New Delhi: Pakistanis are cautious about Donald Trump’s second term as US president but are convinced that the country doesn’t “figure high on the president’s priorities”.
Analysts and editorials view his tenure with “expectation and fear”. The consensus is that while the stakes are high, the country’s ability to adapt to a more transactional and unpredictable global landscape will be key to securing its national interests in the years to come.
“Few have forgotten how disruptive Mr Trump could be as president. Though his speech yesterday was almost statesmanlike in some respects, many will continue watching Mr Trump to see whether he has really changed”, a Dawn editorial noted.
PTI and its high hopes
For Imran Khan’s supporters, the hope is that Trump’s presidency will provide a strong lever to secure the former prime minister’s release. The theory is straightforward: the US still holds considerable influence over Pakistan, particularly in military matters, and Trump could use this leverage to press for Khan’s rehabilitation.
The historical relationship between the US and Pakistan has been built on military cooperation, with the Pentagon’s ties to the Pakistani military being one of the most enduring aspects of the bilateral relationship. With the US maintaining significant military assistance to Pakistan, it’s easy to see why Khan’s supporters remain optimistic that Trump could push for his freedom. However, this outlook may be overly simplistic, Pakistani political analyst Omar Quraishi wrote for The Friday Times.
“Imran Khan’s supporters see Trump’s second term as a potential boost for his release, but Pakistan’s diminished priority in US foreign policy suggests limited leverage. Economic ties must replace security reliance. Pakistan will have to be on its toes for the next four years as far as relations with the US are concerned”, he wrote.
The reality of US foreign policy under Trump is likely to be far more nuanced.
“Pakistan will have to be very cautious and careful because several Indian Americans, all sympathetic to Modi and the BJP, have been nominated to senior posts in the incoming US government, and also that the wife of the incoming Vice-President is of Indian origin,” Quraishi added.
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‘No longer based on nostalgia’
For the Pakistani establishment, the fear of external interference in domestic affairs looms large. Pakistani journalist Amir Zia in a panel discussion said that while the country’s borders with Iran, India, and China continue to be a key strategic consideration for the US, there remains anxiety over the potential for Washington to exert pressure on Pakistan’s internal political landscape. The fear is that, under Trump, the US would intervene in ways that complicate Pakistan’s domestic policies, especially in areas such as freedom of the press and human rights.
A key factor in recalibrating the US-Pakistan relationship is Pakistan’s diminished status on the global stage. In recent years, Pakistan’s leverage over Washington has waned, particularly with the departure of US troops from Afghanistan, which had been a cornerstone of US-Pakistan cooperation.
“With Trump’s presidency on the horizon, US-Pakistan relations need recalibration, moving beyond misperceptions, nostalgia and emotional bias, towards a pragmatic, interest-driven approach,” former ambassador Touqir Hussain wrote in Dawn, adding that, “the transactional US-Pakistan relations will now be in the hands of the transactional Trump.”
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