After five weeks of mutual ethnic cleansing – Kukis from the Imphal valley and Meiteis from the hills – Manipur is on knife’s edge. The state government, bureaucracy, police, and all politicians – including those from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party – stand divided on ethnic lines. Home Minister Amit Shah has appealed for a 15-day cessation of violence to negotiate a compromise and restore normality. However, sporadic violence has continued in rural areas. The state government is dysfunctional, but president’s rule has not been imposed. For all practical purposes, security in Manipur is being handled by former Central Reserve Police Force chief Kuldiep Singh, who was appointed security advisor at the behest of the central government.
As per official figures and as of 3 June, 98 people have been killed and 310 injured since violence first broke out last month. There have been 4,014 cases of recorded arson, and 3,734 FIRs have been registered. More than 4,000 weapons and 5 lakh rounds of ammunition have been looted, mostly from the Imphal valley, from the armouries of police stations/armed police battalions, or simply been handed over by the partisan police. Only 790 weapons and 10,648 rounds have been recovered so far. There are 40,000 internally displaced persons in relief camps.
Given the history of ethnic strife in Manipur, rumours of a more violent second round of planned violence are doing the rounds. The volatile situation is also conducive for the resurrection of former insurgent organisations, which have either signed peace agreements with the government or have been simply lying dormant. The only thing that stands between the dysfunctional state’s descent into chaos is the Indian Army.
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Army’s response to insurgency
Given the foresight of the central government and the Armed forces, the counter-insurgency deployment of the Army has continued to be in place in the state since 1980. For 30 years after 1980, the Army battled insurgent groups of the three ethnic communities – Nagas, Meiteis and Kukis – fighting for secession, eventually bringing Manipur under control. Peace agreements were signed with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) in 1997 and the Kukis in 2008, with the insurgents moving into camps kept under the watch of the Army and Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs). Meitei insurgents never signed any agreement but went dormant. Most weapons of the insurgent groups were smuggled from China via Myanmar.
The insurgency grid of the Assam Rifles that operates under the Army’s 3 Corps has largely remained intact. This force also looks after the India – Myanmar border. 57 Mountain Division of 3 Corps is also permanently located in Manipur and Nagaland. The primary role 57 Mountain Division is to serve as a reserve formation for the India-China border. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) invoked in Manipur is still in place, except for 19 police stations located in seven of the state’s 16 districts.
Given its long experience, the Army had kept a watchful eye on the developing situation in Manipur following the 19 April Manipur High Court order on Scheduled Tribes Status for Meiteis, and its response on outbreak of violence on 3 May was immediate. Disregarding the climate of ethnicity-driven disinformation abetted by none other than Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh, the Army is operating in ‘Aid to Civil Authority’ mode under the local government. The Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan, made an unambiguous statement: “The situation in Manipur is nothing to do with counter-insurgency and is primarily a clash between two ethnicities. It’s a law and order kind of situation, and we are helping the state government.” In a detailed interview with Times Now on 1 June, Chief of Army Staff General Manoj Pande gave details of the Army’s role and actions to restore law and order in Manipur.
The COAS said that immediately after the violence broke out on 3 May, 130 Internal Security Columns (8,000-10,000 troops) of the Army and Assam Rifles were deployed to reinstate law and order. Additional troops were flown in with the help of the Air Force. Anarchy was at its peak from 3-5 May, reduced between 6-21 May and suddenly spurted thereafter. The situation, at present, is volatile, with occasional bursts of violence. The Army is planning combing operations to retrieve looted weapons. Moreover, the Armed Forces have provided security to 36,000 internally displaced persons and care for the 21,000 people who took shelter in Army Camps. NH37 and NH2, Manipur’s two key highways that are considered its lifelines, have been kept open.
The current situation is one the most challenging the Army has faced in ‘Aid to Civil Authority’. Fissures between the Meiteis and Kukis run deep. Unlike in communal riots, despite the presence of the Army, minority villages are raided and set on fire. As per the COAS, Army columns heading for trouble spots are blocked by mobs led by women while also being accused of partisan conduct. The Army had to publicly reiterate its neutrality when the names of 21 Meitei officers operating in the area were posted on social media. There have been reports of confrontations (denied by the Army) between the Army and the partisan police.
Read also: Ethnicity was manipulated to control Manipur insurgency–the hate this unleashed set it on fire
Review approach to Northeast
The present situation in Manipur can best be described as the proverbial lull before the storm. The COAS had told Times Now that the ‘Aid to Civil Authority’ mode will be reviewed as the situation develops. I have no doubts that this has been done. Ethnic radicals have seized the political space. There are unlikely to be any takers for a compromise formula short of a Union Territory or a territorial administrative council for Kukis and Nagas, which may be unacceptable to the Meiteis as it would sound the death knell for the historical Meitei nation. Nagas have historically sought Nagalim or the greater Naga nation. The entire leadership of NSCN – IM is from the Tangkhul tribe of Manipur. Recently Naga leaders from Manipur were in Delhi to meet Amit Shah to ensure that the Nagas are not left out of any Manipur agreement.
Unless an acceptable compromise formula is agreed upon, round two of ethnic violence is inevitable. This round will be a virtual ethnic civil war where the Army will not be dealing with mobs but militia groups. There are 4,000 looted weapons, mostly with Meiteis. Dormant Meitei insurgent groups can resurface with hidden weapons. Kuki-Zomi insurgents can withdraw from the 2008 agreement, loot weapons from designated camps and re-emerge as community saviours. Given the traditional Naga-Kuki rivalry and claims on each other’s territory, Nagas, too, can breach the 1998 ceasefire and jump into the fray.
Secessionist insurgencies have run their course in the Northeast and unlikely to resurface. However, if full-fledged internal[10] ethnic insurgency breaks out in Manipur, the Army will have to double its deployment. Such a situation will have a cascading effect on Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Assam, pulling the Northeast back by four decades. This will also seriously affect the Army’s capabilities on the northern front.
It would be prudent for national political parties, particularly BJP, to review their approach to the Northeast. Communal and majoritarian logic cannot be applied in this region. It requires secular and constitutional governance, which safeguards ethnic and tribal interests. Currently, the situation looks eerily similar to the 1960s and 1970s. The only saving grace is that demand for secession is absent. The Army has no choice but to once again pull the politicians’ chestnuts out of the fire!
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)