New Delhi: India has managed to bring down the growth rate of Covid-19 cases from 24.3 per cent in pre-lockdown period to 3.8 per cent during the current ‘Unlock 1.0’, chief ministers were told during the two-day virtual meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
This came even as the daily rise in cases has remained above 10,000 for several days now and deaths too have remained above 300 per day. On Wednesday, the toll, however, crossed 2,000.
On Thursday, the country’s total Covid tally rose to 3,66,945 and 334 deaths reported in the last 24 hours.
The presentation by the health ministry during the virtual meeting analysed daily growth of cases from 18 March to 15 June to show that at the beginning of the lockdown phase 1, which came into effect on 25 March, the growth rate (five-day moving average) stood at 24.3 per cent.
By the end of the lockdown phase 1 on 14 April, it came down to 13 per cent, which was more than halved to 6.1 per cent by the end of lockdown phase 2 on 3 May.
It further came down to 5.3 per cent at the end of lockdown phase 3 on May 17. At the end of lockdown phase 4 on 31 May, the growth rate stood at 4.7 per cent and dipped further to 3.8 per cent in the next fortnight, even as the unlocking continued.
The estimates were part of the presentation by Rajesh Bhushan, Officer on Special Duty in the health ministry, during PM Modi’s video-conference meeting with chief ministers and administrators of 36 states and union territories Tuesday and Wednesday.
Soon after the presentation, PM Modi asserted that as green shoots appear in the economy, India would continue to unlock even as it ramps up the fight against Covid.
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District-wise Covid testing figures
There are 72 districts, where testing numbers remain low, said the health ministry.
According to a district-wise analysis of tests between 7-13 June (this was not a part of the presentation), the top 8 districts with low tests per 10 lakh population are Nashik (374 tests), Solapur (414), Raigad (622), north-east Delhi (417), Surat (440), Vadodara (528), Ghaziabad (467) and North 24 Parganas (539).
For India, the figure stands at 731. The Covid-positivity rates in these districts range from 7.5 per cent in North 24 Parganas to 57.1 per cent in north-east Delhi.
15 states contributing 94% of total Covid load
The health ministry’s presentation claimed that by clamping an early nationwide lockdown from 25 March, India averted between 14 lakh and 29 lakh Covid cases, and 37,000 to 78,000 deaths, citing estimates by eminent researchers and institutions, including Boston Consulting Group, PHFI, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, and Indian Statistical Institute.
According to the data, as of 15 June, there were 15 states contributing to 94 per cent of the total Covid case load in the country.
Among these states, 40 districts account for 70 per cent of the total disease burden. As many as 28 of these districts account for more than 80 per cent of the total deaths.
Five states — Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal — account for more than 82 per cent of the total deaths.
The focus now is increasingly on saving lives through early detection, tracking of infected people and their isolation, the CMs were told. But the silver lining is that India continues to have a low fatality rate of 3.4 per cent against the global average of over 5 per cent. India has among the lowest cases and deaths per lakh population.
Addressing the CMs Tuesday, Modi mentioned India is among the nations with the least deaths due to coronavirus. He said health experts world over are praising the discipline shown by Indians, adding that the recovery rate in the country is now over 50 per cent.
“The big lesson is that if we remain disciplined and follow all rules, coronavirus will cause least damage,” he said.
But low Covid testing continues to be a concern and Modi, during the meeting, stressed on the need for states to ramp up their testing capacities.
Also read: Covid growth rate is now falling in worst-hit states. But it’s not all good news elsewhere