As many as 300 foreigners from 16 countries had attended the Tablighi Jamaat event in Delhi in March (representational image) | Photo : Suraj Singh Bisht | ThePrint
Nearly 4,000, including foreigners, had attended the Tablighi Jamaat event in Delhi (representational image) | Photo : Suraj Singh Bisht | ThePrint
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New Delhi: The Indian Institute of Management (IIM) in Rohtak has predicted, using mathematical models, that the Tablighi Jamaat congregation held at its headquarters in Delhi from 13-15 March will increase coronavirus cases “exponentially” — with Delhi and Mumbai to emerge as the most vulnerable locations.

“We predict… that the number of Covid-19 cases will increase exponentially in India to approximately 13,000 cases by 15 April 2020 and to more than 1,50,000 cases by the first week of May 2020,” said a report prepared by a research team at IIM-Rohtak.

“This rapid increase in cases is a result of the Tablighi Jamaat event and we propose that any such event in the future will be severely detrimental for the health of the people and may pose a serious threat to the growth and well-being of the nation,” the report stated.

The research team, led by IIM Director Dheeraj Sharma, had professors Dr Amol Singh and Dr Abhay Pant and a research scholar as members.

“This study takes into account the fact that the lockdown would be removed on April 14 2020,” Sharma told ThePrint.

“The government should play a proactive role to condemn any such congregation and should mandatorily lock down such places to avoid proliferation of Covid-19 cases,” the report said.

The team analysed data using a mathematical forecasting model involving two exponential functions. Such models have been used recently to predict disease spread in a given region.

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“Using the data from covid19india.org website and employing a regression model, it was proffered that the coronavirus cases have multiplied approximately three times post the Tablighi Jamaat event,” said the report, which was accessed by this author. 

“The detailed forecast post the Tablighi Jamaat event of Covid-19 cases across India are presented in Table 1 below… The predicted cases have been compared with the actual cases and the analysis showed approx. 93% accuracy on an average for all the data.”

The report added, “Following a model of coronavirus case estimation…, some empirical analysis was done to forecast coronavirus cases for India considering the rapid growth of cases pan India.” 

It said, “The estimation of predicted coronavirus cases in the future was done taking into consideration reproduction number and serial interval in our model. This model is estimated in the scenario of uncontrolled spread without the effectiveness of any control measures.” 


Also read: Call it a mistake, not conspiracy against India, say Muslim scholars on Tablighi Jamaat event


State-wise comparison

The report has also done a state-wise comparison of coronavirus cases. 

“… a hotspot state-wise comparison of Covid-19 cases has also been done and presented from Table 3 to Table 8… The analysis indicates that there is a multiplier effect of Tablighi Jamaat event on number of cases for the hotspot states and the multiplier range is between 2 and 4 times that of pre-Tablighi Jamaat event. It can be clearly seen from the data in hotspot states that the Tablighi Jamaat event has increased the number of cases drastically,” said the report.

The “significance” of the event can be seen from Table 3 below that the cases have increased nearly four times in Delhi since the event. It is expected that the cases will increase further, said the report. 

In the remaining states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan, cases have increased nearly two to three times after the Tablighi Jamaat event.

It is evident from the analysis that Delhi and Mumbai are the most vulnerable locations out of all the hotspot locations. The probability of being affected through Covid-19 viral infection is highest in these locations.

The report further stated: “The prediction accuracy is nearly 93% when we compared actual cases with the predicted cases on an average.”

An analysis (Table 8) has also been done for Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra, which is the worst-affected state at present.

Data source for all eight tables: IIM report

(This report has been updated to include IIM Rohtak Director Dheeraj Sharma’s comment.) 

The writer is CEO of Indraprastha Vishwa Samvad Kendra, an RSS affiliate, and author of two books on the RSS.


Also read: Tamil Nadu is worst-hit by Tablighi Jamaat event, but also seeing men admit participation


 

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80 Comments Share Your Views

80 COMMENTS

  1. There seems to be hardly any significance of this research in the Indian context. Even after putting all restrictions under lockdown, we had extra ordinary relaxations like migrant trains, students returning from Kota and buses coming from Nanded. The research had a very narrow approach in computing the data that was available to. Them. There were no relative factors considered, no variable components included in the study. Prof Amol and Prof Abhay being from the similar domain have done quiet elementary research on the topic. I hope more researchers will be working on more advanced analysis that will help us analyse and understand the future prospects post covid 19 world.

  2. There have been hundreds and thousands of theories coming from all corners of the world, big universities and researchers. Every one is using various models based on factors that are relevant and irrelevant at different regions. But there is no asurity which theory will apply in the given scenario. We have already pass the time frame as mentioned in the study and no. of cases as per the time frame mentioned are still increasing though the exponential factor is low. Does this mean that lockdown is the only option available for implementation and execution or are there any other measures like followed by China to bring back the cycle of economy and livelyhood. There are lots of if s and buts. It would be great if we get to see more research coming from researchers of IIM Rohtak based on the factors and statistics changing with time, based on the situation being getting worse in some parts of the country and finding improvements in others. I would be more interested to see such research work with more suggestions and otpions available for government to implement and help all sections of society and sectors of industry benefit from this

  3. What kind of research is this. Dr. Abhay Pant is believed to be from the area of economatrics and there is hardly any variable factor analysis done in the entire research. It’s just another random mathematical model done and results published which have no standing from the critical research prespective. Being an Institute of national importance, we expect more vital research coming that will help government and local administration take cognigence and take suitable actions that will restrain spread of virus and get the economy back on its actual track. We just can’t be sitting idle with the hope that everything will be alright one fine day when the virus will disappear and economy will flourish. Economic reforms, suitable and right decisions and containing the spread of virus is the key for which all researchers must help establishements function.

  4. We are already in Lockdown 3.0 and this research still not find any understanding of factors apart from just the mathematical calculations. India and for that matter the community being talked about has controlled the community spread of the virus even today. Infact, the number of cases increased in India have been due to local negligence, we have incidents like one from Nanded that became a spreader in Punjab, migrants coming from various parts of the country, vegetable vendors, delivery ones, and what not. Still I would say we have very responsible citizens of India that have maintained awareness and understanding of the situation really well. Even media has been left with no mudda of communal, social or political eruptions during this entire period of lockdown. and then we find a research like this where the inputs puts entire blame on one community. Indian Population had emerged more responsible and concerned than never before. We must keep this going with the same spirit and shall find results unbelievable for the world to see.

  5. Every so called “expert” is trying to come up with a model predicting numbers and end an trajectory just to make a point (and obviously a publication). But the need of the hour is NOT those meaningless statements (when you obviously do not know the correct input/initial conditions to which these results are invariably sensitive to), but given limited resources we have at hand, the risk involved in relaxing the restrictions in the GREEN zones, by consolidating actual test results performed on a representative random sample (irrespective of the original testing criteria). I also seriously doubt even if it comes from a (credible?) statistician, that one can link the current course to just one event (when there is a greater chance of sampling bias, and unaccounted infections are involved).

  6. The Print & its Journalists seems to be working on fees to create Public Scare . Other social Medias too busy in similar Game. Sad of Social Media Journalism.

  7. 1.5 lakhs? We are nearing may 1st week
    Where are the numbers. Some high fi University in US was saying india will reach 1 lakh cases in April first week. These people are doing just mathamatical calcultion without considering factors. These people mind are set to western template.

  8. Surprisingly, there have been so many comments criticizing this article. I don’t find any communal, unethical or non credible piece of information here. Infact, had there been lockdown pull off by 14th April, our situation had been no good than US or Italy. I wonder lockdown has made people so job less and desperate. that they are questioning professors of prestigious institutes on their credentials, and credibility of the study. Get a life guys. You guys need to focus on your act of following rules, lockdown and social distancing rather than venting out your frustration like this on a piece of article based on research work of some senior faculty, and learned professionals.

  9. Much needed authentic and eye opener survey done by IIM R. There are many take aways for Government as well as Indian society to be cautious for deadly disease spread through Tabligis who have proved themselves as irresponsible in the toughest time for India when India was doing excellent fight against COVID19

  10. I am no judge to a mathematical research but I believe in context to the diversity of India, variations, and large size of population, can not give the correct predictions that will match across all models, variants, or situations. This is one aspect of the study that is giving an alarming figure. I am sure government has considered such calculations in mind while taking call of complete lockdown, or giving relaxation to some special areas/ industries, or going on to testing in an aggressive way. Such type of studies help us a common people also understand the graveness of the situation. At last I believe, it is only us if we can become responsible citizens to the society. Or we are considered as those typical EDUCATED ILLITERATES like Mohd Saad, or Wadhwans Nihangs of Khichdi Saheb gurdwara, or others who are attacking healthcare workers, and policemen. These kind of incidents are surely going to pay us huge and will put entire nation and its economy will go for a toss. Guys, please be more responsible, be more aware and behave educated. If we educated ones are going to behave this way to govt rules and regulations, and make fun of it, how do expect maturity, understanding and cooperation from people like daily wagers, migrants, and people below poverty line. those are the uneducated ones, who need support and cooperation from us.

  11. Contribution of Prof, Sharma in research and training area over last decade has been highly commendable. He has contributed exceptionally to the best management institute in the country IIM A and current he is leading another premier institute with so many feathers already in the cap of IIM R. Rather than appreciating his contribution to the social, public and private sector in consulting, advising, and training, I can see comments bashing him for this article, There seems to be nothing wrong, rather an eye opener for authorities, thought for suitable action plan for concerned officials, and here we are bashing them on the name of communism, questioning his credentials, doubting the work done by faculty members of IIM. This gives so much disappointment and disturbs the spirit of knowledge sharing, cumulative contribution to the collective development growth of the nation. Thank you Professors for contributing and working on the spirit of bring solutions on the table, creating awareness, and helping in nation building.

    • The LYING PROFESSOR SHARMA is now exposed. Predicted 1.5 lakh cases by 2nd may. Well it us 2nd may and the no of cases are 35500. This filthy professor should be ashamed of himself for communalising a pandemic. This jahil professor should resign as he is not fit for the job.

  12. It is highly surprising to see so much of bashing and criticism on the article. I am sure this would be one of the many studies done by faculty of premier management institutes. Seeing to the global scenario, we all should collectively appreciate the amount of awareness and maturity shown by all sections of Indian community including scholars, government officials, and also local bodies. However, such anti elements will be there in all walks of life, who will create challenges for the entire community. there have been similar cases in countries like Italy and US, where corona infectents ran from quarantine centres, attended religious gatherings in church, kept using subways for days after finding continuous increase in no. of cases. There have been numerous cases where people have done blunders and put the entire community to the danger of their life. These countries are currently the most affected ones.If we can debate on the mistakes of Italy, US and Spain, why the discussion on blunder happened at the heart of the country is considered blaming, communal angle, shaming, etc.etc. Why are we so bothered when one calls spade a spade. So that is hypocrisy right!! I am sure faculty of such a premier institute is well aware of thier responsibilities. They know they are looked upon with trust and responsibility and it is exactly what they have done. Cheers to the spirit of India who have with a collective effort till now have handled the entire situation as the best among all other countries.

  13. The study by IIM Rohtak faculty indicates that we are in such a big worry. I am glad that the suggestions by faculty have been well considered by the govt, and lockdown 2.0 is in place. I am sure govt, will consider all the suggestions given by the study of IIM Faculty. However, incidents like these of Tablighi can come up any time in future as well. Local administration has a huge responsibility to ensure complete lockdown which is the only option that will lead to flattening of the curve

  14. This was done intentionally by Jamat, working against country has been their approach since begning. They receive funds via hawala and all anti pree hings done by them. Right time to control them else they pose a big threat to India.

  15. After reading this article, I really wonder, are we keeping the right check on mechanism in place by the government. It the responsibility of the citizens to find such loop holes and report. We just can’t blame the government/ police to have done the check of the event of tabligi jamat. What are people doing about it ? I am sure all 2300 people who were in Markaz would have been planning to create a mess of the entire operation of social distancing but that would be only few. At the same time non of the 2300 people took it as a moral repsonsibility to report in time. All those who travelled to almost all the states in India before lockdown, none of them found it their moral responsibility to control the spread and become conscious of their actions. I really wonder, what is the role of eduction, if incidents like one happened in Patiala yesterday will keep immerging. Are we engulfed with so much of self arrogance and self greatness, that we forget the role of MANKIND. I am also surprised to see the mentality of people her who have been writing such derogatory remarks on the article. Personally targeting professors of an IIM, do we have so much time to discuss their crendtials. Guys, then you are the ones who badly need employment. Why can’t we just appreciate the fact that at this time of lockdown, there are people who are working on finding solutions, eventually doing their job. I also wonder, what have been the response of the audience had this report been published by any foreign University. Had a foreign professor name. It would have got all it’s dues and credibility. Guys, just get a life and get on doing some work.

  16. I dont wish to read article that has been written by RSS supporter on Tabligi Jamat. Though the article would have surely got my praise had it been entirely the representation of one of the premier management institutions of the country. Guys, you need to just focus on your research and support in nation building. Connecting with RSS is just not right in my opinion.

  17. I have been reading Print for its out of the box journalism, being unbiased and truly honest to its reporting. But alas, I think will have to switch to more reading options of more authentic reporting/ journalism.

  18. Hey, can we get the source of the study to read the entire report and understand the model better. Reproduction number and serial interval in model as said is the probably not relevant in this scenario as the cases are more situation based and hotspots of virus infected are emerging out of nowhere where it is least expected. Tabligi jamat seems to be merely one such example and more such cases/ events can come into light with coming times. Though those events might not get such footage/ visibility as with this case (communal angle as we can see )

  19. Thank you Professor Dheeraj Sharma and your team as this research article is need of the hour….I sincerely thank you that timely u came out with such findings….I appreciate you and your team for making efforts for the sake of the people of the country and not for publishing this article in a reputed journal for your own sake. Well done!!!!! When I read the opinions of other viewers…. I felt so bad that how our own people come forward to demotivate the people who really want to do something good for the society ,for the country. They can’t do anything on their own , they will just sit and start saying all the bullshit about others who are at least giving a try . Majority of the people do the same. Some have anonymously tried their best to damage the reputation of the author. It can be clearly sensed with my experience that due to personal grudges , one is criticising and insulting , cannot see the positive side. Such acts don’t insult that person but depicts the intensity of your polluted mind.

  20. Very well done Sir…..I appreciate you for your work and your concern for the people of this country. Your findings are really helpful and m sure govt will come with suitable action plan to prevent the people of this country,

  21. What are the credentials of Dr. Pant, Dr. Singh and Dr. Sharma, who promote to have done research on such a sensitive topic at this hour where audience wants to read more factual, trust worthy, and credible study. I am sure this research has been done just to please a few people or areas of the society and nothing else. Guys, being an IIM, you need to stop doing the blame game under the cover of critical issues and focus on figuring out reasonable solutions to end this havoc where the economy is going for a toss.

  22. Though the research is being presented by a premier institute, however, looks like they have picked up the team of beginners, who have just submitted a report without doing thorough study on the subject and without understanding the depth of the issue. Several aspects of the study have been neglected and a hush hush results have been presented.

  23. Where is the original study, what is the validation of the facts and data collected. The research is done so poorly and need lot of fact check. what about the amount of testing data, what about information on containment zones and quarantine centers. It looks like an amateur study done by the researchers.

  24. It is a completely biased study focusing on just one community. There shall be similar cases in other areas of the country and globally as well. We cant put the entire blame on one community for the spread of virus, role of government has not been observed by any media house. Such a biased environment all over.

  25. Can you please add a reference to the original paper by Sharma, Singh and Pant? It is not available on any of the public archives (arXiv, bioRxiv and medRxiv) or on Google Scholar.

    • This article might not have been published had The Print conducted a background check on Google about the credentials of the lead researcher. A News Story published by The Print itself about a month back on Dheeraj Sharma’s academic credentials is worth reading.

  26. Did not see a reference to the original paper? Can’t seem to find it on Google Scholar either. It is interesting to scrutinize the model and understand the details that have been used to fit the data. It is not clear how the model accuracy was calculated to be 93%. There seems to be a lot of variability between predicted and actual values across states.

  27. The writers are Bogus and Agenda driven. Tablighi is complicit but choose better contributer for articles.

    Both the contributors do not have credentials to present commentary on such a sensitive issue at such a sensitive time..

  28. I am an avid reader of Print and a fan of Shekhar ji. However, this article lacked all the facts and methods as demonstrated in Cut the Clutter. This feels like a propoganda article, even though the role and follow up behaviour of Tabliqi is without question despicable.

    However, would request to not lower the standard of the media house by publishing ill researched articles by people of questionable agendas (read RSS heads) and soiled reputation (I just read a few comments and curiosily read about Mr. Sharma. Quite a reputation he has. I don’t know if there is a shortage of respectable people in academics)

    Kindly not let the standards stoop Shekhar ji. I have great regard for thePrint.

  29. Has anybody found the original paper and where it was published? It seems the article was prepared to be published to push an agenda and nothing more!

  30. Reading the consequences of calling off lockdown, it becomes even more important for us to stay home and ensure that the lockdown is implemented in the best possible way by all. M sure govt is looking into this and will take more severe actions to control the community spread of virus. We need to become more responsible and support police and local administration in implementing the lockdown more strictly.

  31. Reading the consequences of calling off lockdown, it becomes even more important for us to stay home and ensure that the lockdown is implemented in the best possible way by all. M sure govt is looking into this and will take more severe actions to control the community spread of virus. As citizens, we also have to become more cautious of our actions and support police and administration in implementing lockdown in better way.

  32. Reading the consequences of calling off lockdown, it becomes even more important for us to stay home and ensure that the lockdown is implemented in the best possible way by all. M sure govt is looking into this and will take more severe actions to control the community spread of virus.

  33. Shekhar ji.. why you are giving space to such elements who indulge in fear mongering. How the report was accessed by the author? When was this report released?

  34. IN THIS SCENARIO.INTERNAL EMERGENCY BE PROMULGATED AND ALL STATE GOVTS BE DISMISSED AND ALL POWER VESTED WITH CENTRAL GOVT TO ACT DECISIVELY.ELSE LAKSH WILL DIE IN INDIA BY MAY 15TH

  35. IIM – Rohtak?, oh wait a minute! Where’s that? Oh yeah.
    This kind of research is called “convenience modelling”. And dear Print, don’t print such articles that add to fear mongering.

    • Well said Sasi. These kind of biased reporting without any clear evidence would cause unneccessary fear among citizens and would encourage hatred towards a particular community.

  36. These whole speculation is wrong and bull shit . Actually these has to b happen coz now every state is increasing their testing and they getting the cases b4 event 2.5 lakh tourist hav been issued the visa from January according to data and Govt hav already over looked the seriousness of this virus as health advisory issued the statement on 13march tht the virus is not a scare and no need to panick where this virus was already declared as pandemic by WHO. Only the reason mortality rate for india is 4.1 according to latest infected case Many attendees who were qaurantine already they reported negative.
    Now it was already expected tht death rate will increased bcoz now the state government are slowly increasing their testin
    This report is baised just to blame some group or community this happens only in india. First, a man in delhi who spitted pan in a manipur girl addressing her a corona and now Nizamuddin markaz . Stop this blame game

    • This data is for worse case scenario and some Islamic Idiots are still not realising this fact that this Virus shows exponential growth of cases via medium.The virus has no legs to walk bit the people carrying it provide the mobility to Virus and Tablighi Jamati Idiots have Unfortunately(Intentionally or Mistakenly)gave Life to the Virus and spreaded it and are still spreading it all over the Country.Its simple fact that if we stop moving then the Virus also stops as it cannot fly from Delhi to Kerala to UP to other states and that is the reason behind this.The Tablighi members are even increasing the risk to next level by not cooperating with the Government and are Hiding at places and further giving Legs to legs to the Virus.So basically this Islamic extremists have become Abbajaan of the Virus and you need to dig that above all👍

  37. Can u do same study for 17 Italians who were roaming around in feb and march..

    Do share the link of model detail.. really wants to see it.

  38. Did I hear regression I mean you can use regression to approximate different parameters followed by SIR, SEIR, SIS, etc models to capture the behavior, but regression alone sounds fishy. I was expecting a bit more

  39. जूते पड़ेंगे बाद में इन IIT रोहतक वालों में अगर pridiction गलत रहा तो,

  40. Sekhar sir, don’t surrender your dignity for whatever petty gains you make by publishing such a ridiculous and farce article. The motive of it is evident from the affiliation of the author. Please don’t turn Print as the mouthpiece of such organisations.
    Nobody deny the fact that Tabligh event has contributed to the recent spike in the number of positive corona cases. But exaggerating it as a reason for 150k cases by May is absurd. The major reason for the spike in positive cases is the increase in the number of tests conducted. Once there is further ramp ups in testings, number of positive cases are going to grow exponentially. It does not require an IIM backed mathematical model to understand it. It require only common sense and an eye for detail.
    Please don’t offer The Print as a platform for hatemongers…

  41. No fan Of Tablighis.
    But the way this event was portrayed and a whole community scapegoated is beyond dignity.
    The same could be said about UP CM who inaugurated Ayodhya temple construction ceremony with hundreds of people praying just 1 day before the tablighi event.
    India is fast becoming just like Pakistan and Afghanistan and the other bunch of Oriental minded backward Countries.
    Earlier also India used to persecute communities and kill minorities but it was with much more grace and with panache but now its like orange street mongrels fighting for rotten flesh.
    This way it will soon go the Burma or the Russia way.
    Pseudo Democracy with few people incharge of all the wealth and power.
    Not even Hindus will be safe. Muslims were already dead by 1947.

    • Agree. And congratulations to the Print for joining the already overpopulated group of Godi media. Be happy that your role will be go down in the pages of history when or if it will be written how India changed from a pseudosecular Republic to a Frankenstein monster of pseudonationalist oligarchy.

  42. No fan Of Tablighis.
    But the way this event was portrayed and a whole community scapegoated is beyond dignity.
    The same could be said about UP CM who inaugurated Ayodhya temple construction ceremony with hundreds of people praying just 1 day before the tablighi event.
    India is fast becoming just like Pakistan and Afghanistan and the other bunch of Oriental minded backward Countries.
    Earlier also India used to persecute communities and kill minorities but it was with much more grace and with panache but now its like orange street mongrels fighting for rotten flesh.
    This way it will soon go the Burma or the Russia way.
    Pseudo Democracy with few people incharge of all the wealth and power.
    Not even Hindus will be safe. Muslims were already dead by 1947.

  43. whoever does not cooperate with health care official and attack them should be locked down in a cage for vaccine testing. People have no clue of the criticality of the issue we face and always fight over religious bullshit. Don’t ask the name just punish those who are not following government and healthcare officials guidelines.

  44. I cannot understand why our govt is adopting such soft approach towards these tabligi elements. If Saudi Arsbia can shoot such animals down, we can atleast place them all together, lock them and let them die on their own !! Why waste tax payers’ money on such criminals? One nevver expected Modi govt to be so timid against antinationals.

  45. That is just highly sloppy mathematics. Makes one wonder the callibre of folks at IIM Rohtak.

    I don’t even know where to start with the flaws in this “study”. Laughable!

  46. The mathematical tabulation is more useful management basing five/three years actual performance. There is no such data here. Moreover, some times management presentation would puzzling. If last year if company has sold two items and this year 4, in percentage terms it would be 100% increase as if big achivement has been done. Why IIM Professors are wasting their time and leave it to the doctors. The TJ members meet only their community members and let the authorities trace to take appropriate actions. The law on their part can take whatever steps they must continue.

  47. Dheeraj Sharma. Just Google the name you will find scam after scam.
    The problem with journalism is they have no one to check the authenticity of what they are publicising and they have to publish to make a living.
    Shekhar is losing his ground of neutral journalist

  48. Only when India goes back to the principle of respecting one’s freedom and dignity especially on the basis of our religious attire… Only thereby complete healings will be found…Making fun of one’s ugliness does not matter the nation but disrespecting one’s belief left emotional revolution behind…

    • Love your statement based on truth but how can you change people with filthy mindset full of hatred against other human They are hate mongers specialised liars trying to change history of India and want to rewrite history of Kashmir even want to change demography of Jammu and Kashmir

  49. Dear Shekar, what happened? You are using Print to spread propaganda against Islam. Very unusual. I thought you were our friend.

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