There is a general consensus that given its growing economy and ‘youth bulge’, India is well on its way to becoming a developed country by 2047. As, by then, the third-largest economy, India would logically seek to become a world power exercising absolute strategic autonomy to safeguard its national interests and exerting the desired influence in the comity of nations. It goes without saying that to achieve this, India would have to transform its military.
Our principal adversary, China began the transformation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 2015 keeping in view its national goal of becoming a great power by 2049. Timelines were clearly spelt out. Complete mechanisation with significant “informationisation” by 2020, acceleration of integrated development of mechanisation, “informatisation”, and “intelligentisation” by 2027, comprehensive advance modernisation of national defence by 2035, and full transformation of the PLA into a world-class force by 2049.
Unfortunately, the election manifestos of our two leading political parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC), reflect a lack of visionary and holistic approaches toward national security and transformation of the military, settling instead for a simple ‘to-do’ list for incremental change. The manifestos mirror what the strategic community unanimously says — that India does not have a formal national security vision, lacks a coherent national security strategy and defence policy, and goes about managing national security affairs from ‘crisis to crisis’.
National security missing from electoral discourse
In the 2014 election campaign, one of the major strategies of the BJP was to accuse the Congress of being weak with respect to external and internal security. In the wake of the Pulwama terrorist attack and the surgical air strikes on the Balakot terrorist camp, the BJP’s 2019 campaign was driven by national security and, to a great extent, responsible for its thumping victory.
In this campaign, national security issues are conspicuous by their absence. The BJP has much to answer for regarding national security due to the Chinese intrusions in 2020, loss of 1,000 sq km of territory earlier controlled/patrolled by India, the ongoing crisis in Manipur, and lack of progress on military transformation. Prudently, it has remained silent. Apart from rhetorical clichés about killing terrorists in Pakistan, denial of any loss of territory in Eastern Ladakh, POK being our territory, and Congress introducing religion-based reservation in armed forces, national security has been absent from BJP’s election campaign.
Logically, the Congress should have made the lackadaisical performance of the BJP a major election issue. However, it shied away from doing so due to the fear of losing the perception battle based on its own dismal track record (2004-14) and a pro-government media, which only propagates the ruling party’s political narrative.
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National security vision and strategy
Surprisingly, the BJP manifesto is silent on a ‘Viksit Sena for Viksit Bharat 2047’. There is no mention of a long-term national security vision and strategy for the transformation of armed forces.
The manifesto is silent on the threats from China, the volatile situation on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and the need to restore status quo ante April 2020. Safeguarding our strategic interests in the Indian Ocean Region has been highlighted without mentioning the threat.
The Congress does no better. However, it specifically commits itself to formulating a comprehensive National Security Strategy, for which the BJP government had tasked the National Security Advisor (NSA) in 2018. It specifically highlights the serious threat posed by China and the loss of “2,000 square km” of territory in Eastern Ladakh and that “PM Narendra Dev Modi gave a clean chit to China and weakened our negotiating position”. Though not specifically mentioned in the manifesto but widely reported by the media, Congress has committed to restoring status quo ante April 2020 on the LAC.
Defence policy for military transformation
Both manifestos are silent on a comprehensive defence policy to transform the armed forces. However, the Congress promises to review and issue a fresh Raksha Mantri’s Operational Directive, which it had issued in 2009 and remains the de facto functional defence policy, to cater for the two-front threat.
The BJP manifesto highlights its laudable reform of appointing the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and mentions in passing, “We will further establish the military theatre commands….” without giving any timeline. So far, there has been no tangible progress toward establishing theatre commands, and the government has failed to enforce its political will. The Congress promises to institutionalise the process of appointing the CDS to ensure transparency and military consensus but says nothing about theatre commands.
Without any mention of a holistic modernisation for transformation, the BJP cryptically mentions, “We will further equip the Armed Forces and Central Armed Police Forces with modern state of the art weapons, equipment and technology…”. The Congress promises the same and aims to expand domestic capacity to manufacture defence and security hardware and equipment. Ironically, the BJP does not highlight its flagship reform — Aatmanirbharta in defence, probably due to tardy progress.
The BJP highlights the development of border infrastructure, which indeed is a success story.
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Higher defence management
The Congress has promised to bring the National Security Council and the office of the NSA and all agencies controlled by them under the scrutiny of Parliament.
The BJP conducted major reforms with respect to the national security architecture in 2018 but has generally remained averse to scrutiny by Parliament.
Other domains of national security
The BJP has promised to regulate and monitor cyber protection agencies and infrastructure, and issue robust cyber security policies. It is also committed to strengthening digital sovereignty and neutralising threats.
Congress is also committed to formulating suitable policies for data, cyber, financial communications and trade route security.
Defence budget
The Congress categorically commits itself to reversing the decline in defence expenditure as a proportion of total expenditure. There is no doubt that from 1963 to 2010, the defence budget under successive governments was three per cent and above as a percentage of the GDP.
Under the BJP government, for the last 10 years, the defence budget has been below three per cent of the GDP. Even now, the party has made no commitment to increasing it, thus putting a question mark on its plans for military transformation.
Women in security force
Despite the glib political rhetoric of both the BJP and the Congress, the Supreme Court and high courts have been largely responsible for giving equal opportunities to women in the armed forces and CAPF.
The Congress manifesto says that the party is committed to expanding opportunities for women in both combat and non-combat roles. In the CAPF, it promises 33 per cent representation.
Welfare of soldiers
The Congress has committed to redressing the anomalies of the One Rank One Pension (OROP) scheme brought about by the BJP. It has also promised to scrap the Agnipath scheme and restore the status quo ante to grant economic and social security for our soldiers. Anticipating an adverse fallout, the BJP manifesto neither defends this “landmark reform”, which was politically sold to the people and defended by the army, nor commits to modifying it to make it more attractive.
Both the parties have failed to commit themselves to making humane policies for soldiers disabled while in service and not to drag them to the Supreme Court after favourable judgments of the Armed Forces Tribunal. This is one promise that the BJP made in its 2014 manifesto and failed to uphold.
Internal security
The BJP reiterates its commitment against terrorism. It promises to eradicate Left-wing extremism, but remains silent on Jammu and Kashmir and the situation in Manipur. It also promises to implement the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) on which the Congress has maintained silence to avoid any adverse fallout.
The Congress commits to clamping down on hate speech, hate crimes, communal conflicts, crimes against women, mob lynching, police encounters and bulldozer justice. National Intelligence Grid and National Counter Terrorism Centre — the unfinished agenda of 2008 — would be operationalised. It also promises to strengthen State police but remains silent on police reforms as mandated by the Supreme Court. It makes no specific commitments on Jammu and Kashmir, Left-wing extremism, and Manipur. Both parties commit themselves to clamping down on the threat of drugs.
Viksit Bharat needs Viksit Sena
India cannot become a great power without a transformed military. The least one expected from the principal political parties was an outline of the national security vision, strategy and defence policy for the transformation of the armed forces backed by requisite financial commitment with brief elaboration of salient issues. What we have got is an incoherent to-do list without the necessary financial commitments and timelines.
We seek to become a developed nation by 2047, but we can’t even name our existing and potential adversaries. How will we transform our armed forces to cater to their threats? Let there be no doubt that we can’t have a Viksit Bharat without a Viksit Sena. It is time for the political parties to get back to the drawing board.
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)