harbours ambitions of emerging as the primary opposition in Telangana, and mulls forming a tri-party alliance in Andhra Pradesh in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The setback in the Karnataka election has put a spanner in this blueprint, for now.

That doesn’t mean BJP will forever try to adapt itself to the sensibilities prevalent in the South. If BJP cannot start winning there, it will make southern states irrelevant to its election matrix by undertaking delimitation of constituencies by 2026 itself.

Disparate opposition

BJP’s biggest advantage in crossing the 2024 election hurdle is the failure of disparate opposition parties to coalesce in the face of impending annihilation. On the eve of the inauguration of the new Parliament building, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’s Twitter handle posted an amusing tweet with a picture of a coffin and the hexagonal Parliament structure side-by-side captioned, ‘Ye kya hai? (What is this?)’.

On 28 May, RJD leader and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav was in Kerala to partake in a memorial event commemorating veteran socialist MP Veerendra Kumar. Many speeches were delivered at this event, burnishing the importance of unity among secular forces.

On the Vande Bharat Express en route to Thiruvananthapuram from Kochi the next day, this columnist was coincidentally seated beside a veteran Left leader. I asked what he thought of the Parliament structure, and he replied thus: “A lot of us find it architecturally sublime…but we cannot voice it publicly, of course.”

Perhaps this sums up the opposition’s muddled strategy for BJP’s crafty moves, where southern states might soon be condemned to irrelevance.

The author is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. He tweets @AnandKochukudy. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)