It’s not everyday that the global attention moves from one nuclear-dyad to the other one. But such are the times.
Tuesday’s airstrikes conducted by India against Jaish-e-Mohammed terror camp in Pakistan swiftly moved all global attention away from the “second Trump-Kim summit” in Hanoi, Vietnam.
However, US President Donald Trump and the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, will be meeting later Wednesday for their second bilateral summit.
With the much eyed summit set to take place, ThePrint looks at 5 things that shed light on the past, present, and future of the US-North Korea relationship.
#1: How did we get here?
For decades, US had demanded North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme. When North Korea didn’t oblige, America used sanctions.
There were phases of relative peace, but the underlying issue of a potential “nuclear North Korea” never went away.
But something changed a couple of years ago. In September 2017, North Korea had its first successful nuclear test. It was now effectively the world’s ninth nuclear power.
This eventually forced Trump to get on the table with the North Korean leader.
#2: Last Summit and “complete Denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula”
After decades of hostility, the American and North Korean leaders had their first summit last summer in Singapore.
Successive US administrations have demanded that North Korea completely gives up its nuclear programme. But all possible evidence suggests that North Korea has no plans to give up its nuclear capability.
The key point on the released joint statement talked about “complete denuclearization of the North Korean peninsula”.
This is clever phrasing. What North Koreans mean here that they insist on complete denuclearisation of the entire Korean peninsula, which includes removal of American forces and its strategic assets from South Korea.
Such clever conditionality allows North Korea to keep its nuclear arsenal.
After the last summit, the hostility between North Korea and US was relatively tamed. And official diplomatic relations were established.
#3: What has happened since the last summit?
Since the last summit, Kim has provided some symbolic gestures. North Korea has stopped publicly testing missiles and closed down some of its old nuclear facilities.
In the meantime all evidence suggests that North Korea has been gradually expanding its nuclear arsenal.
#4: What to expect in this Vietnam Summit?
Most analysts have very low expectations from the second Trump-Kim summit. In a telling scoop, Vox managed to access the tentative deal between Trump and Kim.
According to the report, a likely deal will feature four things. The two countries will sign a symbolic peace declaration to officially end Korean War. North Korea is expected to return the remains of US troops who died during the Korean War. Both countries will establish quasi-embassies.
Lastly, North Korea will completely abandon its production of nuclear bombs at the Yongbyon facility. And in exchange the US will push the United Nations to relax some sanctions on North Korea.
#5: The emerging camps in Trump administration, while Kim scores some victory points
According to an article in Foreign Policy, Trump along with his North Korea envoy, Stephen Biegun, is on one side. The duo is ready to give up on decades of US’s North Korea policy and live with a nuclear North Korea.
On the other side is Trump’s national security advisor John Bolton and the rest of US’s national security administration. They insist on North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons.
From the looks of it, it is quite evident that Trump and Biegun are winning. But the real victor here is North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, who will succeed in getting some economic sanctions lifted, and allow North Korea some much needed economic growth.