Two interesting predictions can be made vis-à-vis the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha election and South Indian politics. One, the results of the General election in five southern states will not influence the formation of the Union government in any significant way. Two, the verdict in any of these states won’t reflect a clear victory for any party — it will be split.
South Indian politics isn’t confusing. It’s crystal clear: Eight major regional satraps dominate the peninsula, and neither the Congress nor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to mark a clean sweep here. In Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where spirituality and cinema are closely linked to state politics, a few influential figures have grown politically stronger over the past few years — actors Kamal Haasan, Pawan Kalyan, and Joseph Vijay, to name a few.
Another peculiarity of South Indian states is that there is no homogeneity in political sentiment in the region. Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Kerala are extremely detached from each other, even though the first two are Telugu-speaking states.
Considering all these facts, an in-depth state-wise analysis of politics in South India may hold some merit to gauge what can unfold in 2024.
Tamil Nadu
The upcoming Lok Sabha election will spring a major surprise in this state. The Dravidian movement is fast fading away: The conventional binary of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) will break and three new faces will determine Tamil Nadu politics. And who are they? BJP’s K Annamalai, Naam Tamilar Katchi’s Seeman, and Tamil cinema darling Joseph Vijay.
These new faces are set to woo first and second-time voters, which is bound to snatch away at least 25 to 30 per cent of vote share from the Dravidian parties. If not in the General election next year, then certainly in the 2026 assembly polls.
The power vacuum left by yesteryear bigwigs K Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa hasn’t been filled yet. Who will fill this slot now? Will it be Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Mallikarjun Kharge backed by Rahul Gandhi?
Even if we consider the olive branch extended by the AIADMK to the Congress—after the former walked out of its alliance with the BJP—nothing is likely to materialise. A crucial change such as switching alliances cannot happen over a few weeks. Can the results of five assembly polls in December first week precipitate such a move? Unlikely again — manipulating coalitions is risky just three months before the General election.
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Andhra Pradesh & Telangana
Andhra Pradesh politics is interesting too: While its future is likely to be a tussle between PM Modi and Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) N Chandrababu Naidu, current CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy still holds the key. Reddy emerged powerful after he recently got Naidu, his arch-rival, arrested on alleged charges of corruption — a move that was perfectly timed. The ex-CM almost came close to surrendering to the BJP and PM Modi. Congress is not a force at all in Andhra Pradesh, though it bifurcated the state a decade ago.
The Congress has a hold in Telangana, which the BJP is keen on redeeming by sending top party leaders to shatter the strong man image of current CM K Chandrasekhar Rao of Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS).
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Kerala & Karnataka
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) is a dominant force that is most likely to beat its arch-rival, the Congress. In 2011, CPI(M) stalwart VS Achuthanandan called Wayanad MP Rahul Gandhi an “Amul baby”, and today, the rivalry seems unchanged — the party and the Left Front want to decimate the Congress in Kerala. Sources say that staunch Congress leaders are defecting toward CPI(M).
On another note, will there be a space for the BJP in Kerala in 2024? The answer is doubtful.
Finally, we come to Karnataka, a crucial state for the Congress. Does CM Siddaramaiah hold the key to the 2024 Lok Sabha results from Karnataka? The answer is an emphatic no. Siddaramaiah has bitter enemies in Karnataka and the authority of Kharge and the three Gandhis is under test. The Janata Dal (Secular) is trying to gain an upper hand over the Congress, having tactfully aligned with the BJP for 2024. Whichever way you look at it, winning in Karnataka would be no cakewalk — the BJP is bound to gain more in Lok Sabha due to voters’ discontent with the Congress.
It is safe to say that over the next decade, the only national party that can expand its hold in the South is the BJP. First-time voters, who were born in the Narendra Modi era and have seen the digital revolution, are likely to set the wheels in motion.
The author tweets @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)