Monsoon to be normal this year, says IMD, but warns of less rains & higher temperatures in June

An El Nino is likely to set in during monsoon. But IMD’s forecast says that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may simultaneously develop that could counteract the effects of El Nino.

Representational photo of the monsoon in India | ANI

New Delhi: India is likely to receive normal monsoon rainfall this year, even though June will witness deficient rains, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said Friday.

According to the forecast, rainfall in June will be 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) and most parts of the country are likely to experience higher than normal temperatures.

In Kerala, the monsoon season will set in on 4 June – four days later than normal. According to the IMD forecast, rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the LPA over the country as a whole, where the normal range is considered between 96-106 of the LPA, calculated at 87cm.

“Region wise, north west India is likely to see below normal rainfall, but all other regions, like central, northeast, and the southern peninsular region of India, will see normal rainfall,” said D.S. Pai of the IMD.

This includes the “core monsoon” region, comprising states that depend most heavily on the rains for agricultural purposes, he added.

The IMD’s forecast comes amid predictions by private forecasters that this monsoon will be worse than expected. On 26 May, The Weather Channel predicted monsoon to be 90 per cent of the LPA. In April, Skymet Weather, too, had predicted a lower than normal monsoon season.

An El Nino, typically known to cause drier, drought prone weather, is likely to set in during the monsoon season. However, according to the IMD’s forecast, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole – another climate phenomenon – may simultaneously develop, which could counteract the effects of the El Nino.

Minimum temperatures will also be higher

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal in most parts of the country in June, barring the extreme north and some parts in the southern peninsular region, the IMD forecast said. Minimum temperatures, too, will be higher than normal in several swathes of India in the month.

The pre-monsoon season saw an excess of 12 per cent rainfall over the country as a whole, the IMD’s forecast says. The summer season saw 11 heatwave days in March, 40 in April, and 26 in May so far, which is much below the average of 21.57 (March), 68.7 (April) and 86.8 (May).