The traditional perception of the Northern Sea Route, or NSR, as a route of interest exclusively to Russia and China is becoming outdated. Today, the NSR is primarily an export channel for hydrocarbons, but qualitative changes are evident: increased containerisation, the launch of pilot international services, and the expansion of partner countries indicate the beginning of a new era.
The Arctic logistics potential is becoming a bargaining chip for a wide range of countries in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East.
Expanding the geography of partnership
The NSR is becoming a focal point for countries seeking independence from traditional Western logistics chains. This interest is driven not only by logistical sovereignty and security, but also by the pure economics of the route. The distance between Shanghai and Rotterdam via the NSR is 8,000-8,500 nautical miles, compared to approximately 10,500 nautical miles via the Suez Canal. It would shave off 10-15 days of travel, and in some cases, up to three weeks. Moreover, this significantly reduces fuel consumption, which is in line with international sustainable development initiatives such as low-carbon logistics.
The key advantages of the NSR—shorter routes, predictability, and environmental friendliness—are inevitably expanding the list of countries interested in this route.
India may view it as a strategic imperative, not simply as a logistical alternative, linking the NSR with the expansion of the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor to diversify and ensure stable energy supplies. The further deepening of the partnership along the evolving Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor (TATK) demonstrates New Delhi’s principled stand, as it occurs amid the risk of secondary sanctions from Western countries. India’s willingness to take on the geopolitical complexities associated with the NSR highlights its recognition of the route’s potential in achieving energy security and logistical sovereignty for the country. It’s not simply a commercially lucrative project, but a strategically vital one with significant international implications.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), represented by logistics giant DP World, continues its systematic integration into the TATK, developing a previously established joint venture with Rosatom for transit container shipping. The UAE’s strategic interest lies in using the NSR to elevate the status of its key ports, including zones such as the KEZAD Group, to central transhipment hubs. Integrating the NSR into DP World’s global network will allow significant cargo flows to be redirected from the emerging economies to Europe via the secure northern route, thereby enhancing the logistical sovereignty and competitiveness of the Emirates’ infrastructure in global trade.
Singapore is demonstrating a willingness to move from observation to technological partnership, declaring its willingness to participate in the construction of coastal infrastructure, dams, and even icebreakers. This is an important signal: high-tech Asian economies see the Arctic as a market for exporting their engineering expertise.
Involvement in BRICS and the SCO, and the desire to exploit this window of opportunity to secure logistics and investment niches, are fueling interest in the Arctic among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and several other Gulf and Middle Eastern states.
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There are limitations
Among the achievements of the NSR, record levels of transit can be highlighted. While in 2023, its trade volume was approximately 2 million tons, in 2025 it reached 3.2 million tons. Container traffic volume increased from 176,000 tons to over 400,000 tons. The passage of the international container vessel Istanbul Bridge in September 2025 from Ningbo to Felixstowe via the NSR confirmed Russia’s potential to act as a transit territory and conduit operator for regular container services.
The NSR’s records are important, but for now, growth is “from a low base”, with each new resource project significantly changing the statistics, while a stable transit flow is only just emerging.
The structure of cargo traffic on the NSR confirms the raw materials basis of the current growth. Hydrocarbons account for over 80 per cent of the total volume of traffic: LNG for approximately 58 per cent, and oil for approximately 21 per cent. Containers account for approximately 4 per cent, while other cargo accounts for approximately 17 per cent. Among the largest shippers are Novatek, Gazprom Neft, and Norilsk Nickel.
The NSR remains complex, with a number of limitations.
The key barrier is the fleet shortage and Western sanctions. Forming a “shadow fleet” for the Arctic is a complex and risky process due to the harsh conditions.
There is also a geographical infrastructure imbalance: the Eastern section of the Russian Arctic continues to lag behind the Western section. The depths of straits (for example, the Sannikov Strait) limit vessel drafts, requiring complex logistics or cargo transhipment.
Service and safety are another set of challenges. Sustainable growth of the NSR requires not only strengthening the icebreaker fleet but also developing port and repair infrastructure, rescue bases, and communications and navigation systems. On the Eastern section of the route, from Chukotka to Yakutia, many elements of this infrastructure are still under construction. One such example is the planned opening of an integrated emergency and rescue centre of the EMERCOM in Pevek in 2024. However, creating a comprehensive network of security hubs along the entire NSR remains a major undertaking.
Finally, despite warming, year-round navigation along the entire route remains a goal, not a given. Winter and spring escorts require additional costs for icebreaker support, which increases the tariff for end users.
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NSR’s expansion to TATK requires innovative management model
The response to structural challenges is the restructuring of the NSR and TATK management systems. The core element is securing Rosatom‘s role as the sole infrastructure operator for the NSR, responsible for operating the icebreaker fleet, piloting vessels, and developing ports and digital services. This decision, formalised before 2020, effectively created a “vertical” management structure for the route. The concept of a TATK, intended to connect the maritime route with Siberia’s river arteries, the railway network, and inland transport hubs, was added to the agenda.
Infrastructure-wise, the TATK concept envisions:
- modernisation of Arctic ports (Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Sabetta, Dudinka, Pevek, and others);
- development of northern railways (including the Northern Latitudinal Railway and the potential North-Siberian Railway); and
- construction of bridges and logistics centers at junctions with internal corridors.
Specifically, the agenda includes the modernisation and reconstruction of the White Sea-Baltic Canal, which links the White Sea with the Baltic Basin and provides access from Arctic ports to inland waterways and industrial regions in the European part of Russia. The inclusion of the White Sea Canal in the TATK architecture allows it to be considered as an element of a multimodal transport system, complementing the NSR maritime route with inland waterways.
In pursuit of establishing the NSR as a globally recognised transport corridor, the establishment of a unified specialised corporation or operator for the TATK is under consideration. The objective of this proposed structure is threefold: to integrate fragmented infrastructure and logistics initiatives, secure stable long-term funding, and streamline the administration of coastal infrastructure and multimodal transportation. However, proceeding with such a decision requires a thorough financial and economic justification. Furthermore, it is crucial to mitigate the risk of overlapping responsibilities, given that certain functions are already executed by Rosatom, thus not to slow down, but rather accelerate, the development of the corridor.
Nevertheless, in 2026, the Russian government has launched a three-year programme to stimulate regular cabotage container shipping operations within Russia, connecting its western and eastern regions. This initiative seeks to establish reliable maritime routes between key ports, including St Petersburg, Murmansk, and Arkhangelsk in the west, and Vladivostok, Vostochny, Nakhodka, and Korsakov in the east. The goal is to facilitate the development of this shipping corridor and support shipping companies.
Future scenarios
Three plausible scenarios for the evolution of the NSR and the TATK through 2035 can be identified.
The first scenario is raw materials-based, and envisions the NSR remaining primarily a conduit for hydrocarbon transportation. Transit is sporadic. Growth in cargo traffic is directly dependent on the commissioning of new production capacity. This is the “minimum” scenario, ensuring cost recovery but not global leadership.
The second scenario is opportunistic transit. Asian partners use the NSR as a “backup airfield” for seasonal cargo shipments when it is cost-effective or in case of disruptions to southern routes, as in the case of the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Russia profits from icebreaker escorts, but does not integrate deeply into global value chains.
The third scenario is characterised as an infrastructure breakthrough and involves the development of a full-fledged corridor with the modernisation of hub ports, construction of a container fleet, and the creation of a digital logistics ecosystem. In this scenario, the NSR becomes a real competitor to southern routes, taking up to 10-15 per cent of container transit between Europe and Asia.
Maksim Dankin is Director General, Expert Center – Project Office for Arctic Development (PORA), and a Member of the State Commission for Arctic Development. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)