Atal Modi vs Rajiv Rahul

Only two leaders have the strength, appeal & political wherewithal to break the two-decade stalemate in Indian politics with a big new idea: Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.

Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi | Illustration by ThePrint

The conclusion in last Saturday’s National Interest that India now waits for somebody to pull his forces out of the trenches and break the two-decade stalemate in politics with a big new idea, has brought forth some obvious questions: Who is that likely to be? What can be some such ideas? And what if the same stalemate continues? The first and the third are easier to answer. Only two leaders have the strength, appeal and political wherewithal to break this stalemate: Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. And of course, it will be a most fun election if they decided to do so and locked horns in a big ideas campaign.

The third question, well, you ask any Congress leader and he will answer it with a smugness that comes from two terms in power and the old TINA (There Is No Alternative) arrogance. If the stalemate continues, the election will surely be fought on old issues, or mainly identity, which suits the Congress. It is a truism confirmed by the general pattern of our state and national elections since 1989, and was even reaffirmed in Obama’s re-election last year, that in a diverse society, in an election defined by identity, the sum of all insecure and united minorities is often greater than the power of a usually divided majority. But while such a stale campaign may again bring some kind of a UPA to power, it is more likely to resemble 2004.

The Congress has been in power politics much longer than any of its rivals. So it is more inclined to be satisfied with minimalistic possibilities as long as it stays in power. That is what you would often hear from the busybody apparatchiks and mandarins who dominate its top echelons (only four of the current 19-member CWC are Lok Sabha members, including Sonia and Rahul; of the rest, 9 are Rajya Sabha members, 5 former MPs, one ex-MLA): We can afford to lose 50, 60, or even 70 seats from 2009 and still retain power. There is merit in their cynical arithmetic. What is 200 for the BJP is 140 for them, because they are likely to be acceptable to many more allies. But there is one pre-requisite here: the election must be trapped in tired old issues, identity and social justice. New ideas must be kept out. Retaining power, howsoever diminished, is better than risking losing it. It also follows that such a weak coalition will totally preclude a Rahul Gandhi prime ministership in 2014. But the Congressmen do not care. They would prefer minimalistic realism to anything adventurous, risky, go-for-broke. But will Rahul Gandhi set the bar that low?

There is also a lesson here for those in the BJP, particularly the semi-intellectual types who work its fringes. They have already declared a Modi victory. Just let Modi be our prime ministerial candidate, they say, it will polarise the electorate and we will win. There may be some merit in that, given that a Hindu upsurge post-1992 had given the party Uttar Pradesh and finally power in Delhi. But 2014 is different. In any case, building a temple can never have the same oomph as breaking a mosque. So this will be a risky strategy. It will, most likely, vindicate the Congress party’s minimalists. Further, the rhetoric needed to fuel such polarisation will make it impossible to build a ruling coalition, post-elections. That became possible in the nineties because Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s inclusive and non-threatening leadership won over, at least in crucial electoral regions, allies that would have normally stayed away from a leadership of the Hindu right. L.K. Advani and Vajpayee then complemented each other: one divided to win, the other subsequently charmed to unite. The party no longer has such talent.

The onus, therefore, is on Modi to do something creative to break the stalemate or status quo that suits the Congress. His aggressive style, lampooning of rivals, choice of words, inflexion, delivery and sense of timing make him one of our most impressive orators in Hindi. But his message, so far, has only enthused the faithful. The BJP voters love him. But he knows that won’t be enough. Elections are also not fought on the internet and Twitter. He will have to widen his message, consign dated grievances like appeasement of Muslims, fear of Pakistan, Christian conversions, mandir, even terrorism, to cold storage.

Does he, then, have the intellectual depth and political sagacity to drop everything about him that his fans love but the more numerous others fear? Can he build a fresh new agenda around growth, development, entrepreneurship, good governance, equal opportunity and wealth creation? Some of his recent public speeches have suggested that, usual Congress-bashing apart, he is trying to smoothen his ruder edges. To put it simply, to win, he has to change the game, and for that, he needs an entirely new approach from the one that made him the unchallenged leader of Gujarat. I have often said that in 2004, aam aadmi of the Congress did not defeat the NDA’s India Shining. It was a case of Modi defeating Vajpayee. Now, to get even with the Congress, his challenge is to become the new Vajpayee. It may sound unrealistic, but it seems now that he will give this a shot.

Similar choices confront Rahul Gandhi. He can let things drift. He can presume he has time, and settle for a de-risked, re-elect a truncated UPA approach. He knows now that his original idea of rediscovering voters where Indira Gandhi found them has not worked: those voters have either moved on, or discovered their own leaders. He has the gift of youth and modernity and a party more faithful to the leader than any in the world, and that includes the Chinese communists. So he, too, can build a new agenda around reformist economics. There aren’t many other issues left in the run-up to 2014. Both sides have the same view on terror, national security and foreign policy. A secular versus communal approach takes him back to the doldrums of 2004. But it may be different if he talks modern economics and invokes the globalised confidence of Rajiv Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, rather than the great but now outdated ideas of Indira and Nehru.

A stirring new election will then have a Modi reinventing himself as Vajpayee, a Rahul relaunching himself in the image of Rajiv and Manmohan Singh, both talking economic reform, growth, governance, equality and aspiration. Leave it, then, to the voter to decide who she finds more convincing.