The collapse of the ceasefire between Israeli Defense Forces and the Palestinian resistance in Gaza is indeed tragic for the hapless civilians suffering a daily carnage of unimaginable proportions. Gaza is now globally the riskiest place to be a mother or a child. And with another 5,500 Palestinian women expected to give birth during December, the crisis can only worsen. But key questions remain about the direction of the war, its end purpose, and the long-term consequences for those involved.
Given that Israel has both a stated and a desired objective of invading Gaza but is nowhere within reach shows that the war is making no progress. The officially stated objective of the Gaza operation is the total destruction of Hamas as an entity. This is only catchy headline-making and is operationally impossible. In the history of the Palestine-Israeli conflict, no such faction or idea has yet been entirely eradicated. Notably, an explicitly racist Israeli football club refuses to change its attitude. The unstated objective of Tel Aviv is, of course, the eviction of Palestinians from Gaza–long-held a dream.
Political guillotine of the war
It is known that no professional military will seek, or accept, any cessation of hostilities if its stated military objectives are being met or seem achievable. In the Indian context, this is best understood by the conduct of the Pakistani army and its failed intrusions into the Kargil sector in 1999. Only when it realised that India’s offensive was certain to dislodge its positions on the heights did it start seeking peace, prompting Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to go to Washington to present the case. India accepted only when its military objectives were met.
All wars have politico-military repercussions, and they are not always along predicted lines. If the past of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is any indicator, then it is certain that political heads will role. Except that following this round, the political guillotine will not fall solely on Israeli heads but include Palestinian ones as well. The first certainty of this war, of course, is that it marks the beginning of the political end for Benjamin Netanyahu, the dodgy Israeli Prime Minister. No matter how many stripes he has changed over the years, his cleverness has finally caught up with him.
Similarly, the mythical image of the IDF has taken a beating, which will take much effort to undo. Despite all evidence suggesting its overwhelming superiority when compared with its underfunded neighbourhood militaries, and hence the impunity with which it operates over Lebanon or Syria, the IDF was caught napping on the day it mattered. Literally. Soldiers and officers were captured or killed in their sleep. When they retaliated, it was slow and lumbering. And the IDF even ended up killing its own citizens. This war is unlikely to rectify the damage done.
Even if the IDF resumes the war and discovers the much-touted Hamas command centre under a thoroughly destroyed hospital, it is unlikely that Netanyahu and his military will be able to redeem their images. Much damage has been done to both. Far too many people globally know the excesses being committed in the name of retribution in Gaza. The Biblical sanction for murdering women and children as invoked by Netanyahu are hardly words that his allies want to hear. And slowly, Israel’s allies are also running out of patience and willingness to look the other away.
Also read: Israel isn’t the first to violate laws of war. But we owe Gaza an experiment in negotiations
White Western alliance
Far great damage has been done to the image of a supposedly values-based Western global order. Instead, it appears as a hypocritical white Western alliance of the privileged with double standards of the grossest kind. ‘White lives matter’ seems to be the credo of this club of the insensitive. Driven by the United States President Joe Biden with a dubious past when it comes to double standards on Israel, other Western leaders have also come across short in treating humanity equally. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen was vocal on Ukraine but has been predictably reticent on Gaza.
So much so that Western professional diplomats in the region have an uphill task to maintain an image of fairness and compassion. It is tough indeed when Western leaders have looked the other way, as international institutions have come under repeated Israeli brutalities. The United Nations-run aid programmes in Gaza were particularly targeted by Israeli air strikes. The UN has lost more staffers in this period than at any other point in its history.
Also read: Israel is repeating mistakes of 1982 Lebanon war in Gaza. It might get revenge but not peace
Israel’s reputation
So, when Israel extends the detention of the director of Gaza’s al-Shifa Hospital, Muhammad Abu Salmiya, and there is no condemnation of it, it is another blow to its slumping reputation.
The Palestine National Authority–currently governing the West Bank–has also suffered the greatest reputation damage. It is regarded as a corrupt, directionless entity. Long subverted by Israeli intransigence, which prevented any progress toward a two-state solution, the Palestinian Authority now appears as a lesser partner in the excesses being committed on the West Bank.
The hoarse defiance of freed Palestinian captive Rawda Abu Ajamieh truly reflects the shrunken image of the Palestinian Authority. And 2023 has been particularly bad for West Bank Palestinians, as armed Israeli settlers continuously run amok, killing and evicting innocents, and destroying crops. The Israeli army does the rest, cruelly.
Manvendra Singh is a Congress leader, Editor-in-Chief of Defence & Security Alert and Chairman, Soldier Welfare Advisory Committee, Rajasthan. He tweets @ManvendraJasol. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)