Has the farmers’ blockade of Delhi brought Narendra Modi to his Thatcher moment or Anna moment? It is up to Modi to answer that question as India waits. It will write the course of India’s political economy, even electoral politics, in years to come.
For clarity, a Thatcher moment would mean when a big, audacious and risky push for reform, that threatens established structures and entrenched vested interests, brings an avalanche of opposition. That is what Margaret Thatcher faced with her radical shift to the economic Right. She locked horns with it, won, and became the Iron Lady. If she had given in under pressure, she’d just be a forgettable footnote in world history.
Anna moment is easier to understand. It is more recent. It was also located in Delhi. Unlike Thatcher who fought and crushed the unions and the British Left, Manmohan Singh and his UPA gave in to Anna Hazare, holding a special Parliament session, going down to him on their knees, implicitly owning up to all big corruption charges. Singh ceded all moral authority and political capital.
By the time Anna returned victorious for the usual rest & recreation at the Jindal fat farm in Bangalore, the Manmohan Singh government’s goose had been cooked. Anna was victorious not because he got the Lokpal Bill. Because that isn’t what he and his ‘managers’ were after. Their mission was to destroy UPA-2. They succeeded. Of course, helped along by the spinelessness as well as guilelessness of the UPA.
Modi and his counsels would do well to look at both instances with contrasting outcomes as they confront the biggest challenge in their six-and-a-half years. Don’t compare it with the anti-CAA movement. That suited the BJP politically by deepening polarisation; this one does the opposite. It’s a cruel thing to say, but you can’t politically make “Muslims” out of the Sikhs.
That “Khalistani hand” nonsense was tried, and it bombed. It was as much of a misstep as leaders of the Congress calling Anna Hazare “steeped in corruption, head to toe”. Remember that principle in marketing — nothing fails more spectacularly than an obvious lie. As this Khalistan slur was.
The anti-CAA movement involved Muslims and some Leftist intellectual groups. You could easily isolate and even physically crush them. We are merely stating a political reality. The Modi government did not even see the need to invite them for talks. With the farmers, the response has been different.
Besides, this crisis has come on top of multiple others that are defying resolution. The Chinese are not about to end their dharna in Ladakh, the virus is raging and the economy, downhill for six quarters, has been in a free fall lately. Because politically, economically, strategically and morally the space is now so limited, this becomes the Modi government’s biggest challenge.
Also read: Shambles over farmers’ protest shows Modi-Shah BJP needs a Punjab tutorial
Modi has a complaint that he is given too little credit as an economic reformer. That he has brought in the bankruptcy law, GST, PSU bank consolidation, FDI relaxations and so on, but still too many people, especially the most respected economists, do not see him as a reformer.
There is no denying that he has done some political heavy lifting with these reformist steps. But some, especially GST, have lost their way because of poor groundwork and execution. And certainly, all that the sudden demonetisation did was to break the economy’s momentum. His legacy, so far, is of slowing down and then reversing India’s growth.
Having inherited an economy where 8 per cent growth was the new normal, now RBI says it will be 8 per cent, but in the negative. It isn’t the record anybody wanted in his seventh year, with India’s per capita GDP set to fall below Bangladesh’s, according to an October IMF estimate.
The pandemic brought Modi the “don’t waste a crisis” opportunity. If Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh with a minority government could use the economic crisis of 1991 to carve out a good place for themselves in India’s economic history, why couldn’t he now? That is how a bunch of audacious moves were announced in a kind of pandemic package. The farm reform laws are among the most spectacular of these. Followed by labour laws.
This is comparable now to the change Margaret Thatcher had dared to bring. She wasn’t dealing with multiple other crises like Modi now, but then she also did not have the kind of almost total sway that Modi has over national politics. Any big change causes fear and protests. But this is at a scale that concerns 60 per cent of our population, connected with farming in different ways. That he and his government could have done a better job of selling it to the farmers is a fact, but that is in the past.
The Anna movement has greater parallels, physically and visually, with the current situation. Like India Against Corruption, the farmers’ protest also positions itself in the non-political space, denying its platform to any politician. Leading lights of popular culture are speaking and singing for it. Again, there is widespread popular sympathy as farmers are seen as virtuous, and victims. Just like the activists. Its supporters are using social media just as brilliantly as Anna’s.
Also read: How protesting farmers have kept politicians out of their agitation for over 2 months
There are some differences too. Unlike UPA-2, this prime minister is his own master. He doesn’t need to defer to someone in another Lutyens’ bungalow. He has personal popularity enormously higher than Manmohan Singh’s, great facility with words and a record of consistently winning elections for his party.
But this farmers’ stir looks ugly for him. His politics is built so centrally on the pillar of “messaging” that pictures of salt-of-the-earth farmers with weather-beaten faces, cooking and sharing ‘langars’, offering these to all comers, then refusing government hospitality at the talks and eating their own food brought from the gurdwara while sitting on the floor, and the widespread derision of the “Khalistani” charge is just the kind of messaging he doesn’t want. In his and his party’s scheme of things, the message is the politics.
Thatcher had no such issues, and Manmohan Singh had no chips to play with. How does Modi deal with this now? The temptation to retreat will be great. You can defer, withdraw the bills, send them to the select committee, embrace the farmers and buy time. It isn’t as if the Modi-Shah BJP doesn’t know how to retreat. It did so on the equally bold land acquisition bill, reeling under the ‘suit-boot ki sarkar’ punch. So, what about another ‘tactical retreat’?
It will be a disaster, and worse than Manmohan Singh’s to the Anna movement. At the heart of Modi’s political brand proposition is a ‘strong’ government. It was early days when he retreated on the land acquisition bill. The lack of a Rajya Sabha majority was an alibi. Another retreat now will shatter that ‘strongman’ image. The opposition will finally see him as fallible.
At the same time, farmers blockading the capital makes for really bad pictures. These aren’t nutcases of ‘Occupy Wall Street’. Farmers are at the heart of India. Plus, they have the time. Anybody with elementary familiarity with farming knows that once wheat and mustard, which is most of the rabi crop in the north, is planted, there isn’t that much to do until early April.
You can’t evict them as in the many Shaheen Baghs, and you can’t let them hang on. Even a part surrender will finish your authority. Because then protesters against labour reform will block the capital. That’s why how Modi answers this Thatcher or Anna moment question will determine national politics going ahead. Our wish, of course, is that he will choose Thatcher over Anna. It will be a tragedy if even Modi were to lose his nerve over his boldest reforms.
Also read: Punjab’s frustration & anger is rooted in its steep decline, now visible in farmers’ protests
Dear All,
This comparison is very irrelevant.
On top of that it is concluded in the end. Conclusion left reader with no room to think.
How today can be compared with past,
How circumstances of England can be compared with India.
How this situation can be compared solely on basis of What Modi will do.
How about listening to people of India,
How about having discussion and checking facts before making bills.
I do not expect much from Modi, he is basically illiterate and worst thing happened to India along with Shah but as a writer you have social responsibility and moral duty to educate people.
Instead of checking the relevance of this bill you are making it a Modi is going to give up in front of people of India or not.
Shame on you as a writer.
Well, its a fashion to berate and call Dr Manmohan Singh names. Everyone knows that he is not going to come and defend himself or he doesn’t have friends/henchmen to defend him. Here was a decent human being, extremely intelligent, highly educated economist and honest man. But it helps everyone to project him as a weak man and fire from his shoulders.
Be that as it may, looking at the merits of the farm law, there is one glaring point on contract farming that scares the hell out of me as a common citizen. Constitution provides every one a right to legal recourse. But imagine the farmers have to come to street even to get this basic right. So in the scenario this law goes through as mr gupta hopes, farmers will not have right for legal recourse. Irrespective of the efficacy of the courts as a citizen everyone should have that right. Can we identify any law in the corporate world where there is no right for legal recourse. Would the telecom industry be happy with TRAI arbitrating on all their disputes?
Apart from this, i haven’t seen or heard or read any economist worth his salt suggesting innovative out of the box solutions to provide farmers his dues, One of the biggest concerns of contract farming is the profit the corporates makes while the producer who is the first in the value chain makes pittance. Why not look at revenue/profit sharing model in such Contract farming so that everyone in the value chain gets a proper pie of the profit? This model exist in many other sectors across the world to create a level playing field. Similar out of the box solutions will have to be thought through
In an economy where there are employment and under employment issues, what will you do with the farmers who are being moved out of farming economy? What alternatives for them are being thought off?
I think, Mr Gupta and most of the pro-liberalisation opinion makers are missing the larger point in the scheme of things. While it is good to have market forces determine the prices, it is not always true that it is good for economy or country. Please recollect that many of these experts supported the move by this very same government to fix MRP for medical equipment and implants when they noticed that corporate hospitals/agencies are fleecing the patients by charging abnormal rates. If one is to accept that government support is needed for patients in corporate hospitals to get justice, think of the poor and helpless marginal farmers status vis a vis a large corporate in agri market. Idealism is always advisable, but may not work in majority of cases. Need of the hour for agriculture revival is mechanism to assure farmers of fair prices for their produce and help in the form of controlled prices for inputs for products which cannot face the competition of international trade. Let us not be blind to the fact that leaving farmers and agri economy to fend itself in the market of big corporates and international players is a sure way for destroying our large agri dependent rural India.
All this is going to end in a Sikh-Hindu communal battle – something SG sort of hinted in his first article. Now, that the battle lines are cast, SG decided to throw in his lot with Modi and be on the Hindu side.
It is silly to fantasize that Modi is going to be a transformer of the Indian economy and he can catapult India into the First World. Modi is very much the corrupt Third World autocrat, and in the last 7 years there is no evidence of ‘minimum government, maximum governance’ that he advertised. Those were slogans taught to him by American Hindus managing his election campaign. Organisation of demonetisation, CAA-NRC, repealing Article 370, farm laws, and Delhi pogrom, does not suggest minimum government, maximum governance, they indicate maximum government, and maximum punishment and impoverishment if we protest. One has to go by the evidence, and not wishful thinking. SG knows the farm laws will also be a mess, he knows Modi will fail, so he wants to say ‘if only he had done such and such, it would have been successful’. It is like those who say demonetisation was clever, but the execution was poor. Modi’s bhakts always have an alibi.
After all, the BJP and RSS are Hindu fascists who admired Hitler.
Leftist cry baby spotted.
Shekhar you rock the cradle as well as beat the child. You have lost your credibility. 2020s are not 1980s.
looks auth left to me.
Sir, a top journalist like you is not able to make understand your best friend Punjab CM and person like Yogendra Yadav, a much learned persons the benefits of farm law and expects from PM to make farmers understands the benefit of farm laws. No question a tough task.
What is the need for a Tahtcher moment ? We had a Modi moment – beating up Muslims in 2002. That made Modi a hero for the Hindus. That is greater than the Thatcher moment.
SG is a Vajpayee type – one foot in the liberal camp and the other in the Hindutva fascist camp. One side of him Modi is a failure, but still Modi’s Hindu lure cannot be shaken off. It is just like devoteees of Assaram and Ram Rahim. If Modi stays the course and hands over farming to Adani, India will become a rich nation.
India is a country with woeful industrial capability. Now even its agriculture will be gone.
Many countries reach a plateau in development. India reached its plateau in the first MMS term. The Modi era has seen a disastrous decline. India’s per capita income will become lower than Bangladesh. But still Hindus keep hoping they will somehow outplay China, America will be on their side etc. And if those do not materialise, beat up the minorities.
Hindu incompetence has sunk India. There is no other way to say it. Manusmriti and Vedic primitiveness are the target of Hindus. Progress through retrogression.
How are the Dalit Sikhs doing? Is chamar pop doing wonders? Next time stay focused on the topic. Wheat MSP costs 76000 crores to India. Punjabis enjoyed great living standards when poor in other states toiled in their industries and factories. They do not owe anything to Punjabis, they have a right to a good standard of living. Farm income is not taxed and Punjab has to industry to contribute to center’s kitty. Do other states people not deserve to build on their decades of toil? Do they just need to continue to give to center to just prop up Punjab and sustain your lavish lifestyles. All states are overproducing grain, and India can’t buy all. Setting up MSP is not a magic bullet. No private player is going to buy just because MSP is set. Today MSP is sustained only because govt buys the crop whether it passes quality or not. This is done by diverting money that should go to industrialized states who have worked so hard for decades. MSP should go away in 15 years max. Sikhs are highly respected in India, but it is wrong to starve others so they enjoy their lifestyles.
Why are we not seeing “intellectuals” and economists who agree that the farm laws are in general in the right direction coming out in full force and speak in support of the laws and suggest compromise that the govt and farmers can adopt and accept? It is not healthy that we only hear “award returns” and opposition always heard, even if they have a genuine grievance with the law. We cannot progress as a country otherwise.
Intellectuals and economists cannot agree to you just to show fairness to fascists.
The intellectuals and economists said that demonetisation was a swindle, dressed up as corruption ending tool.
They can see the farming laws have an ulterior purpose.
Like the CAA is dressed up as innocent and humanitarian, but which when coupled with NRC is a tool to send Muslims selectively to concentration camps.
Intellectuals can see it, they will not agree. You are dealing with fascist who hate intellectuals. They have their jahil strongmen – Modi, Shah, Yogi….
Playing Devil’s advocate with the article, are we? Farmers have a right to be heard. They know their trade in and out. Bihar had the model implementing the current proposed reform only to lead to an exodus of Bihar farmers to Punjab. Protesting TN farmers btw have been locked up forcibly and no one is reporting this…farmers are going to bring a change. Modi is not at a battle with them to “retreat” or “push forth”. He knows ppl well enough to lead as their representative. This could be a chance to win over an entire state
Modi has won Bihar. Modi has made a spectacular show in Hyderabad. Don’t you see this writing on the Wall? Whether Farm Laws are good or bad is not a matter now. What matters is Modi’s popularity which is intact Having said that, I must confess that I am disappointed his economic initiatives. They are counter productive.
Modi is popular because Hindu communalism is popular.
There is nothing to be disappointed with his economic initiatives, the Hindu communalism is what matter to you.
Seems like the writer(s) has been watching “The Crown” tv show.
It is not surprising that journalistic wheeler dealers are sympathetic with agri business wheeler dealers. It is obvious that the “protest” is something manufactured by rich and powerful farmers and commission agents. More than 95% of the agitators are from Punjab a congress ruled state. Congress is more interested in muddying the waters than to promote farmers interest. It is then days now and it is a pity that farmers only from Punjab have grievances over agri laws- no one from southern states are bothered about the “protesters”.
Post-1991 reforms of Indian economy were opposed by even top industrialists under the banner of Bombay -Club. Some thing similarity is happening today. . The arguments of Bombay club led by top industrialist mr. Bajaj seemed good at that time , but post -reform growth of Indian industry proved Bombay club big talk was wrong and was for private benefit of a small minority of the inefficient industrial tycoons. But the government of the day did not buckled under their pressures. the story of Indian growth had its own way for next two decades.In similar fashion Modi government should remain firm. Every right thinking Indian should support him. what modi government proposed in 2020 , are the Reforms that should have been done in 1990 s.
As for as political strentgh of Modi is concerned , He is modi –under attack since 2002 , but still winning. Definitively he will win in 2020-30 s also.
Indeed. Modi is the Great Hindu Hope. The economy is in free fall, GDP per capita is below Bangladesh. Covid handling was inept, and so was handling of China. Definitively Modi will win in 2020-30 s also – but India will not win.
Shekhar mentioned Anna and Thatcher but forgot to mention how Indira dealt with Sharad Joshi’s Chakka Jaam agitation in Maharashtra in the early 1980s! Modi is more likely to remember that episode!!
From Satyagrah to Fast until death to Anna movement to anti CAA stir to Farmer gathering now, we have seen it all. As of now, Modi seem to be on right course with offers of suitable amendments to the law. Of course, peaceful agitation can continue ( with full support from Canada, UK, USA and UN) !. Let us see how it goes after 2 weeks- whether it turns violent, some disruptive acts take place, it thins out or corona hits them or these rich farmers go back to supervise their poor, hard working labor from Bihar working round the clock on the farms.
Indian agriculture (not only Punjab) needs massive structural reforms and these three recently passed laws are a step in the right direction for the country. Legacy of Modi will be his economic reforms and not achieving political agenda of BJP. Full Stop.!!
Legacy of Modi is economy in free fall. SG himself says it. When he could not deliver in the last 7 years, what is the probability he will now ? Whatever the intention (if you pretend it is not malafide but bonafide), we know the execution is poor – like demonetisation and GST.
I understand Modi is your Great Hindu Hope, but you need to be objective and not be a fantasist.
You yourselves have a communal mind. All your comments are taunts on Hindus. The biggest achievement of Modi will be less corruption and smooth work in bureaucracy, 370 removal and if the economic reforms succeed. He’s not Indira or Atal bihari, he has to face the global leftist ecosystem in any bold step he takes.
Shekhar, you have always been on the capitalists side. No wonder you want corporates to take over the farming sector, making the real farmers contract lab our instead of proud land owners. You and your ilk have brought Modi and his agenda upon us. Now please stop peddling lies for your benifit.
Are u serious? Shekhar gupta is long time Indian express, ndtv veteran. He has built his career on bjp, rss bashing. Cmon man have some basic level of intelligence and information before posting weird comments. It was shekhar only who broke the ‘story’ that gen vk singh was marching to delhi to dethrone Maunmohan govt. Cmon, wake up!
Because capitalism works. Get off ur hypocrite high horse. The phn/electronic device u r using, the internet u r using, everything is made by corporates. The chips you eat, the cool drinks u drink everything. And no one is alienating farmers from their own lands. Either you are extremely ill informed of how economies work (from your apparent disdain for free markets) or you didn’t even read the laws properly or you just chose to lie. So dont accuse SG of lying.
is it ,,,, but Mao killed millions in the famine by making agriculture a public enterprise…. For a typical communist, ideology is more important than improving livelihoods.
There is no future in agriculture. If you want them to be landowners, then let them lease the land and earn rent from corporates. Productivity of agriculture has to improve, and effective use of land is needed.
Farmers are not good at making decisions. They grow the wrong crops in excess, and expects govt to buy that for MSP, from middle class tax money. And then the excess grains rot in godowns. Are we paying MSP for the wastage? And then the taxpayer has to pay MSP again while buying in the market. Stop encouraging this wastage, and evolve.
We need less farmers and these must move to manufacturing. Learn from landowners of Bangalore. They leased out their land to builders, to develop real estate and industry.
Landowners of Bangalore got opportunity to sell or lease their land because software corporations came to Bangalore.
This cannot be replicated all over India as there is just one Bangalore or Hyderabad or Gurgaon in India.
Moreover farmers of Punjab feed the entire nation. Do land owning farmers of Bangalore have that kind of reputation.
SG is at his worst in this article. SG hopes Modi, the Hindu godman, will do a miracle for the Hindus. Farm reform is the miracle that SG thinks will save the Indian economy which he himself says is in free fall.
‘Our wish, of course, is thathe will choose Thatcher over Anna. It will be a tragedy if even Modi were to lose his nerve over his boldest reforms.’
Yes, Thatcher broke the unions and miners in the UK. Along with, it disappeared the UK manufacturing industry. It was replaced by services. It looked like a not bad thing. Except when Covid and Brexit struck, Britain finds itself in limbo. Medical equipment and PPE had to be imported. Germany which maintained manufacturing made all the PPE and diagnostic kits. Now with Brexit, even London’s position as the premier financial centre is likely to go.
Thatcher destroying unions and industry with it was not a clever move. It is like a general who says defend a city at all costs, to the last man. In the first phase of the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, Stalin issued orders not to withdraw. The result was the German blitz krieg caught the Red Army and they had many battalions captured. Later on, the Soviets realised, it is best to do a tactical retreat and save the army, because then you can strike back. When they did that, the Red Army drove out the Germans. If you sacrifice the workers and the industry or agriculture, then you are doomed.
As for hoping Modi will be firm and will not back down on the farm laws, what does that indicate ? Does SG want to hand over all the farms to Adani ? Will that work in a poor country ? What happens if Adani decides he can get better profits by exporting the wheat abroad ? Who will ensure the Indian gets enough food ?
As for Modi’s execution, SG knows it is poor. He knows how the execution of demonetisation and GST was done. SG himself writes Modi’s management of the economy, Covid and China have put India in dire straits. There is nothing Modi has done that suggests competence in governance. SG cannot cite any examples. The only thing Modi has shown is he can murder minorities to win elections.
When SG hinself knows Modi is a non-performer, what is the point of putting out an article with a prayer that Modi will not fail both in execution and content of the farm reform ? This is the extraordinary weak mentality of Hindus. They cling to false babas and sadhus, and indulge in wishful thinking, even though they know nothing is going to come out of them. SG shows the same trait. He knows Modi has had failure after failure, he himself cites them, but still he hopes the Hindu godman will do a miracle for the Hindus.
SG is offensive when he says CAA was a success for Modi, because Muslims can be ignored. The CAA-NRC was heading for civil war, the Indian govt. was saved by Covid. Shaheen Baghee dispersed only because of that. There are many internal fights on the horizon that Modi has created : Hindu-Muslim, Hindu-Sikh and confilcts wtih all neighbours. Hindu-Hindu fight will come at some stage.
but why did great famine occur in China in 1959- 1961 ? what did Mao do in the “the great leap” that led to famine ?????
Where is China today and where is India today ? Mao got rid of all the reactionaries. China is forward looking. India is saddled with Brahmanism and casteism. India is looking to return to Vedic times.
Fraud channel. You are
If its a fraud channel Why Are you Commenting . Go Visit actual fake news social media like fakebook @ twitter And Last Not Least you tube where every uneducated /Illiterate Wannabe/ Keyboard Warrior Gypo From The Third World Gets There Education .
Go watch Ndtv
Shekhar Gupta your views are an affront. Just tell how do you justify and support rise of Adani and Ambani. And it is shameful to know that you did your elementary education from same town as Balwant Gargi. Just tell us that how come their is no industrialist inIndia in poulation touching 140 crores now not near to 130 crores as u still claim somce 2014 dont revise that basic fact of poplulation you and Modi. Just tell no industrialist in India apart from Adani and Ambani? The old Punjabi groups like Thapars were good for nothing. Plus please justify largest financial frauds in India done by Gujratis but highest noble prize winners in India were Bengalis next Punjabis, Tamils. Hiw many Gujratis won Noble prize, how many freesom fighters were martyred from Gujarat, how many regiments in army are from Gujarat. Just answer Shekhar Gupta
Hmmm at least gujaratis did not pick up guns, kill innocent people by taking them out of buses along with children. Gujaratis also dont set up shop outside india in countries like canada and provide terror funding to khalistani crazy illeterate dudes. Gujaratis are the single biggest contributors to economy & entrepreneurial spirit. Whereever they go, they represent india their motherland. In fact the powerful india that we see today is also because of a gujarati sardar patel. By the way, i am not a gujarati.
Well posed questions.
SG himself says the economy is in free fall, yet Modi is the Great Hindu Hope. Out of 130 crore, only Adani and Ambani are big businessmen. Out of 130 crore, they could only find a jahil chai wallah and they prefer him to an educated Sikh economist.
The bottom line is SG knows what is wrong, but he would still prefer to go with the wrong – because it is Hindu. Most Hindus are like that.
This article fails to recognize that Thatcher was heading a country that had a highly developed economy with a lot of other avenues of employment. Where are the jobs in India? Even so called first world countries subsidize their farmers. You dont want to make a profession so unattractive for people that they leave it in droves. Once that happens you can say goodbye to your “self sufficient” grain stocks. The manufacturing economy exists only in your dreams. If there is a viable alternative for farmers except for selling pakoras please do share.
SG says the economy is in free fall, he knows it is due to Modi’s incompetence, yet he prays for Modi’s success with the farm reforms which is handing farms to the Adanis !