Both have a common enemy in Nitish Kumar, and then there’s the CBI.
For some time now, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar has been focusing on Nitish Kumar, making him the centrepiece of its attacks. Issues pertaining to the Modi government and fighting communalism find obligatory references, but the RJD has not named Narendra Modi or Amit Shah much.
In a passionate speech at the RJD’s foundation day in Patna last week, Tejashwi Yadav lashed out at Nitish. He said Nitish was trying to spread the idea that the RJD needs him to defeat the BJP. Tejashwi refuted the idea, asserting that the RJD has no need of Nitish. He instead suggested that Nitish should take retirement.
The RJD wants Bihar politics to be a bi-polar contest between itself and the BJP. It wants to make Nitish irrelevant.
Happily for the RJD, the BJP has the same agenda. It has been clear for a while that the BJP is not interested in keeping the JD(U) in good humour. It is not interested in giving the JD(U) any more than nine or 10 seats as part of the NDA alliance in Bihar. The state has 40 seats.
Enemy’s enemy is friend
Since Nitish switched sides and allied with the BJP, Bihar has reportedly seen a rise in incidents of communal tension. Recently, union minister Giriraj Singh went and met families of the Bajrang Dal workers arrested for their alleged role in communal clashes.
A weak Nitish can do nothing about this, except issuing obligatory condemnation. The result is that Bihar’s nearly 17 per cent Muslims can no longer depend on Nitish for their safety from Hindutva aggression.
Between the BJP’s communalism and the RJD’s secularism, who needs Nitish? The more the BJP plays the polarisation number in Bihar, the more Muslims will vote for the RJD. The JD(U) will be neither here nor there.
The impact was clear in the Jokihat assembly bypoll in May. The Muslim-dominated JD(U) stronghold was won by the RJD.
It appears that the BJP would be very happy if Nitish walked out of the NDA and did not find acceptance with the RJD or the Congress. That is the ideal situation for the BJP as it would split the anti-Modi votes, just like 2014. In that Lok Sabha election, the BJP and its allies had together won 31 of the state’s 40 seats.
The RJD would like us to think that Nitish is irrelevant, but that is not the case. “Our worst phase was 2014. Even then, we had secured 17 per cent votes,” Nitish told his party’s national executive in Delhi Sunday.
Is the RJD making an error of judgement in thinking that Bihar politics is becoming a bi-polar contest between itself and the BJP?
Or is there something else going on here?
Lalu Yadav needs Nitish if he wants to do well in the Lok Sabha elections. On his own he might increase his party’s tally from four to eight seats, but if there were to be a mahagatbandhan, the tally could be as high as 15. Moreover, the mahagatbandhan could be critical in stopping the BJP from coming close to the majority mark in the Lok Sabha.
Lalu would be happy with that, but he has a greater need: protecting himself and his family from the relentless harassment of the Central Bureau of Investigation, the Enforcement Directorate and other central agencies.
For the last month or so, the agencies have apparently been going slow on the Lalu family. The last bit of news was on 12 June when the ED attached some property linked to the Lalu family.
The corruption charge against Tejashwi over which Nitish broke the alliance is being investigated by the CBI. The case is not making news these days. Then there’s an alleged IRCTC scam in which Lalu and Rabri Devi’s names have come up. Then there are the raids, notices and interrogations of Misa Bharti and her husband that went on for months. Lalu, Rabri, daughter Misa, son Tejashwi – they all face multiple charges in many different cases.
As these cases slow down, the Lalu family’s noises against Nitish seem to have risen proportionately. A few more Lok Sabha seats don’t do anything for the RJD. Managing the relentless investigations is a greater objective for the family driven party. Fixed as the match may be, it will still be interesting.
Comparison of Modi with Lalu is not correct. One is a fodder eater and the other is a chawala.
The ground reality is that in the last couple of months RJD has gained grouds massively . The political developments created by JD (u) & BJP has once again brought together the MY factor very very strongly .Nitish is soon going to go in the pages of history. .
Poor & irrelevant news, either Mr.Ashok Dutta the reporter is unaware about present scenario or has minimum political knowledge. ???
Rubbish.far fetched.
Only The Print is Fixing in favour of Modi…..Most of its articles are playing for modi.
I think this must be a probable situation. Nitish is now a common enemy of both BJP and RJD. Lalu and co can go down to any level to get power. The people of Bihar should teach RJD a lesson and make that party irrelevant.
Till now, they are making Nitish and Modi irrelevant in Bihar.
This article does not even qualify as a conspiracy theory. It is utter rubbish!
This theory – like the one which says that Arvind Kejriwal has deep links with the RSS – may or may not be true. However, Nitishbabu is slowly walking into the sunset. Not many will miss him. His sadiq and ameen quotient has dipped.
RJD did mistake by alliance with Nitish in 2015. That alliance has given one more opportunity and lifeline to Nitish else his political career as CM leader was over. In 2014, JDU won only two LS seats. In 2015, without RJD, it would have been finished and all future contest would be between RJD & BJP. Or Nitish may have joined Congress and still wouldn’t have much weight.
Now in 2019 and 2020, if it would be tri-polar fight, BJP may get upper hand , RJD may loose little but it will be end of JDU . Tejasavi is too young, can wait for his turn if new BJP govt becomes unpopular, he has chance of CM either in 2025 or 2030. But it will ensure Nitish’s end in 2020
BJP did mistake by giving too many seats to Paswan, Manji & Khushwha in 2015 (almost 80 seats and won only 5 out of it). So in 2019, it will learn from this and not give many seats to its partner. It will love to fight on its symbol than too many alliance.