New Delhi: India’s effective reproduction number (R) for Covid — an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading — is at 0.93 this week, marginally higher than last week’s 0.92.
Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, who has been tracking R for India since the beginning of the pandemic told ThePrint that while things look somewhat better in India, the upcoming festive season could change the course of the pandemic since R is still very close to 1.
R indicates the average number of people who can catch the infection from one sick person. R should be below 1 for the pandemic to come to an end.
Most of the states that have a high active caseload have R below 1.
For Kerala, R rose from 0.89 on 21 September to 1.04 around 25 September. Although the data from the state is fluctuating too much to make an accurate estimate, Sinha said that the value has dropped below 1 over the last couple of days.
For Maharashtra, R dropped to 0.95 this week from 0.97 last week.
Tamil Nadu and Mizoram are the only two states where currently R is over 1. Both states have R unchanged since last week — at 1.02 and 1.1, respectively.
In several other states, the R value remains the same as last week. Odisha’s R is at 0.91, while that of Karnataka and West Bengal has remained steady at 0.95 and 0.96, respectively.
For Telangana, there has been a marginal increase to 0.93 this week from 0.92 last week, while for Andhra Pradesh R dropped to 0.92 this week from 0.93 last week.
Major cities
Last week, most metros had R value above 1. This has improved slightly this week.
For Bengaluru, R reduced to 0.99 this week from 1.06 last week. Similarly, for Mumbai, R was at 1.09 last week, which has reduced to 0.95.
Pune’s R declined to 0.82 this week from 1.04 last week.
Chennai still has R over 1, although the value decreased to 1.05 this week from 1.11. For Kolkata, R reduced to 1 this week from 1.04.
Delhi’s R remains the same as last week — at 0.92.
Also read: When should kids wear a mask: On school bus, in classroom, outdoors? Here’s what experts say