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HomeOpinionGlobal PrintTaliban stands divided. Why it has implications for the world and India

Taliban stands divided. Why it has implications for the world and India

From the Kabul hotel blast to ex-president Hamid Karzai’s UAE trip, what Taliban power struggle means for the world.

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suicide bomber in Kabul Monday blew himself up at a hotel popular among visiting Chinese nationals, giving rise to speculation that the Taliban was losing control over its suicide squads. The Kabul hotel attack came one day after clashes between the Taliban security forces and the Pakistani military across the Durand Line, between Spin Boldak and Chaman, in which seven Pakistanis lost their lives. The Pakistan embassy in Kabul was attacked only a fortnight ago, and a senior Pakistani diplomat was targeted.

At about the same time, former Afghan president Hamid Karzai, under house arrest in Kabul since the Taliban seized power on 15 August last year, was finally allowed to leave for a visit to the UAE and Germany with his close aide and confidante, Omar Zakhilwal.

So, what’s going on in Afghanistan? Why are the Taliban, said to be proteges of the Pakistan military establishment, turning on their masters? Why, indeed, is Karzai being allowed to fly out to Germany after meeting with the US Special envoy to Afghanistan, Thomas West, in the UAE?


Also read: Taliban effect? Ancient Kabul citadel’s revamp in limbo without help from ‘non-responsive’ India


Internal differences out in the open

Clearly, the long-speculated rift between the senior Taliban leadership seems to be finally out in the open. Afghan analysts who spoke to ThePrint on the condition of anonymity said that differences of opinion on leading the country are surfacing between Taliban supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Mullah Yaqoob, acting defence minister and son of Mullah Omar, the powerful founder of the terror group.

The analyst said that Mullah Yaqoob—who had fancied himself as a contender for the post when the previous Taliban Amir, Mullah Mansoor, was killed in a US drone strike in 2016—was beaten to the game when Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian-born close confidante of Osama bin Laden, threw his weight behind Haibatullah.

Now it seems both have clear differences on the future of Afghanistan. While Haibatullah favours a seriously conservative, puritanical approach to the Sharia, Yaqoob says that the pursuit of Sharia should coexist with basic norms followed by the international community: meaning Afghanistan cannot regress into its earlier incarnation but must learn to rejoin the world.

The Kabul hotel blast—in which two foreigners were injured but none killed—and Karzai’s journey to Germany are two manifestations of this struggle for power in the heart of the Taliban today.

Karzai’s travels abroad are most significant. His wife and three daughters were recently allowed to go to Tehran and Istanbul for a short holiday, but Karzai was not allowed to leave. The fact that he is now using his passport is a good sign. It is said that Yaqoob pushed for Karzai to go abroad—like he had insisted last year that Abdullah Abdullah, CEO and second only to Karzai in political importance, be allowed to fly to Delhi occasionally.


Also read:Taliban is reaching your living rooms, and YouTubers are helping


A tense power tussle

Could this constitute an ice-breaker between Afghanistan and the US-led Western nations, which have so far resisted opening a dialogue with the Taliban? The fact that Thomas West happened to be in the UAE when Karzai landed and that he met with other Taliban leaders is undoubtedly significant.

Haibatullah, on the other hand, is believed to strongly support the Ministry of Vice and Virtue, which has said that girls should not be allowed to study after Class 6, or more recently, that women cannot use public parks and playgrounds. The flogging of three women in Logar province, an hour outside of Kabul, is also said to have been done to please the ultraconservative head of the Taliban.

The struggle for power in Afghanistan is evidently heating up.

Another way of looking at this power struggle is through the involvement of the Pakistani military establishment, which is said to have supported Haibatullah for the last several years. It is claimed that he was in Pakistani custody when Kabul fell in August 2021. It is also said that he had been talking to the Pakistani military since his escape to Quetta when the Soviets invaded in 1979.

Certainly, Mullah Yaqoob is an interesting figure. He travelled to the UAE when Karzai was there in early December, meeting UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Speculation is rife that he was behind Karzai’s effort to travel abroad and meet Western leaders.

Whichever way this alleged rift between Haibatullah and Yaqoob turns out will be significant— not just for the region but for Afghans and the world at large. If Yaqoob wins, Afghanistan is sure to follow a less conservative course. If girls are allowed to return to school and women encouraged to become more equal, the world may be prompted to lift its sanctions on Afghanistan and restart much-needed funding for the country.

How will this impact India? Certainly, India’s refusal to give student visas to Afghans and to resume their medical treatment has put a big brake on the Narendra Modi government’s efforts to expand its influence in Kabul. India may be left playing catch-up in the next few weeks and months if it refuses to adjust to the emerging ground realities in its neighbourhood.

The author is a consulting editor. She tweets @jomalhotra. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)

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