The Indian National Congress has won a historic mandate in Telangana — but this triumph is overshadowed by unexpected defeats in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The setback in Rajasthan was anticipated, but overall, the results are certainly disappointing for the party. Clearly, there are some lessons to be learned for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
The positive message for the Congress is that a well-planned and focused campaign such as the one in Telangana can pay dividends. Recall that in 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had almost doubled its vote share to 19 per cent and won four Lok Sabha seats, compared to the Congress’ three. Its strong performance in byelections led many to believe that it would displace the Congress as the main opposition in Telangana, an outcome that the latter would have found difficult to recover from.
Realising this, the Congress began its Telangana campaign early and worked assiduously to expand its political base, given the big gap of 19 percentage points that it had with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in 2018. Candidates were selected on the basis of methodical analysis; welfare messaging was focused and consistent. The Congress’ vote share consequently jumped 11 percentage points (to 39 per cent) while the BRS’ dropped 9 points (to 37 per cent).
In the other states
Elements of this approach were applied in the other states, not the entire package. In Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the campaigns were led by the incumbent leaders and were oriented around their welfare schemes and programmes. In Rajasthan, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s government implemented pathbreaking schemes such as the Right to Health Act, which includes health insurance of Rs 25 lakh, and a scheme for gig workers who are desperately in need of social security. In agrarian Chhattisgarh, CM Bhupesh Baghel’s government rolled out a number of schemes for farmers that were acknowledged to have ameliorated rural distress in the state, combined with appeals to Hindu religiosity. In Madhya Pradesh, former CM Kamal Nath became the face of the campaign, offering a mix of welfare and appeals to religiosity.
It appears that Gehlot’s undeniable popularity wasn’t enough to overcome anti-incumbency against MLAs, many of whom were again given tickets. However, the scale of the BJP’s gains in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh has come as a shock. Given the scale of anger against the government in Madhya Pradesh, an 8-point jump in the BJP’s vote share seems almost incomprehensible.
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A shock with limited impact
Whatever analysts intoxicated by the BJP’s recent winning record might say, the Congress is a capable party experienced in sensing the public mood. For it to expect victory when, in fact, the incumbent wins by a landslide is not something that happens very often. Even in Chhattisgarh, where there was a sense that the race had become close – as opposed to earlier expectations of an easy victory – a 13 percentage point surge in the BJP vote share came as a shock. These two outcomes bear further investigation.
It is tempting to reduce India’s political landscape to a North vs South binary or to glibly suggest that the Ladli Behna Yojana led to the BJP victory in Madhya Pradesh. Certainly, the BJP’s Hindutva politics finds greater resonance in northern and western India, but the party has been defeated there before and will assuredly be defeated again in the future.
If there is a silver lining, it is that the impact of these elections on the contest in 2024 will be limited. The BJP won 62 out of 65 seats in the three Hindi heartland states in 2019 and is unlikely to improve on this score. After all, the Congress has held on to its existing vote shares in all three states. In Telangana, the BJP is also very unlikely to improve on its score of four out of 17, while the Congress’ tally is likely to rise substantially from the current three. The BJP’s Rajya Sabha tally will also improve by two or three seats at best in the next election to the upper house.
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Stick to core voters
What about the future? How can the Congress ensure that it protects the majority of Indian voters who do not support the BJP from the latter’s majoritarian bullying and intimidation? One solution is to stick by your core voters. The Congress voting base has, for many years, consisted of the poor, particularly tribals, Dalits, and minorities. If flirtations with religiosity or big business take you away from your core supporters, then reconsider. The fact that the BJP won more tribal seats than the Congress in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan should be worrying.
Related to this is ideological clarity. While some state units might choose to emphasise religiosity because the voter base is itself religious, no one is interested in a diluted version of what the BJP peddles daily. In my experience of three state campaigns in the Hindi belt, I have found individual Congress party members — like many Indians — to be highly religious. But unlike the BJP, they have an inclusive mindset and prefer not to weaponise religion to win votes. It is perfectly legitimate to engage in a battle of ideas in the religious domain using religious rhetoric and imagery. But elevating conservative religious values to the status of a primary platform risks diluting the party’s distinctiveness and appeal.
Product differentiation will arise from a laser focus on the fact that the Modi government’s pro-rich, supply-side policies have contributed to unprecedented inequality, unemployment, and the death of manufacturing (despite hollow claims of Make in India and expensive corporate doles like the Rs 1.84 lakh crore corporate tax cut and productivity-linked incentives). The proportion of income captured by the top 1 per cent has risen from 21 per cent in 2014 to 25 per cent in 2020. Government data shows that one in three graduates and postgraduates is jobless. In “New India”, engineers work as coolies while PhDs apply for railway peon jobs.
These are the issues that INDIA must take to the people in the upcoming general election. It will not be an easy battle. The Modi government controls institutions, investigation agencies, and large sections of the media. As has been documented again and again, the government puts relentless pressure on social media giants to suppress the opposition’s messaging, while the BJP’s hate factory is given free rein. With the Adani Group being handed over swathes of India’s infrastructure while being permitted to violate all sorts of national laws, the BJP’s funding is practically limitless.
INDIA currently is only 2 percentage points behind the BJP-led alliance in several national opinion polls, which expands to about 5 points once you exclude states like Kerala where the INDIA vote is double counted (since the BJP isn’t a player). To make up this deficit, the Congress and its allies need at least another 5 per cent jump in votes. This is unlikely to come from the ‘upper’ castes and the wealthy whose opinions are most reflected in mainstream commentary. A much more promising source is the large OBC community, which is bearing the brunt of economic distress. This is not an argument for shying away from calls for a caste census, but for going all in.
Amitabh Dubey is a Congress member. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)