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HomeElectionsKarnataka Assembly ElectionsBJP & JD(S) edge out Congress in direct fights — analysing strike...

BJP & JD(S) edge out Congress in direct fights — analysing strike rates in Karnataka polls

More than 80% of seats BJP won in last 4 Karnataka polls saw direct contests with Congress. BJP improved its strike rate against JD(S) to 65% in 2018 from 31.25% in 2004.

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New Delhi: With voting in Karnataka less than a month away, both the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) have dubbed each other the ‘B-team’ of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which already has its hands full dealing with the fallout of its ticket distribution strategy. Against this backdrop, ThePrint takes a look at how these three mainstays of Karnataka politics have fared against each other in direct contests.

An analysis by ThePrint shows that between 2004 and 2018, half of Karnataka’s 224 assembly seats have witnessed a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress — with BJP sustaining a strike rate of 60 per cent in these seats.

Illustration: Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint
Illustration: Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint

Similarly, in seats that witnessed a direct contest between the Congress and the JD(S) from 2004 until now, the H.D. Deve Gowda-led party has maintained a strike rate of 52 per cent.

On how the dynamic between these three parties has evolved over the years, political analysts say 2004 was the “transition election” when the primary contest shifted from Congress vs JD(S) to Congress vs BJP. The election that year concluded with a fractured mandate; the BJP had won 79 seats, the Congress 65 and the JD(S) 58.

Writing for Moneycontrol earlier this month, political analyst Sanjay Kumar pointed out that the JD(S) has a “sizeable presence” only in the southern Karnataka region, whereas the Congress’s votes are “widely spread out” across the state.

“While this has been to the disadvantage of the Congress, it could also have a positive impact. A minor swing (four per cent) of votes in favour of the Congress, away from BJP and JD(S) can give a majority of seats to the Congress party in 2023,” wrote Kumar, who is also a professor at Delhi’s Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

As a result of this distinction, Karnataka sees a significant number of BJP-Congress and JD(S)-Congress direct contests.

At least 754 of the cumulative 896 seats up for grabs in the last four assembly elections — 2004, 2008, 2013 and 2018 — witnessed a direct contest between the three parties. The margin of victory was less than 5,000 votes in 175 or nearly a fourth of all 754 seats.

Of these 754 seats, the BJP has a strike rate of 55 per cent when in a direct contest with the JD(S). It is also important to note that the two parties were locked in a direct contest only in 10 per cent of the 754 seats.


Also Read: How 30 seats where margin of victory was less than 5,000 in 2018 could decide fate of Karnataka polls


BJP vs Congress bipolar contests

The 2018 Karnataka assembly election witnessed a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP in 142 seats. While Congress candidates were the runners-up in 85 of the 104 seats the BJP won that year, BJP candidates were the runners-up in 57 of the 78 seats in which the Congress emerged victorious.

Of these 142 seats, the margin of victory was less than 5,000 votes in 20 seats, including 15 that were bagged by the Congress.

Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist and pro vice-chancellor of Bengaluru’s Jain University,  told ThePrint that this trend of direct contests in Karnataka between the Congress and the BJP began in 2004 when the JD(S) was pushed to the third position in the assembly polls held that year. 

“From 1999 onwards, the JD(S) has conceded the principal race to the Congress and the BJP,” Shastri added.

In 2004, there was a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP in 105 seats. This number was 144 in 2008 and 109 (BJP + KJP) in 2013.

Illustration: Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint
Illustration: Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint

In 2013, the BJP suffered a massive blow owing to B.S. Yediyurappa’s decision to part ways with it and float his own party, the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP). While the KJP was able to win only six of the 204 seats it contested that year, its candidates emerged as the runners-up in 35 seats.

The BJP and the Congress were in a direct fight in 77 seats that year, while the KJP and the Congress were in a direct fight in 32 seats, totalling 109.

It is in this context that direct contests between the two national parties take centre stage in Karnataka’s politics. An analysis by ThePrint shows that seats where it is in a direct contest with the Congress make up a significant portion of the BJP’s overall tally in Karnataka assembly polls.

In three of the last four assembly elections, more than 80 per cent of the seats contributing to the BJP’s tally were seats in which it was locked in a direct contest with the Congress. The only exception was 2013 when the number of such seats dropped to 67 per cent and the Congress stormed to power with a tally of 122 seats — one short of the majority mark.

Meanwhile, 75 per cent of the seats in the Congress’s kitty in 2018 were seats in which it was in a direct contest with the BJP. This number was 65 per cent in the 2013, 2008 and 2004 assembly elections.

Illustration: Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint
Illustration: Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint

When the BJP emerged as the single-largest party in 2004, 2008 and 2018, the party had a strike rate of 60 per cent in direct contests with the Congress. The 2013 assembly polls were the only exception when the Congress, which emerged as the single largest party, had a strike rate of 65 per cent in seats where it was in a direct contest with the BJP.

“The number of seats in which JD(S) is number two is very minimal. Because the JD(S) is in the frame in a very small number of seats, the principal contest is invariably between the Congress and the BJP. So what you say is true of the BJP, to a large extent, will be for the Congress also,” said Shastri. 

BJP vs JD(S) bipolar contests

In 2018, the BJP and the JD(S) were head-to-head in 26 seats — this number was lower in 2013, 2008 and 2004. Of the 26 seats, the BJP was victorious and the JD(S) the runner-up in 17 (65 per cent) seats, while the JD(S) was the winner and the BJP the runner-up in nine (35 per cent).

Illustration: Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint
Illustration: Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint

The BJP, having a strong presence in northern and central Karnataka, has been trying to make inroads into the state’s southern districts — considered a JD(S) stronghold. Union home minister Amit Shah kicked off the party’s campaign in southern Karnataka’s Mandya on 30 December last year.

Of the 46 seats in Vokkaliga-dominated southern Karnataka, the JD(S) won 25 and the BJP 11 — up from three in 2013 — in the 2018 elections. 

An analysis of election data by ThePrint also shows that the BJP has bettered its strike rate against its former ally, the JD(S), over the last four assembly elections — from 31.25 per cent in 2004 to 65 per cent in 2018.

For the JD(S), seats in which it was in a direct contest with the BJP made up 25 per cent of its tally in 2018, compared to the BJP’s 16 per cent.

Experts believe the H.D. Deve Gowda-led party’s main strength lies in what is referred to as southern Karnataka’s old Mysore region. Over the last 20 years, the vote share of the JD(S) has remained consistent at 19-21 per cent.

This, taken into consideration along with the BJP’s presence in northern and coastal Karnataka, is among the reasons the ruling party and the JD(S) are face-to-face in fewer seats compared to direct Congress-BJP contests.

Congress vs JD(S) direct contests

The Congress and the JD(S) had direct contests in 43 seats in the 2018 Karnataka assembly elections. They then entered into a post-poll alliance to stop the BJP from coming to power, with H.D. Kumaraswamy as the CM.

In that election, the JD(S) won 25 seats in which its candidates were pitted in a direct contest against the Congress — amounting to a strike rate of 60 per cent.

As is the case in seats in which the BJP and the Congress are locked in a direct contest, the JD(S) ends up winning two-thirds (65-72 per cent) of all seats in which it is in a direct contest with the Congress. For the Congress, this number is less than one-third (27-35 per cent).

However, the strike rate of the two parties when in a direct contest, has not been consistent. In 2008 and 2013, the Congress’s strike rate against JD(S) was 60 per cent — the same as the strike rate of the JD(S) against the Congress in the 2004 and 2018 assembly elections.

“What has happened because of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is that the BJP has made inroads in old Mysore, basically into territories of the Janata Dal (S). Congress wasn’t as affected by it as the Janata Dal was,” says Shastri.

“As a result, this time, I don’t think you will have an assembly where no party has a majority. I think the voter is very clear that an assembly with no party with a majority leads to political instability. I would not be surprised if the voter makes a decisive choice in favour of one of the two key players.”

(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)


Also Read: ‘Left, right, touchables, others’ — how divisions among SCs are impacting Karnataka politics


 

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