New Delhi: In the last decade, China spent almost two billion dollars in overseas aid to nine countries, signalling an effort to check the countries from maintaining official diplomatic relations with Taiwan (Republic of China). These nine countries shifted their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) between 2016 and 2023.
China gave roughly $1.89 billion in financial aid to Burkina Faso, Panama, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Solomon Islands, Kiribati, São Tomé and Príncipe, and the Dominican Republic, according to data published by AidData, a research lab at the College of William and Mary in the US.
“For Beijing, the aid to these countries is a political decision. For this, no cost is too high. It is a part of their insistence that there is only one China and that Taiwan is a part of China,” Jabin Thomas Jacob, an associate professor at the international relations and governance studies department at the Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence, told ThePrint.
“Taiwan has also tried economic inducements to keep these countries in their corner. Taiwan is smart enough to realise that in this diplomatic football, they are not going to win,” Jacob added.
In January 2024, Nauru, a Pacific island nation, severed ties with Taiwan, too, and recognised Beijing as the “sole legal government” representing China. In the past, Nauru has sought aid from Taipei and Beijing and accordingly switched recognition between the two.
Countries have flip-flopped between recognising Taiwan and the PRC, depending on whoever offers the largest cheque. Burkina Faso, for example, cut ties with Taipei in 1973 before resuming ties with the country in 1994. In 2018, Burkina Faso severed ties with Taipei again.
Beijing paid Ouagadougou (capital of Burkina Faso) $447 million between 2018 and 2021, according to AidData. Beijing and Ouagadougou have signed loans worth $242 million, and China has committed to grants worth $146 million in the four years between 2018 and 2021, reported AidData. Following two coup d’etats in 2022, Ouagadougou has also reportedly looked to Beijing for military weaponry.
A similar story has unfurled across the countries that have switched their recognition to Beijing from Taipei.
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Changing paradigm for Taiwanese diplomacy
Jacob said the loss of diplomatic recognition across the globe might look bad for the regime in Taipei but offers the country an opportunity to deepen economic ties with certain large economies that could offer it political protection vis-a-vis Beijing.
“The Taiwanese probably have an opportunity here. Instead of expanding their efforts to maintain these global relationships with geographically distant countries, it could now focus on deepening ties with large economies such as India, the US, and the European Union,” Jacob told ThePrint.
Taipei establishing an economic presence in foreign countries through its companies could translate into political benefits, Jacob said.
Aravind Yelery, an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), also shared a similar view that Taipei now has a space to deepen existing ties with larger economies and reap certain benefits.
For India, Taiwan is a necessary partner for its aspirations in Southeast Asia, he added.
“Taiwan has learned to manoeuvre the international system even if it does not have de jure recognition from countries. With India focusing on growing its manufacturing of high-technology equipment, Taipei finds itself in a sweet spot to offer New Delhi the necessary expertise to aid in this process,” said Yelery to ThePrint.
Despite these opportunities for Taiwan, the global perception of countries cutting ties with Taipei and building ties with Beijing does not solely affect its reputation but also that of the US. The US formally recognised the PRC in 1979 but has done its best to prevent other countries from switching ties from Taipei to Beijing.
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US & China jockey for global power through Taiwan
Xiomara Castro came to power in Honduras in 2022, with the promise of severing ties with Taiwan. Honduras and Taiwan first established ties in 1941. It remained in place for 82 years till March 2023, when Honduras established relations with China, according to a Reuters report.
The Biden administration, reportedly, lobbied hard for Honduras to keep its ties with Taiwan, but it was a futile attempt. According to Taiwan, Tegucigalpa (capital of Honduras) asked for $2.5 billion in aid to retain ties, a sum Taipei was unwilling to part with.
Sriparna Pathak, an associate professor of Chinese studies at O.P. Jindal Global University, told ThePrint that every time a country switches diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC, it is not just a diplomatic loss for Taipei but also the US.
“The reputation of the US is maligned, especially in the Pacific countries, where China has gained influence through its cheque-book diplomacy,” said Pathak to ThePrint.
Pathak added, “The US seems to have no plan for Taiwan. Taiwan has realised that it needs to diversify its markets as it cannot rely on China anymore. Taipei is worried about the developments — from its receding diplomatic footprint to whether there will be support from the US in the long-term.”
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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