While Indians were busy celebrating the country’s global triumph and commiserating about its terrestrial adventures, two important reports went almost unnoticed. The eighth annual All India Survey on Higher Education 2018-19 was released by the Ministry of Human Resource Development last week. It coincided with the release of four-monthly report ‘Unemployment in India – A Statistical Profile’ for May-August 2019 by the Centre for Monitoring India Economy.
Put together, both these surveys point to a simmering volcano of educated unemployment. This could be the visible face of the economic slowdown and could well become a political challenge to the regime.
Strange as it might look, the quality of statistics available for our higher education institutes has been much poorer than our statistics on school education. Sensing this gap, the central government instituted AISHE in 2011-12. We now have official (self-reported and unverified) statistics on the number and nature of higher education institutions, student enrolment, and pass-out figures along with the numbers for teaching and non-teaching staff. Sadly, this official survey does not tell us much about the quality of teaching, learning or research. There is no equivalent of Pratham’s ASER survey or the NCERT’s All India School Education Survey.
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Degree holders without skills
The recent AISHE 2018-19 survey flatters to deceive. It tells us that the number of universities in the country is now 993, more than 50 per cent up from the 642 universities the country had in 2011-12. The fine print brings bad news: the increase is fuelled primarily by mushrooming of private universities. Of the 351 universities added in the last eight years, 199 were private universities approved by state governments. The report tells us little about the quality of education in these private universities. As someone who sat on the University Grants Commission (UGC) for a while, I can say that many of these are low-grade teaching shops that only bring disrepute to the idea of education. Their growth is not good news.
In terms of enrolment, we now have 3.74 crore students doing something or the other in higher education; the number stands at 3.34 crore if we consider only those who are pursuing proper, regular courses and not the joke that happens in the name of distant learning. This might look impressive unless we remember that this is only 26 per cent of our population aged between 18 and 23. So, about three-fourths of those who should be in higher education are still not there. Our higher equation system awards a little less than one crore degrees (90.92 lakh to be precise) every year. Most of these (about 65 lakh) are students who get an undergraduate degree. Most of the students with such degrees learn very little in terms of knowledge, life-skills or any other skills relevant to employability. For a country of our size, we produce less than two lakh MPhil/PhD degree holders annually who presumably have some research skills. Our higher education faces both a quantitative and a qualitative challenge.
One good feature of the report is that it gives social breakup of students and teachers. At least in quantitative terms, women have nearly bridged the gender gap: nearly 49 per cent of students enrolled in higher education are women. In terms of overall enrolment, the real crisis is not among the Scheduled Castes (14.9 per cent of students, compared to 16 per cent share in population) or even Scheduled Tribes (5.5 per cent, as compared to 8 per cent share in population), both slightly below their population share, but among Muslims (5.2 per cent) – their share in higher education is about one-third of what it should be as per their share in the population (14.2 per cent as per last census). The same situation prevails among the teachers too, where even the SCs (8.5 per cent) and STs (2.3 per cent) continue to be seriously under-represented despite legally mandated reservations. We also have the challenge of equity in educational opportunities.
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Educated but unemployed
Now match this information with the latest estimates generated by the CMIE survey on unemployment. The latest report for May-August 2019 points to a steady increase in the unemployment rate, which has risen from 7.03 per cent in May to 8.19 per cent at the end of August. (The methodology adopted by CMIE is a little different from that adopted by the official National Sample Survey Office, hence the estimates tend to vary). This is much above the current global average of 4.95 per cent as estimated by the International Labour Organisation.
What is most striking here is that unemployment levels rise rapidly with a rise in education level. Unemployment is negligible among the uneducated and those who did not go beyond primary school, mainly because they cannot afford to remain unemployed. Unemployment level jumps to 15 per cent, roughly double the national average, among those who are graduates and above.
This level of educated unemployment in India is alarming by any standards. The CMIE tells us that there are a little over 10 crore graduates in the country, and of them 6.3 crore are in the “labour force”, i.e. willing and available for work. Of these, 5.35 crore have some kind of employment. That leaves nearly one crore (94 lakh to be precise) persons, mostly youth, with graduate or higher degree who do not have any job whatsoever. The same survey also tells us that while more women are getting education, the rate of unemployment among women is 17.6 per cent, more than double the rate for men (6.1 per cent). So, more women in higher education could soon become bad news.
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A ticking time bomb
Now put both the reports together and you are looking at a perfect explosion. Nearly one-sixth of highly educated youth are unemployed. To this pool of about one crore educated unemployed, we add another one crore every year – those who pass out with degrees from higher education institutions. This pool has more women than ever before. Consider the fact that most of these graduates are not just unemployed, they are also unemployable as they bring little knowledge or skills to the market. Add economic slowdown to this equation and you know why this could be a ticking time bomb. Far from taking in new recruits, companies are retrenching their existing employees. So, these fresh degree-holders with aspirations but without skills are being pushed into a market that is not ready to receive any more.
This is exactly the kind of situation that has led to social unrest and street riots in many parts of the world. Instead of any serious attempt to address this brewing crisis, we get all kinds of distractions. We are concerned about triple talaq, Kashmir’s integration, Chandrayaan landing and Howdy, Modi! Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is busy managing headlines and pleasing the corporates. But we hear very little about any serious initiative to tackle the growing crisis of the educated unemployed. Are we waiting for the crisis to erupt? Or, is it time to say ‘Howdy’ to our youth?
The author is the national president of Swaraj India. Views are personal.
Mass production of poor quality candidates need to be stopped
Congress ne 70 saal me 8% gdp banai thi jise bjp ne Pichhle 5 saal me tabhah kar dia he usspe koi Baat nahi ho rahi he naye-2 jumle leke public ko ullu banane Aa jate ho
Love Yogendra Yadav’s sliming of “private universities” when even the most vaunted public university in the country cannot rank within the top 320 universities in the world on the Times Higher Education and QS ratings! The fact is that this decline has been happening for a long time. Smug in a state of self-deception over how great Indian educational institutions are, especially the much bragged about “three letter colleges” in the country, India’s authorities conveniently forgot that they needed to innovate, invest, and improve. The very first THE supplement had ranked the IITs among the top 10 institutions in the world more than two and a half decades ago, and India’s policymakers likely forgot that these rankings were fiercely competitive and that they changed from year to year. In the meantime, India tried bragging about how good school education in the country was, and after coming in at the bottom of the list in it’s only attempt at participating in the PISA process, got out of that annual evaluation completely. Other nations worked in the meantime to improve their educational methods, stressing on advanced evaluation methodology, while India stuck to an antiquated system of examinations that has not changed from the mid 19th century. When students’ talents and weaknesses are not properly understood, it is impossible to help them reinforce their academic strengths and come up to a needed standard where they might need help.
India still has the potential to make a positive mark. The country has a large number of smart young people. If only the young weren’t let down as badly as they are by every entity that wields authority, the country would do well. All that it would take for India to have a positive reputation again, would be for work to be done in processes that the world has found effective in improving educational performance. That, perhaps, is going to be the most difficult thing to get the relevant authorities to do.
Good analysis by Mehul Kamdar. I would like to stres upon the point made “Innovate, Invest and improve.” This should be the motto of the regulatory bodies and review the existing standards to improvise on an ongoing basis to ensure that all stakeholders; Government and Private participate and contribute positively.
OK. Where was all this outrage when Congress was in power? India’s education system is a JOKE in terms of Research and output. We already know this.
Thank you for your Daily Rant, Captain Obvious (Yogendra Yadav).
You accept the truth of his writings and as you do not have a counter, you are trying to shoot the messenger. Did you follow his writings when UPA was in power?
India can’t be a middle income country with services alone. Manufacturing needs to grow and for that labor laws needs to be amended. The solution is not knee jerk socialism as Yadav implies but more market oriented capitalism.
“Manufacturing needs to grow and for that labor laws needs to be amended. ”
Any proof for this assertion. In last thirty years, wage growth in manufacturing has been stagnant while productivity has increased more than 700%.
Pretty silly to think that growth = wage growth, don’t you think? Getting the first step on the ladder is more important than a rocketing pay check. As for proof, there is a billion and one around, start with post-war Japan.
Did Japanese workers ever become poorer when their country’s GDP was increasing? It is pretty silly to equate development = income growth for the top 1 percent don’t you think?
A clever and tactfully managed anti propaganda against New India from some Pakistani sympathizer. As per the author main objective of this reporting is against abrogation of article 370 and by hook and crook to creat sympathy for those plundered India for 70 years!! Good effort no doubt but everyone not so fool as the author believe.
You accept the truth of his writings and as you do not have a counter, you are trying to shoot the messenger. What is the basis for your assertion that this is about article 370?
Except news portals, channels are more keen to give headlines to New Father of the Nation and Deputy Father of Nation. How long we are going allow harping 370. If Congress can be blamed for keep it for 70 years, are we going to allow BJP to use abrogation for another 70 years until they achieve their agenda of Akhand Bharat
And these people with the minimum of capacity for critical thinking will be the ones who will support the BJP. A lose-lose or win-win situation.
In one Indian state after another, the window on the demographic dividend is slowly closing. Starting with the most developed, with the lowest birth rates. Going on to UP and Bihar, where birth rates are still above replacement levels, but the quality of education / skills is the least satisfactory.
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