We know that in politics there are no permanent enemies or friends, only shifting vested interests. Yet, all political alliances and break-ups, or what the heartland would call “jod-tod ki rajniti” takes place within some broad parameters. These are being redrawn now.
I have had the privilege of learning from three great teachers of Indian politics: Pranab Mukherjee, L.K. Advani and the late Sitaram Kesri. I am sure Pranabda wouldn’t mind my saying that there isn’t a better teacher when it comes to the big picture than L.K. Advani. Or, to use a description that will be more apt here even if considered cheeky, India’s entire political science.
From the late eighties on, when Advani began the resurrection of his party, he would state his simple principle of coalition-building. “There are five parties that think we are anti-national. Besides these, we are open to aligning with anybody,” he would say. The five “untouchables” being Congress, the Left, Mulayam’s Samajwadi Party (SP), Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Muslim League (including its likes today, Owaisi’s AIMIM and Ajmal’s AIUDF).
It followed that there were parties that had no choice but to align with the BJP: Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, and at that point, Telugu Desam Party. The first two, because religion was essential to their politics and power, and the third, because it had no choice, given that the Congress was its only adversary.
He practised what he preached. The coalition government he confected under Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the first to complete its full term. It took away India’s phobia of coalitions and weakened the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor. Until then, you’d smirk or shrink in fright each time George Fernandes would say why can’t coalitions work in India if they can flourish in the “mother-in-law’s country” (Italy). Subsequently, even that “daughter of Italy” built a coalition that lasted full terms.
The essential parameters, however, did not change: There were parties you would never go with, there were others who had no choice but to be with you. Further, in any election, between 75 to 150 seats were bound to go to parties with ideologies fungible with power. This is what made about 160 the new 272. This is now changing but not in a manner you might have expected after Narendra Modi’s BJP won a majority in 2014.
Pointers today indicate a return to the pre-2014 situation, but with a twist. It is most unlikely, on what economists would call ceteris paribus (all other things being equal) basis, that any party would get a majority now. Not even the most committed BJP loyalists boast of a likely majority. Their best argument is, definitely 230-plus, and even if a few less, aur kaun hai (who else is there)? This, is back to the post-1989 normal, but not quite the same way.
Why does Rahul Gandhi send out a “Best wishes to Shri Uddhav Thackeray ji, on his birthday. I wish him good health and happiness always”, tweet? Hypocrisy is the least likely to bother politicians and there is no story in wishing your adversary on a birthday. Or, when you are even happy to go down and surprise your biggest adversary with a hug. But this is different.
Never has a Congress chief sent out greetings, and that too in public, to the supremo of the party that represents values ideologically most abhorrent to it. Shiv Sena is even more untouchable for the Congress than the BJP, the reason it’s been the most essential ally in the NDA.
If Rahul Gandhi now reaches out to its chief, makes his “love-note” public, it means three things. One, that he sees a crack in the BJP-Sena ties and is jubilantly feeling it with a dagger. Two, that he is clearer on his 2019 strategy: Anybody but Modi, even if it isn’t me. And three, that even if India returns to coalitions in 2019, its politics is breaking out of the old parameters of alliance-making drawn by Advani.
That the enemy’s enemy is your friend is the oldest truism in love, war and politics. If you are now willing to reach out to your enemy’s best friend, it shows that to defeat one you dislike more, you can hug the other. You are facing an existentialist challenge to your party, family and, to what you think should be protected as the idea of India. So new rules can be written. Ideological niceties can wait.
Also Read: You can take Rahul out of Pappu but not the Pappu out of Rahul
The diminished prospect of a repeat Modi majority has also restored our earlier, best-of-nine-sets-tennis-match theory of who would rule India. Any side that wins five of these will rule India. The nine “sets” here have been Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra (including Telangana), Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka and Kerala. We chose these nine not only as being among the biggest but also because in these states radical change is possible. That is why we left out Odisha, West Bengal and Gujarat. The nine states between them hold 351 Parliament seats. The coalition winning five is most likely to be close to 200, and definitely upwards of 160. That, as we said earlier, was the 272, until 2014. We could be getting back to that.
See it from the point of view of someone (Rahul Gandhi) whose foremost objective is to deny the Modi-Shah BJP another term. If SP and BSP stay together, BJP is definitely not sweeping Uttar Pradesh. It will struggle to reach half of its 2014 tally of 73. It is bound to suffer attrition in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana where it maxed out in 2014. It hopes to make up in the east and northeast. Its top priority, therefore, is to keep its hold on Maharashtra, the state with the second largest contribution to the Lok Sabha (48) after Uttar Pradesh. Amit Shah has lately made brave calls, rallying his troops to fight Maharashtra alone, without the Sena. But he knows he cannot sweep it without the Shiv Sena.
Rahul Gandhi knows this too. If 2019 is back to being a best of nine sets again, then he must deny Maharashtra to BJP/NDA. No one is so naive to suggest that the Shiv Sena will join an alliance with Congress/UPA. But Rahul doesn’t even need that. If Shiv Sena only stays out of the NDA, his objective is mostly achieved. As for unstated electoral adjustments, Congress and Sharad Pawar are masters at that.
That is the political translation of that “Happy Birthday Uddhav ji” message. Play the prime minister’s reply to the no-confidence motion again and you might spot a most important takeaway: His flattering compliments to K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) as Telangana’s “Vikas Purush” unlike sulking Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra. KCR, you’d remember, has been trying to build an anti-BJP federal front with other regional leaders. If Modi can reach out to him, to breach Andhra-Telangana, and Rahul to Uddhav Thackeray, you can safely infer that this is now an open election.
Also Read: Rahul Gandhi’s pitch that Modi is the worst doesn’t mean Congress is the best
Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist, Barnala(Punjab)
The National Interest is very well poised to experience and scatter variety of colours and lights on the Indian Scene !
It will be quite interesting, amusing and amazing to find ” pleasant” but “unexpected ” developments taking place
during this spring season of elections !
The Indians to my mind should be mentally and physically prepared to view a political spectrum decorated every now
and then with different hues and odours !
The show of politics has started picking up now ! It will display variety of theatrics, rhetorics, dramas, melodramas and
never viewed tales earlier on !
In the entire show, truth will allude remaining a suspense but ultimately triumphing !
Many startling innovations are in the offing on the political map of India !
Prof PK Sharma, Freelance Journalist
Pom Anm Nest,Barnala(Punjab)
I remember a story by Munshi Prem Chand in today’s circumstances. It is ” Namak ka Daroga” where the writer says that an honest man can not have friends but enemies.But people have realised and whatever all of the disgruntled dishonest people may say he will be the choice of the people
The author seems very cynical may be due to his own situations.id anyone reaches out to opponents in a civil manner why cast aspersions? This bias comes from one’s own thinking,in older days there were politicians who.were butter opponents but friends as their differences we’re ideological and not personal, have seen ideological apart politicians as friends vajpayee and bahuguna, vajpayee and surjeet, et Al comes to mind immediately.also.this bunkum of one family rule is stretching an argument too far we forget that they were dull elected by people of India as others were and casting doubt is belittling people of india.so my request to journalists be true to your location and not your greed
Rajiv allowed kar seva at Ayodhya which led to the destruction of Babr Masjid and paved the way for BJP to capture power. Rajiv’s plan was to get Hindu votes by allowing Kar seva. But it backfired. Rahul should not encourage the militant and fanatical regional Shiv Sena which will undermine Congress chances in Maharashtra and other parts of India.
Mr Sekhar Gupta ,you have taken names of Sri Pranab , LK Advani and Sitaram Kesari.. for learning , may be you mean political philosophy coupled with social dignity and decency. I exempt you because you belong to younger generation comparitavely. For political knowledge ,maintaining personal equations , the number 1 person whom we can quote is late Sri Chandrasekhar about whom you have written an article recently. The people who gave some sort of neo modern midway political philosophy coupled with human decency and dignity were Acharya Narendra Dev , minoo Madani , Ashok Mehta , Chandrasekhar ,Jaya Prakash Narayan .to some extent Lohia likes like Vajpayee ,LK, madhok, Malhotra are prisoners of opiates philosophy. Coming to extremists when many people prefer to say charumujamdar , satyamurthy. Of of all the legendary was MNRoy.
Drivel…without an iota of sound, materialist analysis. As usual!
The BJP has long dreamed of shat pratishat Maharashtra. It came tantalisingly close in October 2014, with about 123 assembly seats, out of 288. It fought separately from the Shiv Sena but managed to detach the NCP from the Congress, making it a four way fight. There was a mountain of anti incumbency, after fifteen years. Also the warm afterglow of the May 2014 general election. Today, all the parameters have changed. The NCP is back with the Congress. There is double incumbency building up after four years of pedestrian rule. From inside the tent, the SS continues to rain invective on an almost daily basis. There is zero prospect of winning Maharashtra – the largest of the state ATMs – single handedly. Hence the continuing outreach to an estranged ally. 2. The Congress and the Shiv Sena go back a long way. CM V P Naik used it to break the stranglehold of the unions, especially over the textile industry. Amitabh Bachchan saved Bal Thackeray from going to jail during the emergency. Successive Congress – later in alliance with the NCP – governments in Mantralaya have allowed it to milk the BMC in peace. So the tweet is more in the nature of a coming out moment. Even Mamata Banerjee, with 30% Muslim populism in Bengal, drops in to discuss the weather with Uddhav Thackeray in Bombay. No more deeply pragmatic formation in Indian politics than the SS.
As a Hindutwavadi party SS has no future because the BJP is better equipped with Sangh Parivar on it’s side. So SS must give up Hindutwa and join hands with anti BJP forces. They can take up issues like unemployment and hardships of office goers to keep the organisation alive. With BJP they are sure to face a natural death sooner than later.
1. This anybody but Modi is actually a trap by Congress so that it van reach to 150 (best case scenario). If so, there will be repeat of 2004 and if not Rahul, Meera Kumar or any puppet will be PM.
2. Modi around 230 is an ideal scenario some in Lutyin circuit console themselves with. In reality, Modi -Shah is in for some bigger things.
3. Uddhav is what Uday Chopra in films now. 1st half of 2019 will be his last relevance period in politics -anywhichway. Thereafter he will be just Ajit Sing of Maharashtra
Fair game! If Modi can show his inclination towards KSR, who hopes to spearhead a third front, so it’s what is wrong in RaGa sending birthday wishes to UT. Smart move, I would say.
A paid presentation by antiforces journalist calling BJP a religious party….