The first day of the G20 proceedings in New Delhi has exceeded the expectations of the strategic community in more ways than one. India’s G20 presidency has been marked by deftness and pragmatism, with the country writing its success in a new syntax, a new ABCD. There are at least four key takeaways on day 1 itself.
Inclusion, negotiation
A – African Union. Under India’s leadership, the G20 is now G21, withthe inclusion of the African Union as a full member. The commitment, which started with Prime Minister Narendra Modi conducting a “Summit for the Global South” in the wee days of taking over the G20 baton from Indonesia, has been made to match the rhetoric and hope it generated with respect to India championing the causes of the developing world at the high table.
With the inclusion of the African Union, India has delivered on its promise. The move, welcomed by the European Union and other G7 members, also signifies a balancing of China’s traction in the region — a region seen as friendly to China and Russia, and is home to several of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects alongside a waning western influence. This mass inclusion, engineered by an India riding on the trust it has invoked as G20 leader, is a big win that would truly serve as the lasting legacy of India’s historic presidency. India has indeed mainstreamed the hitherto marginalised groups in the global community of states.
B stands for two vectors: Bilaterals and the Biofuel Alliance. The key bilateral meeting with US President Joe Biden reiterated the fact that India’s multi-alignment is not an equal distribution, regardless of the optics.
India has moved forward with an unprecedented deepening of strategic ties with the US, spanning critical and emerging technologies, defence technology transfer, jet engines, and predator drones. This has occurred during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, in which India has chosen not to take sides. This move not only directly aims to enhance India’s military preparedness against its arch-rival China, but also intends to shape the contours of India’s long-term geostrategic and defence capabilities.
Another significant bilateral was the one with Rishi Sunak, the Indian-origin prime minister of the UK with whom India is close to finalising a big Free trade Agreement (FTA). The deal, a stated objective of the British government since Boris Johnson’s days, has reached advanced stages after the two sides fast-tracked the talks. Consensus has been reached on 19 out of 26 chapters of the document. Discord remains on the question of mobility, with the Indian side insisting on it while the British side remains unrelenting. However, the massive economic value of this agreement cannot be overstated. Furthermore, negotiations are also underway on a separate bilateral investment treaty. The G20 trade and investment ministerial meeting held in Jaipur last month has also given impetus to the FTA talks.
India’s trade with the UK enjoys an export surplus, and an FTA will be crucial in improving India’s overall balance of global trade, especially given its massive trade deficit with countries like China and Russia. The deal will also be a major step forward for the economic stability of a post-Brexit Britain, which is struggling with myriad economic challenges. London has been unsuccessfully trying to negotiate an FTA with Washington, and domestic pressure to conclude at least one successful deal is high. From New Delhi’s perspective, this is likely to boost India’s negotiations in at least two other important trade deals: one with the European Free Trade Association—the four-nation bloc of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland—and the second with the mega FTA with the EU, also a work in progress. With the Modi-Sunak bilateral meeting asserting the importance of FTA, headway is expected on that front.
The second vector of the ‘B’ is the wonderfully negotiated Biofuel Alliance with the US and Brazil. India is looking to increase ethanol blending with petrol to 20 per cent by 2025. It is worthwhile to note that ethanol can be extracted from sugarcane, of which India is a huge producer, and maize, of which the US and Brazil are massive producers. In the transition to cleaner energy, this tango is likely to work well and also generate employment while reducing India’s massive dependence on imported crude oil, thereby providing economic respite to the end consumer.
Also read: At the G20 minus Xi, EU looking to further its China+1 strategy—partnership with Asia
Engagement, diplomatic efficiency
Going further, ‘C’ represents the Connectivity Partnership between the US, EU, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and India. It is a truly big ticket announcement that will be a game-changer for India and its partners. Drawing on digital, maritime, and rail connectivity, this initiative is designed not only as a fitting response to China’s BRI but also as an alternative to India’s involvement with Russia and Iran in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which, until now, has been New Delhi’s sole connectivity project in that region. Furthermore, it is also a wonderful example of “freindshoring” by the G 7, involving the shifting of production and supply lines with trusted partners to enhance the resilience of global economic routes. Additionally, it underscores the growing multipolarity of the global economic order, as middle-order powers are vigorously multi-aligning in “China plus one” diversifications. This initiative, hailed by many, is a diplomatic victory for the US, successfully engaging Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both believed to support the Russia-China economic camp, in a mutual win-win collaboration. From the EU’s calculus, it boosts the bloc’s core connectivity push in various parts of the Global South. Overall, this historic connectivity partnership is a game-changing approach to fostering mutually winsome linkages instead of risky dependencies.
This historic connectivity partnership is also slated to grow, with more European actors expressing interest in joining. France, Germany, and Italy are on board already, and Greece will likely follow suit. The impact of this ‘C’ initiative is magnified by the absence of another ‘C’, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who chose to skip the G20 summit under India’s leadership and allowed his various mouthpieces to berate and undermine India’s truly intersectional global moment. Serves him right!
Now, moving on to ‘D’. Last but not least, D stands for the ‘Delhi Declaration ’, a development that almost everyone had given up hope on. Despite insurmountable geopolitical divisions on Ukraine, a consensus was reached. The value of this deftly crafted consensus increases manifold because all previous ministerial-level G20 summits including this year’s foreign ministers and finance ministers meetings, had failed to produce one. The timing couldn’t have been more perfect, with this momentous announcement coming just as the first day was wrapping up, and delegates were readying for dinner. The ‘declaration dessert’ served before dinner struck the right notes with both the delegates and the keen global strategic community. A feather in the cap of India’s stellar diplomatic efficiency under PM Modi and his team, the Delhi Declaration will be a textbook example of what diplomacy truly means in the times to come.
The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)