The inside story of India’s three former service chiefs’ visit to Taiwan. Government institutions are conducting a scenario planning exercise for a Taiwan Contingency. Beijing’s economic deflation woes deepen. The Biden administration imposes investment restrictions. Chinascope brings you the exclusive story of what happened behind the visit by three former chiefs to Taiwan.
China over the week
The optics of having three former Indian service chiefs in Taipei wasn’t going to go down easy into the night. Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria (IAF), Karambir Singh (Navy), and Manoj Mukund Naravane (Army) were invited by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Ketagalan Forum. They were accompanied by two other former military officials from the Army and the Navy, one of whom has a history of working on scenario simulation and planning for National Defence College and Army War College.
The author was at the Ketagalan Forum and spoke to multiple sources to corroborate the context of the visit, which was certainly not ‘private’.
The forum was a precedent for carrying out more in-depth scenario planning and other discussions with the Taiwan side. Only one of the former chiefs, Admiral Karambir Singh, officially spoke on a panel at the forum, raising questions about the others’ presence in Taiwan. The remarks by Admiral Singh were shared on YouTube by the organisers.
The visiting delegation of five members held closed-door talks with the Institute of National Defence and Security Research, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defence’s primary think tank, where all members of the visiting delegation spoke to the Taiwanese side. Such a meeting between former Indian services chiefs and Taiwanese officials would help establish a communication channel between the two militaries, something the Taiwanese side was keen to see happen.
The visiting delegation maintained their visit was ‘private’, but the smoke plum around their visit suggests otherwise, according to multiple official sources that the author spoke to on the condition of anonymity.
According to a source, the Ministry of External Affairs is carrying out a scenario mapping exercise for a future Taiwan Contingency in which Beijing decides to launch a full-scale attack on Taiwan. The sources close to the scenario planning have confirmed that similar exercises are being carried out in different government organisations to assess the impact of a potential Taiwan Contingency.
Explanations about the three chiefs’ visit were officially shared with the media and other channels to avoid immediate retaliation from China.
Some government institutions suffer from a culture of appeasement towards Beijing – an in-built and hardened attitude – but others are now trying to shake that approach, according to another source.
The visit by the three former Indian services chiefs made a splash on Chinese social media.
“…the three of them have just left office from 2021 to 2022, and their group visit to Taiwan is obviously not just for tourism. The information cooperation between Taiwan and India is no longer news, and private military exchanges are obviously also going on,” said a military blogger from Beijing with 3.88 million followers.
Wu Tong, a military blogger, made a video explaining the context of the visit by three former chiefs and claiming that India wants to play an active role in the Taiwan Strait.
“Although, the Indian media claimed that the three former Indian Army chiefs didn’t represent India’s official position, it is self-evidence of what India is planning,” wrote Shao Yongling, a military commentator, on WeChat.
The anxiety in New Delhi stems from the growing recognition of the need to prepare for a future Taiwan Contingency while trying not to anger China in the current context. Multiple sources that the author spoke to confirm the anxiety over the visit of the three chiefs, which was why the explanations of a ‘private tour’ were offered.
The cat is out of the bag on India’s position vis-à-vis Taiwan, and a new chapter may begin.
Meanwhile, a new Pew Survey suggests that 43 per cent of Indians view Taiwan unfavourably and 37 per cent favourably. While many people were surprised by the result, the author wasn’t because Taiwan has dawned on the consciousness of the Indian public in recent years – that too linked to the tensions with China. Countries viewed favourably have cultural capital – like a football team or a music band – which makes them desirable and helps change minds.
Taiwan has yet to register such a cultural capital in the minds of Indians – beyond the geopolitics. But a 37 per cent favourable view towards Taipei in India is still significant.
Last week, Chinascope told you about the risk of deflation looming on the horizon for Beijing. The latest economic data released last week suggests that the Chinese economy has fallen into the deflation trap.
Residents of Beijing are grabbing a bargain with a 3-yuan (Rs 34) breakfast buffet, resulting from a poor consumer appetite. The buffet includes three types of rice porridge, sour, spicy soup and milk – a delight for bargain haulers. But the magically low prices are because of the deflationary factors driving the price to a new low.
The big businesses offer whopping discounts to attract customers as spending across major cities remains weak.
The Chinese public didn’t receive direct support, as in some high-income countries. Despite the Chinese economy opening late last year, the consumer splurge many had expected didn’t quite see a rebound.
The chorus for a direct cash infusion through a stimulus package has grown among the economists seeking to rescue the Chinese economy from going the ‘Japan way’. Tokyo, for decades, battled with deflation as the economic growth rate slumped. Beijing appears to be battling something similar.
“China is a ticking time bomb…China is in trouble. China was growing at 8% a year to maintain growth. Now close to 2% a year,” said US President Joe Biden at a political fundraiser in Utah.
Also read: China finds India’s semiconductor goals unrealistic. It is waiting for New Delhi to fail
China in world news
President Biden has signed an executive order restricting US firms – including private equity and venture capital firms – from investing in China high-end technology companies in fields such as semiconductors, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence.
Private equity groups such as General Atlantic, Warburg Pincus, and Carlyle Group have continued to invest in China, bypassing the scrutiny by US Congress. In one of my past columns, I explained how China’s sovereign wealth funds have relations with private equity firms in the US and the UK – a restriction by the US was expected.
The latest executive order – implemented by the US Treasury Department – will end the era of US firms investing in China. Beijing will view Biden’s latest executive order as further evidence that Washington is trying to contain China by targeting critical sectors of growth. Beijing will only redouble efforts to compete with the US – and potentially target US companies as retaliation.
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The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist. He was previously a China media journalist at the BBC World Service. He is currently a MOFA Taiwan Fellow based in Taipei and tweets @aadilbrar. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)