New Delhi: The El Niño in 2026 is turning out to be the strongest ever recorded in at least the last 150 years, by a wide margin, making forecasts of extreme heat, increased climate-related deaths, and severe food shortages a very real possibility in the coming months, weather forecasting models and climate scientists have warned.
Analysing data since 1877, climatologist Zeke Hausfather, lead climate scientist at the financial technology company Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, said that the 2026 El Niño is on track to become the strongest such event ever recorded, at least since reliable record-keeping began.
He said that current climate models indicate that this weather event is also expected to surpass all previous records by a “long margin”. Multiple global models show that no El Niño year before 2026 has seen this level of warming this early in the year. The month of July, in just the first 13 days, has already recorded a mean temperature of 2°C above normal.
“The median estimate is now 3.6°C, roughly 0.8°C hotter than the prior record (2.75°C),” Hausfather said in his analysis.
El Niño, or the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a climate phenomenon in which trade winds and surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean change patterns, leading to large-scale disruptions in weather patterns across the world.
In Asia, including India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and even Australia, El Niño conditions are typically associated with weaker monsoons, and sometimes even droughts.
What do past records say?
Data show that since 1877, two major El Niño events have stood out — 2015-16 and 1877-78. Apart from these, the years 1982-83 and 1997-98 have also been categorised as ‘super El Niño’ years.
The median estimate for 2026 is currently 3.6°C above average in the Niño 3.4 region — the central equatorial Pacific Ocean — around 0.8°C warmer than the previous record of about 2.75°C in 2015-16.
Weather models warn that the middle 80 per cent of the 2026 El Niño forecast ensemble is already sitting higher than the all-time record. This means that the coming 12-18 months are going to be warmer than any other year in history.
“The strongest El Niño is brewing, which essentially means that 2027 is likely to be one of the hottest years on record. Adaptation and mitigation measures need to be taken seriously if we are to prepare for these months,” said Roxy Koll, a climate scientist at Pune’s Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
Impact on India
Scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) explained that the biggest impact of this El Niño is going to be on the Indian monsoon. Below-normal rain will worsen temperatures in most areas and will likely increase food stress.
“During most El Niño years, rainfall over India is below normal or deficient. This is what is likely to happen this year as well. Because India is so rainfall-dependent, the effects tend to snowball,” said M Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at IMD.
Officials from the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare said that the government is preparing to cushion the impact of a record-breaking El Niño year. The ministry has constituted a team of multiple stakeholders that is keeping track of the forecasts and guiding states to assist the most vulnerable sections.
“Planning is happening on multiple levels. Of course, agriculture is likely to be impacted the most, we are assessing how we can provide better bailouts and infrastructure support to farmers during this period. We are also coordinating with state health services to ensure that there are minimal heat casualties during these months,” said a ministry official who is part of the coordination committee.
(Edited by Prashant Dixit)