New Delhi: Negotiations on carbon trading, formalising a fund that compensates the most vulnerable countries reeling from the damages of climate change and pushing for the phasing out of fossil fuel in “one of the top oil-producing countries”, United Arab Emirates (UAE) — the world awaits to see what unfolds at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP (Conference of Parties) 28, scheduled to begin in Dubai Thursday.
The 12-day climate talks have been held annually since the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and 196 countries will be participating in this year’s convention at the UAE capital.
While the choice of destination for this year’s conference has raised some eyebrows — owing to UAE’s position as a major oil-producing country — on the table are important negotiations.
So far, the two most historically significant COP conferences have been the 1997 COP3 in Kyoto, Japan, and the 2015 COP21 in Paris, France.
The 1997 conference resulted in the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, which established legally binding emission reduction targets for the high-income countries. This in turn marked a significant step in the international effort to address climate change.
The 2015 COP21 led to the historic Paris Agreement, which set the goal of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
Scientists have warned that global warming beyond the two degree limit will have catastrophic effects.
Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement is intended to be universal, involving all countries.
While most countries have signed and agreed to the clauses of the Paris Agreement, its implementation is what COP28 will deal with. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, during a press conference in New York in June this year, expressed concern at the current state of affairs, noting that the world is likely to see a 2.8°C temperature rise (above pre-industrial levels) by the end of the century.
“I am very worried about where the world stands on climate. Countries are far off track in meeting climate promises and commitments. I see a lack of ambition. A lack of trust. A lack of support. A lack of cooperation. And an abundance of problems around clarity and credibility,” Guterres had said. He added that a time when the world should be accelerating action, there is backtracking.
What to expect in COP28
First global stocktake: The most awaited outcome of this year’s summit will be the first global stocktake, the two-year long evaluation of progress toward the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement commitments.
This document, to which India has been a key contributor, will highlight the hits and misses in the journey towards the Paris goals so far.
According to the UNFCCC, the global stocktake is a critical turning point when it comes to efforts to address climate change. “It’s a moment to take a long, hard look at the state of our planet and chart a better course for the future,” says the UNFCC about the stocktake on its website.
There are, however, many sections of the draft document that all parties are yet to agree on.
Loss and Damage Fund: Another important goal will be to operationalise the ‘Loss and Damages’ fund (L&DF) created at last year’s COP, to provide critical financial assistance to nations which are most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
India has been one of the most vocal supporters of the fund, along with ‘small-island-developing-states’ (SIDS).
The ‘Loss and Damages’ fund transitional committee set up after COP27 was tasked with hammering out the details of the fund before COP28. However, despite five transitional committee meetings held throughout the year, the final draft proposal found no mention of who the funders would be.
On 4 November, the transitional committee adopted the L&DF proposal that would be presented at COP28 for countries to approve. The proposal suggests the fund should be hosted at the World Bank for an interim period of four years. It acknowledges that the fund is a way to “assist developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change” but only ‘urges’ and ‘invites’ the high-income countries to voluntarily contribute to the fund.
Low-and middle-income countries are not happy with the recommendations, show media reports. COP28 will decide the future of the ‘Loss and Damages’ Fund. If negotiations are successful, the COP28 will be a big win for the low-and-middle-income countries.
Article 6: COP28 is also expected to bring about a global agreement on a proper mechanism for international carbon trading. Carbon trading, also known as emissions trading or cap-and-trade, is a market-based approach used to control carbon emissions by providing economic incentives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Companies can buy and sell allowances in the carbon market. This creates a financial incentive for companies to reduce their emissions efficiently. Entities with lower emissions can profit by selling allowances to those with higher emissions.
Approved at COP26 in Glasgow, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement creates a proper rulebook for the operation of international carbon markets. Its stringent offsetting rules are aligned with the Paris Agreement.
However, several key aspects of Article 6, especially sections that introduce a new mechanism for global emission trading under the supervision of UNFCCC, have still not been agreed upon, according to media reports.
Global Methane Pledge: The Global Methane Pledge (GMP) is a voluntary framework supporting nations to take action to collectively reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030. This could eliminate over 0.2˚C of warming by 2050.
Launched at COP26 by the European Union and the United States, over 150 countries have signed the GMP.
As the second largest global methane emitter, according to the International Energy Agency, India is likely to be under pressure to sign it. India has declined signing the GMP at the previous two COPs, citing measures taken to reduce methane emission. It also said that methane emissions are “survival” emissions for the country, unlike in the West, where they’re “luxury” emissions.
The two main sources of methane emissions in India, according to media reports, are “enteric fermentation” — which is methane from the intestines of animals — and standing water in paddy cultivation. Both are linked to agricultural activities of small, marginalised farmers across India.
Survival emissions are those necessary for activities required to live a healthy life while luxury emissions are those generated from non-essential activities, such as flying frequently.
Controversies & politics
There is some scepticism around the UAE hosting COP28. As one of the top ten oil-producing countries in the world, UAE is unlikely to agree on complete and urgent phasing out of fossil fuels, according to analysts cited by media reports.
Moreover, this year’s president for the event is Sultan Al-Jaber, the head of Adnoc, the UAE’s state-owned oil company.
According to a BBC report, the UAE planned to use its role as the host as an opportunity to strike oil and gas deals. However, a Reuters report quoted a COP28 spokesperson as saying that the the documents cited in the BBC report were “inaccurate”.
Meanwhile, Al-Jaber has outlined four priorities for the summit — fast-tracking the renewable energy transition, securing funding for the most-affected countries from high-polluting countries, focusing on livelihoods and nature, and making COP28 the most inclusive climate summit.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
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