New Delhi: From Prashant Kishor’s fledgling Jan Suraaj Party to the Gowda clan in Karnataka, several political players outside the Congress and BJP fold have their fate in the balance as 46 assembly constituencies spread across the country head for by-elections.
The Maharashtra and Jharkhand verdicts will dominate headlines on the 23 November counting day. However, the outcomes of the other bypolls, which will set the path for the cast of characters involved, will also have a bearing on national politics.
The summer of 2024 saw a reset in the country’s political mood, with the Bharatiya Janata Party finding itself far below the halfway mark in the Lok Sabha while the Congress saw a reversal in its unchecked decline over the past decade. The BJP then formed the government with the help of its allies, the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United), for a third straight term.
The Opposition had an advantage in the first round of bypolls in July on the heels of the Lok Sabha polls. INDIA bloc won 10 of 13 seats where the polls happened. The BJP bagged only two. However, Haryana’s verdict in the assembly polls last month served as a sobering reminder to the Congress that its Lok Sabha showing could have been a flash in the pan.
After the Election Commission announced by-elections to 48 constituencies, the ruling Sikkim Krantikari Morcha in Sikkim won two seats unopposed. Currently, Congress holds 14 of the 46 seats going to the polls and the BJP 11.
A favourable outcome in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, coupled with an edge in the bypoll numbers, will help restore confidence in the Opposition camp, particularly in the Congress. For the BJP, the bypolls bring an opportunity, after Haryana, to reaffirm its pre-eminence as the central pole of Indian politics.
Yet, it’s not just about the BJP and the Congress. It’s a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP in only 16 seats, concentrated primarily in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Karnataka.
Take Bihar, for instance, where bypolls are happening in four constituencies. More than the ruling JD(U) and the primary opposition party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, eyes will be on the performance of Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, making its maiden electoral foray following a padyatra that saw him crisscrossing the state over the last two years.
As the entry of Kishor’s party makes the bypolls multipolar, a tough contest is on the cards for the RJD, which previously won two of the four seats. The RJD, which relies on the Muslim-Yadav vote bank, has to stave off the challenge of not only the JDU this time but also the JSP, with the latter fielding a prominent Muslim face in the Belaganj constituency.
In Karnataka, bypolls are due in three assembly constituencies. The results of Channapatna will be keenly tracked as JDS president H.D. Kumaraswamy, by fielding his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy from the seat, has made it a prestige battle for the Gowda clan. A win for Nikhil, who has lost a Lok Sabha poll and an assembly election before, will bolster his standing as the party’s future amid criminal charges pending against his cousins, Prajwal Revanna and Suraj Revanna.
In Meghalaya, where the rise of the nativist Voice of the People Party (VPP) is eroding the base of the ruling National People’s Party, Chief Minister Conrad Sangma has fielded his wife, Mehtab Chandee Sangma, in the Gambegre seat. The bypolls became necessary with the resignation of Congress’s Saleng Sangma after his election to the Lok Sabha from Tura.
In West Bengal, bypolls will happen in six seats. The ruling TMC is pulling out all stops to counter the Opposition’s mobilisation riding on the back of the protests that erupted across the state after the rape and murder of a trainee doctor at the RG Kar Medical College and Hospital in Kolkata. Apart from the BJP, candidates from Congress and the Left—not contesting together this time—are in the fray.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party and BJP will fight again. The Congress has pulled out from the race, describing it as a large-hearted move to strengthen the fight against the BJP.
In the 2022 assembly polls, the BJP won two of nine seats—Khair and Phulpur— while the Rashtriya Lok Dal, then an ally of the SP, and the NISHAD party won Meerapur and Majhawan, respectively. The SP won the remaining four seats—Kundarki, Karhal, Sishamau and Katehari. The party stunned observers by winning 37 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections, seven more than the BJP.
More than the BJP, however, a lot is riding on the bypoll results for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, whose leadership has come under intense questioning after the party’s dismal performance in the state in the Lok Sabha polls.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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