BJP is going after DMK not for seats. The goal is to capture Tamil mindset for now

BJP has accused DMK of being anti-national and of supporting drug & sand mafias. Such harsh words have not been spoken against Dravidian parties in 70 years of their rule in the state.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds a roadshow with Tamil Nadu BJP Chief K Annamalai (right) and the party's South Chennai candidate Tamilisai Soundararajan (left) ahead of Lok Sabha polls. | ANI

Tamil voters are fatigued and disillusioned with the politics-as-usual ways of the state. The Dravidian parties’ dominance over Tamil Nadu is waning slowly and their ideology is losing resonance and relevance in Modi’s new India. There is a distinct, discernible desire for a new alternate party. It is not known who will fill the vacuum left by the old parties. But the mushrooming growth of small state and district-level parties is one indication that voters are done with the cinema culture’s long shadow on politics.

This is where Modi and Amit Shah’s BJP sees an opportunity. Their goal is to slowly inch their way into vote share, start changing the conversation and capitalise on this voter mood of disenchantment—just the way the BJP has done in West Bengal in the past decade.

It is not a battle for the 39 constituencies just yet. It is now the battle of changing the narrative in Tamil Nadu slowly. With this in mind, BJP is on a carpet bombing spree in the Tamil Nadu campaign trail. Senior leaders from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, defence minister Rajnath Singh, home minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath and BJP President JP Nadda have visited Tamil Nadu in a high visibility campaign. Whereas Congress and DMK are solely dependent on MK Stalin and, for a day, Rahul Gandhi. AIADMK is also keeping local leaders busy touring the state. Edappadi Palaniswami is the star campaigner for a faction of AIADMK.

Dravidian parties are facing a fierce fight from the pro Hindu BJP. It’s the first time in 70 years that there is a threat to the rule of two Kazhagams, DMK and AIADMK, from BJP.

Some sections in Tamil Nadu are also favouring a third term for Modi at the centre. The BJP is using its national popularity to introduce itself into the Tamil Nadu mindscape right now—not necessarily to win seats in this election. Speeches and manifestos by the state’s political parties for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections indicate it is more focussed on 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly polls.

Targetting Dravidian parties

The state and district-level parties in Tamil Nadu are specifically calling for an end to Narendra Modi rule. MK Stalin compares Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a migratory bird who comes to the state only during poll season. Other leaders use derogatory terms for the BJP, calling it a North Indian Brahmin-Baniya party.

Taking them head on, Narendra Modi called the DMK an anti-national party in three public meetings. Modi said that the NDA govt, in the past 10 years, has been striving hard to protect the rights of Tamil Nadu fishermen. “NDA government saved five Tamil Nadu fishermen who were sentenced to death by a Sri Lankan court and brought them back to India,” he said.

“DMK leaders want me to leave India. But, I want corruption, dynastic politics, drug menace and such evils to leave India. And, I will not stop working till that aim is achieved,” Modi said.

Here are my projections based on the analysis of the speeches of leaders.

1. If DMK wins all 39 seats, it will ensure a safe passage for it to claim the state in the 2026 Assembly elections and the alliance will be intact. The will also cause Palaniswami to migrate from AIADMK to MK Stalin.
2. If AIADMK front wins eight to 10 seats and the BJP bloc bags five to eight seats, it shows that anti-incumbency sentiments run high. Certainly this will throw challenges to MK Stalin to keep his flock together. Of course, central agencies will be used to engineer a split in the DMK.
3. If BJP forms the government in the centre for the third time, one can be rest assured that Narendra Modi will not spare DMK. Certainly, BJP will try to weaken DMK the way it did with JMM and AAP.  BJP is already laying the groundwork by linking the DMK with the sand and drug mafia.

Here is how Modi’s plan is likely to unfold.

1. Modi will use the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaigns to lay the groundwork for 2026 assembly polls. He will have an aggressive southern push, particularly in Tamil Nadu, similar to the party’s push in West Bengal and Tripura.
2. Infrastructure and economic growth of Tamil Nadu will be affected by the drug and sand mafia and social unrest issues raised by the BJP against DMK. It isn’t unlike the BJP’s liquorgate campaign in Delhi. In a rally at Vellore on 11 April, Modi took a jibe at DMK and asked which family is behind the drug menace. K Annamalai has also raised the drug issue in public rallies. AIADMK, the principal opposition party, had also used the charge of a drug menace against DMK in Palaniswami’s public rallies.
3. One should not ignore that foreign powers are focussing more on Southern states, especially China. One sign of this is the positioning of Chinese ‘spy’ ships in Colombo. Modi will use this to make way into the state, under the guise of national security. Why were the 22 DMK lawmakers silent about this in parliament debates? Is it not a security threat to Tamil Nadu?

Demise of tall leaders

After Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi’s demise, there has been a vacuum. Despite tensions in the early days after Jayalalithaa’s death, Palaniswami has effectively captured the cadre and retained his authority. MK Stalin has also kept the party cadres intact after his father passed.

DMK and AIADMK were ready to go head to head in this campaign but BJP aggressively made an entry with Modi raising the issues of Katchatheevu, dynasts and corruption charges. The PM’s Chennai road show was a key attraction. He also attacked the DMK in Vellore and Mettupalayam too.

AIADMK which walked out of the NDA, has nothing to gain or lose for 2024 Lok Sabha. It’s not bothered about its wining or losing the Lok Sabha elections, it’s focused on carving out space for itself for 2026 state Assembly elections.  On the other hand, for DMK it is a prestigious battle.

DMK is also aware if BJP pulls off a hat trick, it has no relevance in national politics. To claim its stake in the 2026 Assembly polls, DMK is keen to get a large numbers of MPs.

To put it in perspective three new entrants in Tamil Nadu politics have emerged in 2024. For BJP it is K Annamalai, a fiery orator who is trying help BJP shed its image as a north Indian party. For PMK, it’s Anbumani Ramadoss and for Tamil Maanila Congress, it’s GK Vasan. These leaders have raised the alarm of Tamil Nadu getting relegated nationally due to 70 years of Dravidian rule. Such harsh words against DMK or AIADMK have never been put it on public before.

The author tweets @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Views are personal.

(Edited by Theres Sudeep)