Ludhiana: Dilbagh Singh’s IELTS coaching business in Faridkot, Punjab, began with a bang but ended with a whimper. He blames Canada for this.
“We have completely collapsed,” he said.
Even a year ago, there was a clamour among aspirants going abroad to be tutored by him, but he would take no more than 30 students. The English language standardised test is a stepping stone to the Canadian dream. But this year, only 15 students signed up—and most of them dropped out of the course midway. Singh finally had to shut down his decade-old coaching centre, English Birds.
Nobody is flying to Canada in a hurry.
Increasing tension between Canada and India, rising visa rejections, and a slew of immigration policies by the Justin Trudeau-led government to curb the inflow of migrants has soured the Punjab-Canada dream. Hundreds of businesses – from coaching centres to visa consultants and agents – have had to shut shop.
The industry’s IELTS coaching volume has taken a hit of almost 80 per cent, while visa processing service requirements have reduced by 60-70 per cent over the last few months, office bearers of the Study Abroad Consultants Association (SACA) said. Industry experts such as Mitesh Malhotra, the national president of SACA, estimate that around 35 per cent of visa immigration centres have folded in Punjab since December 2023.
The cost of moving to Canada has increased from Rs 22-23 lakh to Rs 37 lakh since the revision in policies earlier this year. Students have simply dropped plans to study abroad now,” Singh claimed – Dilbagh Singh, IELTS coaching business owner
Where mustard fields once displayed hoardings from travel consultants, and school children would dream of reaching Canada like their siblings, bitterness has set in.
On 24 January 2024, Canada dropped a bombshell by limiting its foreign student intake to 3.6 lakh— a sharp decrease of 35 per cent from 2023—in addition to capping undergraduate students in each province. Ottawa also declared that international students enrolled in private colleges offering licensed curriculum will not be eligible for work permits after completing their degrees, and revoked visas of the spouses of undergraduate students.
Just last week, the Trudeau government announced that it is reversing its expansion of the low-wage temporary foreign worker programme. And the potential deportation of more than 70,000 students has set off alarm bells in Punjab.
The Canada bubble has soured. It’s now a saga of dreams deferred if not destroyed. Increasing visa rejections and the rising cost of living have had a role to play as well.
“The cost of moving to Canada has increased from Rs 22-23 lakh to Rs 37 lakh since the revision in policies earlier this year. Students have simply dropped plans to study abroad now,” Singh claimed.
On the flip side, the ‘dunki’ route adopted by Indians to enter countries illegally is thriving. Since December 2023, more than 5,000 Indians illegally entered the United States from the Canadian border, exceeding the number of people who cross over to the country from the notorious Mexico border. The number of Indians seeking asylum ‘at port’ in the United Kingdom has also been sky-rocketing.
Industry leaders say the current situation is volatile and unpredictable but not unprecedented. Karan Makhija, the president of Sethi Study Circle and Saviour Education likens it to what happened in the United Kingdom in 2012.
“The UK had put out a blanket ban on immigration, which was a shocker for us because it was then the preferred destination for Punjabis. But overnight we pivoted our business towards Canada,” said Makhija.
Braving visa rejections
Twenty-year-old Nisha, a BA student from Ludhiana, was devastated when her visa application to Canada was rejected a few weeks ago. It was her second rejection. Now, all her friends have left, while her future is in limbo.
“My visa file didn’t get approved because of a technical issue,” she said. Her family has invested more than Rs 20 lakh — Rs 12 lakh for the mandatory guaranteed investment certificate and another Rs 11 lakh toward college fees.
“I know how my parents have managed to arrange this money. There’s no looking back for me now, I have to go and send remittances back so we can start recovering this money,” she said.
Nisha is preparing to try again. She goes to college every day but dreams of what her classroom in Canada would look like. She constantly stays in touch with her cousins there, to get a feel of the living conditions. Now she looks at the aircraft that fly over her, dreaming of the day she’d be on one of them.
The UK had put out a blanket ban on immigration, which was a shocker for us because it was then the preferred destination for Punjabis. But overnight we pivoted our business towards Canada – Karan Makhija, president of Sethi Study Circle and Saviour Education
On the other hand, Kulbir Singh (24) has decided against Canada. However, it still consumes his thoughts as he labours on the family farm in Mansa’s Joga village.
He, or rather his father, has decided against going there now.
“The situation in Canada is really bad. Gangster culture is on the rise. Punjabis are shot at and thrown in rivers and nobody even gets to know. Punjab is safer than that,” his father Kuldeep Singh said. He’s of the view that the “growing Khalistani activity” in Canada is not suitable for a young man.
“Kulbir is fine here, close to me,” he said, as his obedient son smiled in agreement.
Like Nisha, Kulbir has also lost all his friends to Canada. His visa was rejected this year, and he has already asked for a refund of his college fees.
For now, he is completing his BCom at a college in Barnala, and working on his father’s farms. He is interested in upgrading the technology used there. He’s also busy decorating a truck that will carry parali (stubble) to a nearby processing centre instead of burning it.
“I don’t think I’d have led a better life in Canada anyway. My sisters are both MBAs from Punjabi University in Patiala. But now they work at Burger King in Canada. I am not even an MBA,” he said.
Also read: The Great Punjabi Dream is going beyond Canada. Even Cyprus, Croatia, Malta will do
Disappearing students, closing shops
Up until December, Amritsar’s Ranjit Avenue — the hub of travel agents, consultants and IELTS coaching centres — was so packed with students’ scooters and bikes that there was no place to walk. Now, empty parking spaces tell the story of a suffering business industry.
“The street outside used to be flooded with Activas and bikes of students seeking IELTS coaching. Only half of that parking space is occupied now. Classrooms are empty, and every other day there’s a new exit from the street. It’s scary,” said a former visa consultant who recently shut down his business. The consultant specialised in processing visa applications for Canada.
The situation in Canada is really bad. Gangster culture is on the rise. Punjabis are shot at and thrown in rivers and nobody even gets to know. Punjab is safer than that – Kuldeep Singh, Kulbir Singh’s father
Even established consultancy firms are being forced to close IELTS coaching outlets where enrollment has dropped to almost zero. Malhotra, who is also the founder of Saviour Education Abroad, had to downsize from nine coaching centres and 2,000 students to three centres and barely a hundred students.
Meanwhile, Makhija, who had earlier planned an expansion, is down to six centres from nine. Thanks to dwindling enrollment, he has had to shut down three centres since December 2023.
“It was a very tough call. Opening a centre needs a lot of aspiration and manpower. Back in 2023, we were thinking we would open more centres but unfortunately, the reverse has happened,” said Makhija. He estimates that the downsizing started seven to eight months ago, and is now gathering speed. “Every day, so many veterans in our association are shutting down centres, putting up their shops for rent.”
Increasing complications in immigration have also led to internal protests against visa agencies, who are accused by ‘farmer groups’ of fleecing children if their visas don’t come through. They’re sandwiched between terrorism from Canada and hooliganism in Punjab. Business owners frequently receive ransom calls from gangsters sitting in Canada, while farmer groups intimidate and create pressure back home if a candidate is unable to get their dream visa.
“It is extremely difficult to do business in Punjab. I know a lot of veterans who have either exited the business or shifted base to Chandigarh or another state,” said Malhotra.
Makhija, on the other hand, is more optimistic and pegs the uncertainty to the 2025 Canadian elections.
“These changes are because of internal politics and nothing else. After the Canadian elections, things should look better. Till then, we weather the storm.”
Much like every sector, immigration too has its crests and troughs. Immediately after the Covid-19 pandemic, a dearth of blue-collar labour in countries like Canada and Australia opened the gates of immigration. The eligibility to secure a visa was reduced. There was a 90 per cent success rate in visa approvals according to Malhotra. Punjabis knew that was the right time to get their ticket to Canada, and business boomed.
I don’t think I’d have led a better life in Canada anyway. My sisters are both MBAs from Punjabi University in Patiala. But now they work at Burger King in Canada. I am not even an MBA – Kulbir Singh, 24
Students with less-than-desirable IELTS scores were also getting a chance to experience life in Canada. These were people whose English was so weak and lives so insular that they would find it difficult to adapt to another country’s culture, according to Malhotra.
“Post Covid, business boomed. I opened new branches and had close to 2,000 students taking IELTS coaching at various locations in various batches,” Malhotra told ThePrint, insisting that this is more of a market correction.
“It had to happen.”
But not everyone can weather this storm. To-let signs on former IELTS centres, messages on the SACA WhatsApp group about centres closing down, job losses and disappearing students in newly built classrooms have defined the daily experiences of entrepreneurs. There just aren’t enough students who can be sent abroad, with the new cap. The Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) has also been doubled from Canadian $10,000 to $20,000, which has made the dream of flying to Ottawa even more unreachable.
With liberal work permits not on the horizon, the number of Indians seeking refugee status and asylum in Canada has also increased manifold. While more than 9,000 claims for refugee status were filed in 2023, more than 6,000 people had applied for asylum in Canada just between January and March this year.
“This year has been a roller coaster ride. Our industry is also a job creator in Punjab, it has affected lives in many ways,” said Makhija.
Also read: India can’t wait for Canadians to vote out Justin Trudeau next year. Act now
European pivot
The coaching centres that are still active have students who are willing to trade their Canadian dream for Europe instead. With Canada and even Australia, becoming more selective, some families are pivoting to the UK and Germany.
Opening a centre needs a lot of aspiration and manpower. Back in 2023, we were thinking we would open more centres but unfortunately, the reverse has happened – Karan Makhija, president of Sethi Study Circle and Saviour Education
A student from Barnala, whose visa got rejected, told ThePrint over the phone that he won’t stop trying to leave India.
“Canada rejected me and so did Australia, I am now trying for Europe. I have to go out of the country come what may. I don’t want to face joblessness here and get trapped with peers who do nasha [drugs] all day,” the student said.
But interest in Europe is nowhere near compared to the traffic Canada attracts.
“We tried to push for European countries, but there’s a language barrier. Students struggle to speak English, and learning a third language then becomes a Herculean task for them. For businesses with low volume, pushing for Europe has been beneficial, but it can’t replace Canada,” Makhija said.
Though the Scandinavian or Baltic countries are cheaper options (compared to the US and Canada) with more liberal immigration policies, they hold no interest in Punjab.
“Winters last in those European countries for six months. It is too cold. I don’t want to go there,” said Puneet Kaur, 19, who wants to shift to Canada by next year.
Students were also aware and apprehensive of the rising housing cost in Canada. The average rent has increased by as much as nine per cent in the past year.
“There are no jobs for graduating students, and people are also living in basements. It doesn’t sound very nice,” said Puneet.
Malhotra maintains that migration to European countries is also not appealing to students because they generally don’t have relatives or friends there. “In the village, it is not that impressive to go to a European country. Many students just want to go to Canada and are waiting for the situation to change,” he said.
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Internal and external pressures
January’s immigration changes led to a snowballing of negative content about migration to Canada. Indian students started flooding Instagram with reels that shattered the mirage of a perfect utopia. They spoke of no jobs and insufferable inflation.
“Don’t just apply on LinkedIn and Indeed, apply on other apps and you’ll get a response, maybe even a job,” one such reel boasts. In another video, an old man says students don’t even have proper clothing in Canada and should avoid immigrating. Another one very simply exhibits the absence of a fun life; the person in the reel has to leave for work before she can even hit the bed. That’s the struggle of moving abroad.
Winters last in those European countries for six months. It is too cold. I don’t want to go there – Puneet Kaur, 19
Businessmen like Malhotra sent staff to Canada to read the situation and counter the negative campaign.
“The situation is not as bad as these people say. Only those who are not qualified to get a job are suffering, not diligent students. But when we posted videos, we got a lot of backlash and had to withdraw them,” Malhotra said. In the comments, students and Canadian residents accused them of whitewashing their problems and called them liars.
Villagers also often gather at the offices of visa and immigration agents to demand a refund.
A similar gherao unfolded in Amritsar in August, where a mob claiming to represent a farmer’s group targeted an agency for allegedly defrauding a youth from their village.
Villagers reached the agency with sticks and stones in their hands. “When they called the police, they were told that the farmers have defeated Modi and that we can’t stand in front of them,” Malhotra said.
But even in the face of these struggles, students like Puneet are steadfast in their resolve to move abroad.
“What does India have? Nothing. There are no jobs. It only makes sense to move out. There will be struggles but I’ll make something of myself.”
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)