Kolkata: In one of the tightest elections in recent times, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a clear edge in West Bengal, leading in 188 seats at 1.15 pm, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) ahead in 92 seats.
These are initial trends but if it holds and the BJP trounces the TMC, it will be a historic first for the saffron party. Celebrations have already started in the BJP party office in Kolkata’s Salt Lake, with party workers dancing and distributing laddoos.
If the Trinamool Congress number shows a declining trend after later rounds too, it could be a reflection of the massive anti-incumbency against the party, which has been in power for 15 years.
The elections were held in the backdrop of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls that saw approximately 91 lakh voters getting deleted from the voter list. If the initial trend holds the SIR seems to have had an impact as a majority of deleted names were from the minority community, one of TMC’s main vote banks.
The other surprise in the initial round has been the expelled TMC MLA Humayun Kabir, who is leading from Naoda constituency in Murshidabad district. Kabir launched his own party — the Aam Janata Unnayan Party — just before the elections.
In a message to party workers, Mamata exhorted counting agents and candidates not to leave voting or counting areas. “In many places, counting has even been stopped after 2–3 rounds at around 100 locations. They are using central forces to harass TMC workers, our offices are being vandalised. You have already seen how votes were cut in the name of SIR,” she said, adding that her party will “all fight together like lions”.
How BJP built on disenchantment narrative
The BJP had built on this narrative of disenchantment among the people against the rampant corruption by TMC leaders, the culture of cut money and lack of development in the state.
The initial trends indicate West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee leading from her home turf Bhabanipur with a thin margin of 8482 votes after four out of total 20 rounds. Her once close aide and now a prominent BJP face, Suvendu Adhikari is trailing from Bhabanipur.
Adhikari, who is the unofficial face of the BJP in West Bengal is leading from his other constituency Nandigram, again with a thin margin of 7,714 votes after the first round.
Winning Bengal is politically and ideologically significant for the BJP. Politically, the party is expected to benefit from Bengal’s victory in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. Bengal has 42 parliamentary seats and an increased tally will help the BJP, which saw its total seats decline to 240 in 2024 from 303 in 2019.
But more than politically, winning the eastern state is ideologically crucial for the BJP. The state is the birthplace of Syama Prasad Mukherjee, the founder of Bharatiya Jan Sangh, the predecessor of BJP. Though BJP had made inroads in the east, Bengal somehow remained out of its grip.
The party had expanded its footprints in the state though–from winning three seats in 2016 to 77 seats in 2021. Having reached so far, this time around the party did not leave any stone unturned.
For Mamata, it was one of the toughest fight of her political career so far. The opposition BJP led a relentless campaign highlighting 15 years of the TMC ‘misrule’, rampant corruption by her MLAs, lack of jobs and visible development in the state.
Mamata was, in fact, the TMC’s face in Bengal. During her campaigning, she repeatedly told the people to consider her as the candidate contesting in all 294 seats of the West Bengal Assembly.
Fondly referred to as ‘Didi (elder sister)’, the 71-year-old’s personal charisma still holds, especially among women, one of her core vote banks. Her welfare schemes, especially for women like the Lakshmir Bhandar under which general category women get a cash transfer of Rs 1,500 and those from Scheduled Caste Rs 1,700 every month, have given her a loyal following.
To counter it, the BJP promised to double the financial aid to women in the party manifesto.
As Mamata and her party countered the charges, the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls dealt another blow. Some 90 lakh names were deleted in the run-up to the election. A majority of them were from the Muslim-dominated districts of Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpur. Comprising 27 percent of the population, Muslims are another TMC core vote bank after women.
Closer to the polls, the Election Commission initiated a massive cleanup of Mamata’s administration–transferring the state’s top bureaucrats including the chief secretary and police commissioner. It was against these odds that Mamata fought and steered her party ahead.
The BJP started its preparation early on. BJP national general secretary Sunil Bansal was sent to the state two years back to prepare the party’s election strategy. Together with his team, he started visiting districts after districts mapping the party’s weaknesses and addressing them.
How crucial winning Bengal was to BJP’s could be gauged from the fact that Union Home Minister Amit Shah camped there for a fortnight to oversee the party’s overall preparedness and campaign strategy.
The approach this time around was different from 2021, where senior BJP leaders took to personally attacking Mamata. Instead, this time around, they built on the disenchantment against the TMC, especially the fear factor propagated by her party colleagues. In fact, one of BJP’s main campaign slogans this time around was ‘Bacchte chai tai BJP chai (I want to live and that is why I want BJP)’.
Closer to the election, to ensure a violence-free election, the Centre moved close to 2.5 lakh personnel of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF)–three times the number deployed in 2021. The impact was visible on the ground. Barring some sporadic incidents of violence, this was the most peaceful elections that Bengal had seen in a long time.
The other two opposition parties–the Congress the Left–made minimal impact. The CPI(M) is leading in one seat while the Congress is nowhere in the picture in the initial rounds. Congress’ Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury was trailing in his home constituency Baharampur with 5,266 votes after the third round of counting. BJP’s Subrata Maitra was leading with 31,365 votes
(Edited by Tony Rai)