The PM is trying to downplay Siddaramaiah’s popularity by making it a Modi vs Rahul battle. If the BJP wins, it will be seen as his victory over Rahul.
The Congress party seems to have put all its eggs in the Karnataka basket. The Congress will win all elections from now on, Rahul Gandhi said recently, starting with Karnataka.
There is only one reason why the Congress has a good chance of winning Karnataka despite anti-incumbency – a shrewd chief minister, Siddaramaiah. History won’t judge him if he doesn’t become chief minister again. After all, he managed to remain CM for a full five years, a first in 40 years. And he gave a good fight.
It is Siddaramaiah’s boss, Gandhi, for whom this is a real test. There are just too many factors working in favour of the Congress in Karnataka. As the party’s commander-in-chief, if Gandhi can’t deliver a victory in Karnataka, one will wonder if he can ever defeat the BJP.
In May 2018, Gandhi has been outgrowing himself. He has left behind his ‘Pappu’ image, and is standing at the doorstep of acceptability. A victory in Karnataka could make him be seen as a real challenger to Narendra Modi. Can he do it?
1. Free hand: Gandhi became Congress president just before the Gujarat election results were out. He now has a fairly free hand in running the party the way he likes. His mother and her advisers’ scepticism isn’t slowing down decision-making in the party as it used to. It will no longer be possible for him to blame the old guard.
2. Local face: The Congress has a strong regional face in Karnataka, which it did not in Gujarat, for instance. The only thing that makes Siddaramaiah look smaller is the chief minister’s constant references to the party high command. Standard issues such as factionalism remain, but it’s Gandhi’s job to make sure they don’t hurt the party on result day. If Veerappa Moily and Mallikarjun Kharge are making the going tough for Siddaramaiah, it’s his job to manage them.
We have seen how strong regional faces can overcome the Modi factor, in Bihar and Delhi in 2015. If the Congress can’t manage to win with Siddaramaiah, can it ever manage to defeat the BJP of Modi and Amit Shah?
3. Strong grassroots presence: Unlike many states where the Congress has been in a direct fight with the BJP, it is not a weak party in Karnataka. In urban Gujarat, which saved the day for the BJP in that state, the Congress barely exists. The process of reviving the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar never achieved any success. In Karnataka, however, the Congress has a strong grassroots presence that should be able to match the BJP’s ‘election machine’. As a party in power in the state, it should also not have the problem of lack of resources the Congress complains about elsewhere.
4. The BJP has a weak face: While B.S. Yeddyurappa and the Reddy brothers may bring the BJP caste votes in Karnataka, the BJP’s local faces are unable to match up to Siddaramaiah. An ageing Yeddyurappa just doesn’t do it for the BJP. The corruption-tainted image of the Reddy brothers dents the BJP’s ability to wage an anti-incumbency campaign upon the Congress on account of corruption.
5. Caste is with Congress: The rise and rise of the BJP has taken place with its clever stitching together of upper caste and OBC voters in many states. In Karnataka, however, it is the Congress which has an upper hand in the caste calculus. Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA formula is a combination of minorities, Dalits and backward classes. This combination is said to cover 80 per cent of the electorate. As if that was not enough, he has also tried to break away the BJP’s Lingayat vote. The Congress in Karnataka has also been doing what Gandhi says the Modi government is not doing: welfare and populism for the poor.
6. The Modi narrative is down: Last but not the least, Brand Modi is not what it was in 2014. Even in the Modi wave of 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won 41 per cent vote-share in the state to the BJP’s 43 per cent. But now, Brand Modi is a bit down due to a multitude of factors: bypoll losses, concerns over unemployment and farm distress, the escape of PNB scam-accused Nirav Modi, and so on.
If the BJP still manages to defeat the Congress in Karnataka, it will not only be seen as a sign of the resilience of Brand Modi, but a failure of Gandhi’s leadership.
The Congress and Gandhi have been the target of PM Modi’s speeches in the state. The PM is trying to downplay Siddaramaiah’s popularity by making it a Modi vs Gandhi battle. If the BJP wins, it will inevitably be seen as a victory of Modi over Gandhi.