It will not be a stretch to say that a third term for Narendra Modi will depend on how well his government handles the Jammu and Kashmir issue, tackles internal security threats, keeps fringe elements under check and finds a resolution to the Ayodhya dispute.
And of these, Jammu and Kashmir will be the single biggest challenge for his newly appointed home minister Amit Shah.
The mixed signals on the pending de-limitation of constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir have already stirred the hornet’s nest. Key political players in the state, like Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party and Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, have raised their voice against such a move.
Whatever be the case, given Amit Shah’s thought process, it is only a matter of time before he comes up with some changes in the present representation in J&K. However, there’s little doubt that Jammu and Kashmir will test the grit and determination of the new home minister.
Elections in the state have been postponed and whenever held could throw up a divided mandate and a hung Assembly again.
Also read: What Amit Shah’s ‘plan for delimitation’ means for J&K and why it’s being opposed
Terror organisations operating out of Pakistan, prodded by trigger-happy generals, can renew their misadventures anytime. The MHA has prepared a list of top 10 militants operating in the state. It is anyone’s guess as to what the home minister’s instructions would be regarding the fate of those on the ‘kill list’. (It is widely believed that the CIA routinely provides a ‘kill list’ to the US president, and Osama Bin Laden was on one of them).
Since another cross-border surgical strike or a Balakot-like air strike is not possible now – neither the current situation warrants such a step – home minister Amit Shah’s challenge would be to contain the terrorists within a small local area. After all, Shah as the home minister will now be answerable for any terror attack in the country.
NRC & other challenges
For the BJP, the NRC turned out to be a game-changer. While there were apprehensions of a riot-like situation, the Centre’s deft handling of the issue doused the protests and paved way for peaceful elections in Assam, with the BJP reaping maximum benefits electorally.
In West Bengal, Amit Shah, as the BJP president, raised the issue of illegal immigration in his election speeches. He promised to implement the NRC in the state and “throw out infiltrators”. Raking up NRC in Bengal brought the BJP in direct confrontation with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress.
Also read: Three reasons why Amit Shah as home minister is a big setback for the BJP
But as home minister, Amit Shah will have to work with the state government machinery and the chief minister (Mamata Banerjee) to work out a solution to illegal immigration and implement the NRC.
Another issue that will demand home minister Amit Shah’s immediate attention is Naxal violence. Just last month, a Naxal attack near Gadchiroli killed 15 security personnel. Naxals have consistently launched attacks against security forces despite a crackdown.
Amit Shah’s predecessor Rajnath Singh had said that the Naxal menace will be tackled and uprooted by 2023. Home minister Shah will have to get cracking to achieve the target.
A repeat of Gujarat model
People’s expectations from Modi and Shah are understandably high. Shah was Modi’s home minister in Gujarat too, and the duo popularised the ‘Gujarat model’. The BJP had projected the Gujarat model of development as its main election plank in 2014 and dethroned the Congress from power.
In the new cabinet, Shah is believed to be the de facto deputy PM; he is a member in all the eight cabinet committees and is heading two of them.
With Modi as the pilot and Shah as the co-pilot, the new government will now have to show greater progress in every aspect and set new records in performance.
Also read: Amit Shah to be allotted Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s residence on Krishna Menon Marg
But RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has a word of caution for the new government. “Those getting elected in a democratic set-up have immense power, but this does not mean that it should be misused,” he said while addressing RSS workers in Kanpur.
Does the RSS expect Amit Shah to use restraint? He is not someone who is willing to strike but afraid to hurt. He hits where it hurts.
Modi and, particularly, home minister Amit Shah’s five-year test has just begun.
The author is former editor of ‘Organiser’. Views are personal.