Why India supports the invincible Sheikh Hasina—who is censoring democracy in Bangladesh

File photo of Sheikh Hasina | Photo: David Greedy | Bloomberg News

The answer involves Beijing and Islamabad.

Sheikh Hasina is prime minister of Bangladesh for the third consecutive term but her victory is as much Indian, because Delhi held its nose when allegations of rampant human rights abuses, extra-judicial killings and rampant corruption against Hasina’s Awami League (AL) were made over the last five years. Moreover, when Hasina threw opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) leader, Khaleda Zia into jail in February—she’s still behind bars—thereby preventing her from leading her party in the polls, and emasculated the Election Commission into silence last week when several BNP polling agents were prevented from entering polling stations, Delhi kept very quiet.

India, in fact, went one step further. It actually persuaded the BNP leadership to contest, despite the fact that neither Khaleda Zia nor her son Tarique Rahman (he has been in exile in the UK since 2007) were leading from the front. Delhi realised two things: First, the credibility of the election, and Hasina as prime minister, could not be challenged; last time around in 2013, the BNP had refused to contest and Hasina’s sweeping victory had been called into question. If the BNP did not contest again, the Awami League’s victory would be practically hollow. That could not be allowed.

Second, with this election, Delhi has attempted to bring about a post-Khaleda Zia politics in Bangladesh. Certainly, the BNP has fared dismally, winning only 7 seats out of 298 (elections to two seats will be held later), while the AL has won 288 out of 298 seats. But if the BNP can hold its nerve and contest the 2023 election, again without Khaleda Zia who will be 78 years old and Tarique Rahman (who has been sentenced in absentia for 17 years for his role in the 2004 bomb blast at a rally where Hasina was speaking), then the malevolent shadow of the Pakistani establishment that has been hovering over Bangladesh since 1971 could finally be receding.

The BNP realises the harm it did to itself when it did not participate in the polls in 2013. This time too it wanted to sit out, but the danger of being politically wiped out was very real. For the BNP it was a tough choice. It ultimately chose to contest, but the fight seemed to have already gone out of it. It complained to the EC that 221 polling agents weren’t allowed to do their work; the EC looked the other way.

Meanwhile, the Hasina-fication of Bangladesh, it is partly true, is certainly supported by a Modi-fied India. A strong man at the head is naturally empathetic to the idea of strong leaders elsewhere— note that Modi gets along with Vladimir Putin and wants to get along with Donald Trump.

But much more than the personality factor is the foreign policy associated with Bangladesh. India needs to have a friendly neighbour in the east, one that is largely free of Chinese or Pakistani influence. If that means Khaleda Zia must remain in jail where she was sent in February because she had allegedly stolen a paltry sum of 6.52 crore Taka or that Tarique Rahman, now the chairman of the BNP, should remain in hiding in the UK, then so be it.

China’s relentless expansion of influence into Bangladesh began with Chinese president Xi Jinping in 2016 offering $24 billion to promote both military and civilian cooperation. Dhaka is now buying two submarines from China (mystified observers want to know why), while the Chittagong port is being redeveloped by a Chinese company.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh security forces have alleged that Pakistan’s ISI laundered large sums of money into Bangladesh to influence the polls.

In supporting a friendly, if autocratic, Hasina in power, India hopes she will tamp down on the Chinese. Winning back the neighbourhood, one country at a time, is essential for the Modi government as it goes into the polls in a few months.

The irony that Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib-ur Rehman’s daughter is shutting down democratic safety valves, escapes no one. But Hasina also got a free pass when the BNP allied with the Jamaat-i-Islami, which was involved in the killing of hundreds of AL cadres in 1971 and remains closely linked with the Pakistani establishment.

For the moment, Hasina has shown maturity by refusing to celebrate her victory, but also put out warning signals that dissent won’t be tolerated. On Tuesday, the Dhaka Tribune’sKhulna correspondent was arrested ostensibly because he reported ‘wrong’ information about the Khulna election.

Hasina has demonstrated that she is invincible because both Delhi and Beijing want her badly. If she can reach out across the political divide and try and revive the spirit of 1971, her victory will go a long way in reassuring an insecure BNP that there is life beyond Khaleda Zia and her family.

However one-sided this election, it was imperative that Hasina return to rule Bangladesh. The first step in this project has been completed. Now is the time to mount the second.