As 2 ‘friends’ meet, how Modi will walk Trump’s tightrope & still get what India wants

Global media reports on how both leaders view foreign policy as transactional & how the meeting will set the tenor for trade, immigration & threat of an increasingly assertive China.

Image: Manali Ghosh | ThePrint

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has landed in Washington D.C. for a highly publicised meeting with US President Donald Trump, the first after the two “friends” were voted back to power.

But things have changed since their last meeting. Trump has come to power in a very different America and seems to have a renewed outlook on both domestic and foreign policy. Ever the transactional dealmaker, Trump is expected to announce a new policy of reciprocal tariffs, just hours before meeting with Modi—the leader of the country he calls ‘Tariff King’.

And of course, the global media is watching how the high-stakes meeting will play out, presumably setting the tenor for the next few years.

“India is acutely aware that the trade and immigration issues are a potential double whammy in Mr. Trump’s universe of preoccupations,” Mujib Mashal reports for the New York Times.

“So far, while Mr. Trump has threatened even close allies with punitive tariffs over these issues, India has managed to stay out of his crosshairs. If any country can walk the tightrope of Mr. Trump’s hurricane-force return to power, India believes it is the one,” says the report titled ‘Modi Hopes a White House Visit Will Keep India Out of Trump’s Sights’.

The two countries are the world’s largest democracies, the NYT reports, and both see a shared threat in an increasingly assertive China. Modi is the fourth world leader to meet Trump since he took office three weeks ago, following the Japanese, Israeli and Jordanian leaders.

“Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi share much in common. Both are strongman leaders who hold largely transactional views of foreign policy, with a populist’s sense of what plays well with the base,” reports NYT. “Even as Mr. Modi has shown a willingness to go along with Mr. Trump’s muscle-flexing, he is working to get what India needs out of the relationship. That is particularly true with Mr. Trump’s push to undo a range of Biden-era legal actions.”

The article goes on to explore opportunities to improve bilateral ties in technology and trade, as well as in defence cooperation. India is now the world’s largest importer of military arms, accounting for nearly 10 percent of the global total.

US defence sales to India hover around the $25 billion mark, up from “almost nothing in 2008.” With India expected to spend more than $200 billion over the next decade to modernise its military, the US could fill that gap.

Another NYT report—‘What Modi and India Can Offer Trump on Tariffs and Trade’—looks specifically at trade. The economic relationship between India and the US is widely seen as good for both sides. Two-way trade is growing, writes Alex Travelli, and “alone among Asian countries, India routinely trades more with the United States than it does with China, its neighbour and rival”.

But India does have a complicated list of tariffs, a colonial legacy from when Britain would use trade practices to exploit resources. And unlike most Asian countries, India has its own trade deficit to worry about. The report says that “India, which depends on imports for most of its fuel needs, runs a deficit worth between 8 and 12 percent most years. That has driven down the value of India’s currency, the rupee, to painful levels”.

What could India do to satisfy Trump? Buying hydrocarbons and defence items is one thing, reports the NYT. “There is some room for India to make offerings on tariffs,” it goes on to say. Harley Davidson is one such deal, as well as easing restrictions on consumables like bourbon, pecan nuts, almonds, and meat.

The Financial Times reports that it is “quite clear” Trump expected India to buy more from the US, including American oil.” It also mentions the potential for defence cooperation.

Also on the table is a meeting with Elon Musk, FT reports in ‘Narendra Modi seeks to bolster ties with US via trade and energy deals’, especially as Musk has publicly talked about investing in India through SpaceX and Tesla.

“Outwardly, the Trump-Modi relationship remains upbeat, reflecting past friendly ties between the two leaders and expanding US-Indian defence, technology and other co-operation designed to counteract China,” reports FT, before reminding us of the ways in which Trump has described Modi: “a friend”, “the nicest” and, apparently in jest, “a total killer”.

Meanwhile, geostrategist Brahma Chellaney writes in Project Syndicate that the relationship between India and the US “took a turn for the worse” after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Biden administration was pushing for America’s allies and partners to “punish” Russia, but India stayed neutral, even seizing an opportunity to secure cheap Russian oil.

Other points of contention include imposing sanctions on Myanmar and sending non-lethal aid to rebel groups, “a policy that has contributed to instability in India’s border state of Manipur,” Chellaney writes in ‘Putting the Trump-Modi Bromance to the Test.’

A $450 million deal was finalised in 2022 with Pakistan, to upgrade its fleet of F-16 fighter jets. And the Biden administration welcomed the interim government in Bangladesh, led by Mohammed Yunus—the situation has been tense for India, with many believing that the US had a hand in the regime change.

There’s also the matter of “America’s approach to Sikh separatist leaders on its soil” which has also “raised India’s hackles,” Chellaney reminds his readers. Under the Biden administration, the US not only carried out criminal investigations into India’s alleged involvement in murder-for-hire plots, but also charged Gautam Adani for bribery.

“Against this backdrop, it is easy to see why Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election raised hopes in India for a reset in bilateral relations,” writes Chellaney.

“A few weeks into Trump’s second presidency, however, there are reasons to doubt this rosy scenario. So far, Trump has done nothing to spare India from his frenetic push to implement his campaign promises, from raising tariffs to deporting undocumented immigrants. When the Trump administration sent more than 100 Indian nationals back to India on a military aircraft—a 40-hour ordeal—their hands and feet were shackled. Modi said nothing.”

Instead of “standing up to Trump,” Modi seems to be preemptively slashing tariffs and imports to keep India out of his sights. Trump seems to want India to wipe out its $35 billion bilateral trade surplus, and instead start importing American oil—part of Trump’s domestic agenda to “drill, baby, drill”.

“But Trump has never been particularly concerned about ensuring that his trade agreements are mutually beneficial. Regarding India, his plan may well be to use the threat of tariffs to compel Modi’s government to accept the trade deal of his choosing,” writes Chellaney. “Where trade is concerned, Trump treats friends and foes alike. But it matters that India is a friend—and Trump should want to keep it that way,” he warns.

(Edited by Sanya Mathur)