The Bharatiya Janata Party’s spectacular victory in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh is a clear indicator for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha election. No single party or coalition can now stop the Narendra Modi-led BJP from securing a third consecutive term in 2024.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP’s vote share has increased by about 9 percent, while the Congress’ share has only decreased by 0.5 percent. It seems evident that the BJP has successfully mopped up votes that belonged to the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party. The results from Sunday, including those from Telangana, highlight two important aspects: the BJP’s invincibility in the North and the Congress’ resurgence in the South.
It’s noteworthy that in 2018, the Congress had clinched victories in the three Hindi heartland states, comprising 65 Lok Sabha seats, defeating the BJP. However, in the subsequent 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP secured 61 out of these 65 seats. With the three states now firmly under its control, the BJP looks poised to repeat its 2019 performance in 2024, possibly surpassing it.
In the Madhya Pradesh assembly, which has 230 seats, the Congress had won a slender majority in 2018, only to lose it due to internal party squabbles. The BJP seized the opportunity and formed a government that it has successfully retained this time. What was initially a stroke of luck for the BJP has evolved into a double whammy for the Congress, losing three consecutive attempts at power.
By reclaiming Madhya Pradesh and wresting control from the Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP has not only proved certain exit polls wrong but has also shown that people-centric social schemes and economic empowerment programmes can ensure popularity and yield political dividends.
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Congress’ solace
The BJP-Congress victory throws up a mixed bag of advantages and challenges for the two national parties. For the Congress, winning Telangana is a shot in the arm that should eclipse the disappointment of losing Rajasthan. The results have placed it in direct confrontation with the once-considered invincible BJP. Just a few months ago, during the traditional pre-election ritual of the opposition front under the acronym I.N.D.I.A., the Congress was among the also-ran partners relegated to the background. State parties with a strong political base, albeit in a limited area of influence, dismissed the pan-India Congress with disdain, offering a meager number of seats and a limited role in future elections, particularly the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Not anymore.
With two important southern states in its grasp, the Congress seems to have emerged from oblivion with renewed vigour. The spectacular comeback in Telangana holds particular significance for Congress for two key reasons.
Firstly, this marks the second state it has won in the South after Karnataka. The victory in Telangana reinforces the party’s determination to regain credibility and the political space it had lost to regional identity-based state parties in recent years, providing itself with the power to negotiate with regional parties from a position of strength.
Another important aspect of Congress’ victory, especially in the South, is the regaining of its hold over the electorate, which it had lost decades ago with the culmination of the Indira Gandhi era. In 1980, Medak in undivided Andhra Pradesh catapulted her back to centre stage of politics after the Emergency period that subjected her to humiliating ignominy. But the Congress must remember that national issues differ from state issues, and this is where the BJP holds an edge over it and other regional parties. The Congress also needs to make a serious decision about continuing with the I.N.D.I.A. coalition. While it tried to run a soft pro-Hindutva campaign in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, its partner in Tamil Nadu vowed to destroy Sanatan Dharma, and Congress remained silent about it.
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Grand old party’s problem
In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress heavily relied on its only old warhorse, Kamal Nath, who spearheaded the party’s campaign. Post-Indira Gandhi era, the Congress party never had a strong campaigner at the apex level who simultaneously held a post of political authority. Both Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh were poor campaigners compared to Atal Bihari Vajpayee or the current Narendra Modi, who has surpassed even Vajpayee in the art or science of crowd pulling.
There was a time when the Congress not only had strong leaders at the state level but also boasted a strong cadre. However, since 2014, both these assets have vanished from the party’s arsenal. After 2004, the party’s power centre solely rested on the ‘first family,’ which had all authority and no responsibility. This led to the weakening of the political apparatus in the states and the disintegration of the party cadre. With the migration of state leaders to the centre, the party became top-heavy, resulting in a leadership-followers vacuum in the states. The BJP capitalised on this, swiftly wresting power from the Congress. A more democratic setup at the top, without ‘family’ control, could save the Congress from serial defeats.
Both the BJP and the Congress have strong state leaders who led the party successfully to victory or challenged their immediate political rivals. Adopting a similar approach in other states could provide these two parties with enough political space to outmaneuver regional parties. Such a two-party system might facilitate strong consensus-building on national issues.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)