On 28 July, the United States announced $345 million in military aid to Taiwan. China’s top political advisor and President Xi Jinping’s number two, Wang Huning, visited Tibet last week. South China Morning Post reported that People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force commander Li Yuchao has been under investigation by anti-corruption forces. This week’s Chinascope examines Beijing’s negotiating tactics and a bargain for supremacy over emerging economies.
China over the week
Rumours about an investigation into corrupt officials at the top of PLARF have surfaced recently. We have learned that Li is being investigated on corruption charges, according to anonymous sources that spoke to SCMP.
His current deputy, Liu Guangbin, is also being probed, along with his former colleague Zhang Zhenzhong, who is under investigation on graft charges. According to the same sources, the investigation allegedly started after China’s former defence minister Wei Fenghe retired in March 2023.
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China’s defence ministry hasn’t yet confirmed the news. A crisis within the PLARF would have significant implications for China’s nuclear weapons modernisation efforts, which have concerned many in the Indo-Pacific.
Meanwhile, Xi inspected the Western Theatre Command Air Force on 26 July, ahead of China’s Army Day, which falls on 1 August.
“It is necessary to promote new equipment and forces to accelerate the formation of combat effectiveness and organically integrate them into the combat system,” said the President at Western Theatre Command Air Force base in Chengdu.
As the corruption scandal hangs on the PLA’s head, Xi is spending significant time emphasising the supremacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the army. Ideological teaching is crucial for Xi, which is evident every time he goes on an inspection tour.
Not every day do we see Wang Huning, Xi’s ideological tsar, visiting Tibet on an inspection trip. That’s what happened this past week.
Wang visited the border areas, including Nyingchi, and the capital Lhasa from Tuesday to Thursday. His seniority in the Politburo Standing Committee and his association with Xi make him one of the most significant visitors to Tibet since Xi’s visit to Lhasa in 2022.
In Nyingchi, just across from India’s Arunachal Pradesh, the political advisor visited Xigamenba Village in Milin City, Yani National Wetland Park, and Gala Village in Bayi District.
Wang said there is a need to “enhance the development capabilities of border areas”, alluding to the poverty alleviation campaign and Xiaokang villages that China has been building in the border areas with India.
“We should take safeguarding the reunification of the motherland and strengthening national unity as the focus of Tibet’s work, do a solid job in ethnic and religious work, and strengthen ethnic exchanges,” Wang added.
Wang also underscored four issues most relevant to China, including “stabilisation, development, ecology, and strengthening of the borders”.
Border defence is now an ideological feature under the Xi establishment, and Wang is the ideal inspiration for the new emphasis.
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Additionally, Wang inspected the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet railway. Chinese State media has claimed that construction of the railway project is nearing completion, but according to the 14th Five-Year Plan released by the autonomous region authority, the project is likely to continue till 2025.
Meanwhile, on 28 July, Beijing held the opening ceremony of the 31st World University Games in Chengdu, where world leaders, including Indonesian President Joko Widodo, were present.
India withdrew its entire wushu (martial arts) team from participating in the games as China issued stapled visas to three athletes from Arunachal Pradesh. The team, which was about to board a flight to Chengdu on Thursday, were stopped at the last minute at the Indira Gandhi International Airport by immigration officials and Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) personnel.
While addressing the issue of stapled visas, Pekingnology, an English-language newsletter run by former Xinhua News Agency journalist Zicheng Wang — who is now affiliated with the government think tank Center for China and Globalization — cited foreign minister Wang Yi’s 2014 remarks calling stapled visa a ‘goodwill’ gesture. The newsletter edition alleged India was discriminatory toward business visas for Chinese business people. But Zichen and his co-authors failed even to mention the India-China border dispute.
Beijing is making a new concerted effort to keep emerging economies from uniting against China – a big part of that strategy is to tie down India’s options. During the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in Johannesburg on 25 July 2023, Wang called for “increasing the representation of the global south” in the “new round of reforms of the global governance system”.
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China’s understanding of the so-called “Global South” is probably a Beijing-led regional order in which New Delhi becomes a junior partner. Ignoring the border dispute while calling for resuming business activities is part of Beijing’s strategy to negotiate from a position of strength, as it has already managed to secure areas in eastern Ladakh, which, in the past, had the lackadaisical presence of PLA patrols.
A press statement by the Chinese foreign ministry published after Indian National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval’s meeting with Wang Yi in Johannesburg mentioned that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi had reached “an important consensus on stabilizing China-India relations in Bali” in 2022.
This statement was buried in the Mandarin version of the foreign ministry statement, which was picked up by The Hindu, and left out of most English language articles by Xinhua.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has now acknowledged that Modi and Xi briefly discussed the need to stabilise relations during their Bali meet. But why would Wang mention Modi’s brief exchange with Xi only now?
It’s a classic negotiating tactic that China is known to use — adding new details in the middle of the negotiation keeps the opponent off-balance and turns up their frustration. We can be assured that these back-channel talks will not lead to the dismantling of the permanent structures built in eastern Ladakh, which are regularly broadcast on Chinese State television during military exercises. The PLA isn’t going anywhere.
A new Pew Research Centre survey suggests that only the countries in the “Global South”, such as Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya hold somewhat neutral views about China. India is one of the major hold-outs with record-high negative views of Beijing.
New Delhi must maintain a clear-eyed approach to negotiating with Beijing, or else, it will fall into the trap of the China-led order among the emerging economies. It will be detrimental to India’s long-term interests.
Tying down India’s negotiating options is the next best option for Beijing — to maintain somewhat positive views about Beijing in the region.
China in world news
Washington has announced a $345 million military aid package to Taiwan, which will transfer weapon systems from the US’ stockpile to Taipei.
This initiative is different because the sale draws on the US stockpile, much like how Ukraine has been armed against Russia. The presidential drawdown package for Taiwan means that these weapons will be immediately transferred rather than waiting to produce a new system that has already delayed some weapon transfers.
The package will include defence, education, and training for the Taiwanese – the Joe Biden administration hasn’t officially published details of the package.
But Washington is likely to send “man-portable air defence systems, or MANPADS, intelligence and surveillance capabilities and firearms and missiles”, according to a US official who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
Critics in China have expressed concerns.
“[It is] aimed at planting the seed of secessionism in the minds of the young to turn them into cannon fodder of the secessionists in power,” said China Daily in an op-ed.
A new report by Tom Shugart of the Center for a New American Security suggests that an invasion of Taiwan may not be imminent as China’s air defences are not ready – including the hardened aircraft shelters (HAS).
Must read this week
China’s Weaponization of Gallium and Germanium – John Seaman
Beijing Is Going Places—and Building Naval Bases – Alexander Wooley and Sheng Zhang
The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist. He was previously a China media journalist at the BBC World Service. He is currently a MOFA Taiwan Fellow based in Taipei and tweets @aadilbrar. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)