Goa: Foreign ministers from the eight member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) arrived in Goa Thursday to attend its Council of Foreign Ministers’ (CFM) meet on 5 May.
China’s Qin Gang, Russia’s Sergey Lavrov and Pakistan’s Bilawal Bhutto Zardari are among the leaders attending the meeting. Bhutto Zardari’s visit marks the first time since 2011 that a Pakistani Foreign Minister has come to India.
Among the issues expected to dominate discussions are the Russia-Ukraine war, counter-terrorism concerns, especially in Afghanistan, reforming the SCO itself, and the possibility of using national currencies to settle trade payments.
India holds the one-year SCO presidency at a time when its relations with China — a foundational member of the organisation — are at a historical low owing to the border standoff in Ladakh and Beijing’s aggression with respect to Arunachal Pradesh.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is expected to “stoke” the issue of Kashmir in the context of counter-terrorism at the upcoming meeting, say analysts.
Also, New Delhi finds itself in a unique position on the world stage, having not condemned Russia amid the Ukraine war and ramping up energy imports from Moscow, while also actively participating in the Quad — a US-led body that has been criticised by Russia.
The SCO was once viewed as an “eastern counterbalance” to NATO.
Asked how India stands to benefit from the SCO despite the “perceived contradictions” of its presidency, analysts say New Delhi is using the opportunity to enhance its geostrategic position on the world stage, just as it has been doing with its G20 presidency.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar Thursday held bilateral meetings with Lavrov, Qin and SCO Secretary General Zhang Ming, a seasoned diplomat who has served as China’s ambassador to the European Union (EU) as well as deputy director-general of the Chinese foreign ministry.
It is still unclear whether Jaishankar will hold a meeting with his Pakistani counterpart on the sidelines of the event.
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SCO history
The SCO had roots in the Shanghai Five, a regional grouping formed in 1996 to resolve boundary disputes between China and former Soviet Republics. It was officially established in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as an inter-governmental organisation aimed to foster security and economic cooperation in the Eurasian region.
India and Pakistan became permanent members in 2017.
The SCO also has three “observer” states — Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia — and six “dialogue partners”, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Turkey.
Egypt, Qatar, Maldives, Bahrain, Myanmar, UAE and Kuwait have also expressed interest in joining the SCO.
Iran — a country facing numerous Western sanctions that has begun mending ties with Middle Eastern rival Saudi Arabia — is close to becoming a permanent member of the SCO, having signed a memorandum of obligation at the SCO Summit in Samarkand in September 2022.
Iran’s permanent membership as well as that of Russia’s close ally Belarus is expected to be discussed at the CFM meet in Goa.
Iran’s ascension as a permanent member of SCO will help it overcome years of isolation on the international stage, analysts say.
In 2005, at the SCO summit in Kazakhstan’s Astana, Iran, India and Pakistan received observer status.
In 2017, while India and Pakistan became permanent members, Iran didn’t. Iran, therefore, has had one of the longest waits in SCO to go from observer status to permanent membership.
India’s interests
India’s decision to join the SCO as a permanent member in 2017 was based on concerns about the evolving security situation in Afghanistan, connectivity with the Eurasian region, counter-terrorism, anti-narcotics campaigns, and energy cooperation, notes a report by think tank Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) published in 2016.
“SCO, as a platform for discussion, can elevate trust and cooperation between India and the other SCO members. Thus, this regional organisation can help serve India’s geostrategic, security and economic interests in the Eurasian region better,” noted the report.
Former ambassador Gautam Mukhopadhaya told ThePrint that “India will use the SCO presidency to enhance its own ‘regional and global’ status on the world stage and not be excluded from Central Asia as Pakistan would like to see”.
The discussion on Afghanistan, he said, will be a key way for India to re-emphasise its role as a key player in the region.
“Pakistan has long tried to downplay India’s stake in Afghanistan, almost to suggest that Kabul’s eastward gaze needn’t go beyond Pakistan. But that’s going to be difficult because as SCO president, India will consolidate its position as a key player in the region,” he said.
In March, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and his counterparts from SCO member states met in New Delhi to discuss the rise in terrorism and drug production in Afghanistan.
A month prior to that, Afghanistan’s Ambassador to India Farid Mamundzay had, in an interview to ThePrint, urged India, China and Russia to “get on the same page” with regard to Afghanistan.
Counter-terrorism, Kashmir likely focus
The CFM meet in Goa will first and foremost lay the stage for the SCO Leaders’ Summit scheduled to take place in New Delhi on 3-4 July. It is expected that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend the summit, marking their first visit to India since the Ukraine war.
In terms of issues, counter-terrorism is likely to be high up on the agenda.
Pakistan Foreign Minister Bhutto Zardari is expected to raise the issue of Kashmir and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan — a banned terrorist outfit — which has become a major strategic challenge for Islamabad ever since the 2021 Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.
“This (SCO) is one of the few international platforms where Pakistan can talk up issues like Kashmir,” Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at Delhi-based think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF), told ThePrint.
Former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal explained the stakes behind his visit to Goa.
“If Bhutto had opted out [of the CFM meet], it would have sent a message that Pakistan was being guided purely by its bilateral issues and ignoring the SCO Charter,” he told ThePrint.
If the Chinese foreign minister is able to come despite a border standoff and Bhutto doesn’t despite a ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC), it would have looked “anomalous”, Sibal explained.
India is also expected to call for stronger collaboration against terrorism in the region, no safe havens for terrorists, accountability of countries that shelter terrorist organisations, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and non-interference in the internal affairs of countries.
There are also expectations of “West bashing” from Russia and China, if the SCO Defence Ministers’ Meeting held in New Delhi last week was any indication.
“Russia and China will likely indulge in some West-bashing at the CFM meet especially after Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the Kremlin with drones,” Mukhopadhaya told ThePrint.
On Wednesday, Russia accused Ukraine of an attempted assassination on Putin in a drone attack on the Kremlin citadel in Moscow. Ukraine has denied the claim.
(Edited by Anumeha Saxena)
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