Modi’s projection as the messiah won him 5-7 per cent more votes than Vajpayee’s peak. But the prevailing situation could tip the balance away from him.
Who are the people who vote for Narendra Modi? Or rather, who voted Modi in 2014 and who may vote for him in 2019? Was the 31 per cent vote that he received in 2014 for the BJP (and the RSS), or for the ‘messiah’ who descended on Indian soil?
After the riotous mayhem in Gujarat in 2002, when Muslims were butchered and the state burned for weeks, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee thought that Modi was a “kalank”— a stigma —on “Rajdharma” (the ruler’s duty). Vajpayee wanted Modi to resign, but his deputy Lal Krishna Advani came to Modi’s rescue.
According to then-union minister Arun Shourie, as quoted in the book ‘Untold Vajpayee: Politician and Paradox’, Modi staged a coup in the party convention. First, he announced his resignation. Immediately after, there began an orchestrated chorus from the audience that “Modi must remain”. (The origin of the now familiar ‘Modi, Modi, Modi’ chant was at that Goa convention).
Vajpayee had to relent, felt humiliated, and never really forgot. Ironically, it was at Vajpayee’s behest that Modi had become CM in 2001, replacing Keshubhai Patel.
The divergent views on Modi were interpreted then as a kind of shadow boxing between Vajpayee and Advani. In fact, Advani’s elevation as deputy PM was itself a part of the RSS strategy to flush out the “moderate Vajpayee” at an opportune moment. The Hindutva brigade in the RSS used to call Vajpayee a “Nehruvian Congresswallah in the BJP uniform”.
But after seeing Modi’s “impressive performance” in promoting aggressive Hindutva, the RSS slowly began to see him as the real successor. Even Advani began to appear as a “moderate”, particularly after his praise for Mohammad Ali Jinnah as a liberal and secular leader.
An unwritten ultimatum was served to Advani: “Win the 2009 election or else…” suffer oblivion. That is where Advani is today; many past critics of him and his extremist Rath Yatra days have suddenly started viewing him as a liberal statesman. Modi does not miss any opportunity to humiliate Advani. The images of Advani sidelined by Modi on various occasions routinely go viral. Advani looks pathetic, and Modi an ungrateful protege.
To come back to the question I raised: who votes for Modi? The BJP can claim a dedicated vote share of about 22 to 25 per cent, which came to them only after the Rath Yatra. Till the mid-1970s, BJP’s predecessor Jana Sangh lacked a wide following except among the upper caste urban voters.
In the 1984 election, the BJP could win only two seats; even Vajpayee lost to Madhavrao Scindia.
It was a quantum jump to 182 seats in 1999, the beginning of Vajpayee’s full term as PM, and it was because of three factors: Advani’s Hindutva campaign, his arrest by Lalu Prasad Yadav during the Rath Yatra in Samastipur, and the violent finale of the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992. Without all this, the BJP could not have come to power in 1998 and again in 1999.
And yet, the architect of the reinvigorated party has quietly accepted the compulsory retirement scheme now. Why have all those kar sevaks and Rath Yatra activists surrendered their political identity and existence to Modi now?
Many in the party privately say that there is a kind of “fear psychosis”. Seniors in the RSS say that Modi and Shah have become larger than life; menacing, even. Yet, there is no open revolt, except the sane challenge posed by Yashwant Sinha and Arun Shourie to Modi’s brazen autocratic style. But this simmering discontent is bound to implode soon.
At that point, Modi bhakts will face an existential challenge. Those who voted Modi and BJP in 2014 were fatigued and frustrated with the Congress. They also wanted a “strong” leadership because they felt Manmohan Singh was weak. The massive blitzkreig of the media campaign, mainly through television channels alleging humongous corruption, created an impression that the government had withered away. Modi projected himself as the strong leader who could sell dreams and deliver too.
But instead of “development dreams” coming true, we are passing through the frightening phase of hate-filled communal polarisation, debates on love jihad and triple talaq and polygamy among Muslims, cow slaughter and beef, even rapes getting communal colour.
When the Nirbhaya movement dominated the streets of Delhi, Smriti Irani had sent bangles to Prime Minister Singh. But after the horrific rape of the eight-year old girl in Kathua, not only has Irani has gone into ‘maun vrat’ (vow of silence), the entire RSS and BJP have chosen to keep a strategic silence. It was a poetic justice (if it can be called such) that Nirbhaya’s parents joined the protest candle march led by Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi in Delhi.
Anti-Congressism, anti-Islamism, anti-Nehruvism, anti-secularism and broad anti-Leftism are features that helped Modi go beyond the Vajpayee threshold of 182 seats and 20-25 per cent vote share. But disillusionment has set in now. The additional five to seven per cent vote, added by Modi’s projection as new messiah, may be turning away from him. Anything can happen in the next ten months – some mass mesmerising trick, yet another grandiose promise to people, new jumlas, communal conflagration, some theatre on Dawood Ibrahim, or even a limited war.
Will the disaffection with Modi swing vote against the BJP in the Lok Sabha election? The slow disintegration if the NDA has begun. It can engulf even the BJP. The question will not be who will be PM, but will Modi be voted out?
Wow… lovely imagination of the author. Can be sold to a Bollywood filmmaker as a story for a commercial masala movie. Blockbuster guaranteed :).
The last few sentences in the article shows the author’s fear of BJP again sweeping the 2019 elections. :).
Afterall, did I expect anything else from a Congress MP? Hell, no.
KUMAR KETKAR SO CALLED JOURNO AND NOW CONGRESS RS MP.HE IS BIASED TO AN EXTENT THAT HE PEDDLE ALL LIES.HE OUGHT KNOW THAT INDIA HAS 100 CORE HINDU WHO LOVE MODI BY ALL MEANS.HIS TRICKS TO DIVERT ATTENTION OF MODI BHAKT WILL NOT WORK ALTHOUGH HIS MASTER RAHUL GANDHI SPENDS 1000 CRORES ON ALL SORTS OF DIRTY WORKS FROM CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICS , CHILD RAPE LINGAYAT AND RIOTS.FARMERS DALIT SC ST WONT WORK ANYMORE AS HINDUS KNOW THAT CONGRESS IS ENEMY OF HINDUS AND MUSLIM CHRISTIANS WANT TO ENSLAVE HINDUS BY FORCE. CONGRESS WILL BE EXTINCT AFTER 2019 POLL WHEN IT WILL NOT GET 24 SEATS AS NOW KARNATAKA WILL BE LOST FOR CONGRESS .AFTER THAT PUNJAB CONGRESS WILL MERGE WITH BJP AND CONGRESS MUKT BHARAT WILL BE REALITY.
EVM is the highest percentage adder as a VOTER
Supari Journalism.
No modi will not be voted out.unfortunatly recent events occured how can we blame modi .
The biggest hater of Modi aren’t Muslims or dalits. But the super brahmins of shivaji park, Deccan gymkhana areas
The disclaimer is missing that Kumar Ketkar is a Rajya Sabha member elected on Congress ticket.
There are many types of writers wht a political fiction … Enjoy … Wht did this gentleman write existential crisis 😀 … Wow … Jai MAHAKAAL…
After Vajpyee Chapter Cong lost its leg and UPA 1 became minority. Cong was exposed in scams. In UPA 2 manmohan it’s best pm lost his credibility and Cong lost its hands. Now after Modi Cong will loose it’s head and is already headless. At least modi is wholesome and do is vajpyee
When you read Kumar’s article, you feel pity for him. He does concede that base vote share of BJP is intact though due to so called Modi’s failed promises, about 5 to 7 per cent vote may be lost. If wishes were horses….
People will soon realize as we come close to general election that Modi might have failed to show results on many fronts, but he is sincere, honest and has a vision. His team was weak and the tasks he undertook requires time to show results. Modi needs another term at least for him to deliver. Besides, the opposition to Modi is just opportunistic and divided and lacks singular focus and vision. No one wants failed UPA days or Federal Front experiments again. On this pure logic, I hope fellow Indians will turn to Modi, not because one is a Hindu nationalist but because one is a true patriot and wishes well for his or her country. Ketkar in the meanwhile can keep writing for 2024 which is just another 5 years away from 2019. The future for him is bright and his dream of Modi mukta Bharat …..
Well, this article is full of hatred towards Modi. When your brethren can’t achieve the hieghts Modi has reached then it’s natural to say grapes are sour.
Just before rajya sabha election this man on tv debate used to say he is not voicing congress. Truth is out.
Yes, you are absolutely right! Modi betrayed Advani and his own wife so how can he be faithful to the country?
Modi is capable of nothing but the following:
“Anything can happen in the next ten months – some mass mesmerising trick, yet another grandiose promise to people, new jumlas, communal conflagration, some theatre on Dawood Ibrahim, or even a limited war.”
Child marriage is illegal, unless Modi’s is a victim. Modi must honour childmarriage, so what if he never cohabited with so-called wife who was child-bride too. He is from the OBC Ghanchi (oil-crushers’) community where child marriages were the norm ages ago. You want him to keep that marriage? Are you educated?
Mr writer, you have written when innocent Muslims were butchered? But no word about the whole bogey consisting women & children burnt alive by your so called peace loving brother in 2002. Your bread & butter only runs on 2002. Great mouth piece of Congis & commies.
The nigs of the North and the rats in our slums and the slaves in our factories of sm0ke and dust would do the pilgrimage back to their beauty shacks to cast their pious, rape-driven votes to their pious rapey politicians. Who then rape them, make life hard for the South.. and they then flee here! While we wish they dumped their worthless selves in the vast ocean we’re gifted with!
Ketkar is that mediocre breed of political journalists who survive not on fresh air, but by looking at the number of comments on their article. It does not matter whether the comments are positive or negative, because his ego is bigger than his brain. In other words, he suffers from Mani Iyer syndrome.
Less research & more imagination, just to please some. In addition, Arun Shourie’s reference also makes this article more dilute.
Less research & more imagination just to please some
Flawed political analysis… Ketkar is senile
So true. But he is enjoy the patronage of the bitter opposition that needs bootlickers who can sell the country for his selfish gains.
Ketkar uses and wastes yet another opportunity. Almost the whole article gives his views on BJP prior to 2014 ! He sees nothing good or worthwhile being done by this Govt nor is he able to analyse the works of this Govt in a meaningful way.
There was a lot of hope and positivity in the summer campaign and then the exceptional result. That needed to have been sustained, leading Shri Kumar Ketkar to pen a column, estimating how many of the 69% would be getting added on …
Just the right analysis by the master ketkar?
All the bhakts can take counseling if Modi loses votes from Kumar Ketkar since he and his Congress bhakt brass has been facing an existential crisis themselves for the past 4 years.
Well written
dreams dreams dreams
some authors seem to be living in an delusional world
You disagree with the authors ‘s views ?
So true. This guy has been bikaa hua for ages. RS ticket fokat mean nahin Mila isko. Maharashtra knows him well.