New Delhi: Continuation of the disengagement process between the Indian and Chinese troops so far is a “positive sign of easing tensions”, even though the incident has left a “great negative impact” on bilateral ties, experts on China and international affairs have told ThePrint.
The experts don’t see fresh tensions emerging in the near future, and say both New Delhi and Beijing should now look for a “long-term solution” to avoid such incidents in the future, as global geopolitics is rapidly changing, impacting Asia’s relationship with the world.
“It must be acknowledged that the confrontation in 2020 has had a great negative impact on bilateral relations and needs time to heal and recover in the near term. Therefore, it is foreseeable that China-India relations will stay at a comparatively low level in the year 2021. Past experience guides the future. We should not only learn lessons from the conflicts but also offer some deep reflections on it,” Qian Feng, director of the research department at National Strategy Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, told ThePrint.
Although China has sought to blame India ever since the stand-off at the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh began in May 2020, India made it clear that it was China who acted as the aggressor, while reiterating its stance that all aspects of the bilateral relationship can’t be normal till there is peace and tranquillity in the border areas.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had stated last year on several occasions that the India-China ties have got “significantly damaged” due to the stand-off, and that “maintaining peace and tranquillity along the LAC is the basis for the rest of the relationship to progress”.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also repeatedly stated since the skirmish began that peace and security in the region demands a “climate of trust, non-aggression, peaceful resolution of differences and respect for international rules”.
Foreign Secretary Harsh V. Shringla, who referred to the LAC tensions as the most serious since 1962 India-China War, had categorically stated that it cannot be business as usual with China.
Also read: India, China agree to ‘further disengagement’ at Ladakh after 16-hour Corps Commander talks
Long-term coexistence
Qian said both sides reaching a consensus on simultaneous withdrawal and agreeing to the disengagement process is a “positive sign of easing tensions”.
“Long-term coexistence is their historical fate as well as a realistic mission for both countries. Therefore, from the viewpoint of history and civilisation, and from the perspective of being responsible to their people, China and India should establish a series of strategic mutual trust building mechanisms, including a strategic dialogue mechanism, a cultural exchange mechanism and a communication and mutual learning mechanism on development models,” stressed Qian.
According to Qian, the worst outcome from this stand-off was the erosion of mutual trust at the people-to-people level, and the negative commentary on social media reaching a “decades-low point”.
James Crabtree, associate professor of practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, said: “Ties between India and China have been deeply damaged by this episode, shifting India much closer to the firmly anti-Chinese stance held by the US. The question now is whether Beijing will seek to correct its mistake, and try to take steps gradually to mend fences with New Delhi, attempting the kind of rapprochement that resulted in the Modi-Xi Wuhan Summit in 2018.”
Another China scholar, Wenshan Jia, professor of communication and global studies at Chapman University, USA, said it was his personal opinion that “both sides should have a long-term view in maintaining at least a peaceful and working relationship of coexistence so that both governments will focus on enhancing their people’s livelihoods”.
Jia said: “Both countries, as civilisation-states, had a long tradition of peaceful cultural exchanges in pre-modern times. This tradition could be revived to enhance a broader and in-depth understanding between the two peoples in areas such as media, arts and culture, education and so on.”
He added: “While both countries have global aspirations for prestige and influence, to cultivate a healthy relationship between the two and create a stable environment for the full bloom of the Asian century should be a high priority for both India and China… The two governments and people on both sides have lots of wisdom and knowledge to avoid unnecessary big power rivalry like European powers in the 18th and 19th centuries and build a mutually constructive and mutually beneficial relationship.”
Also read: India-China disengagement process in eastern Ladakh complete, says Rajnath Singh
‘Takes two to tango’
In 2018, India and China began the process of holding so-called ‘informal summits’. There have been two rounds of informal summits so far, the first in Wuhan in 2018 and the second in Mamallapuram near Chennai in 2019.
Since the tensions at the LAC began last year, India and China have held regular talks at the military as well as diplomatic levels, and the countries’ foreign and defence ministers have also maintained a steady channel of communication.
Yun Sun, senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center, said: “The disengagement is per the agreement reached in late January about de-escalation. In my view, it takes two to tango, so both sides must feel that disengagement at this time is in their best interests. The Chinese side did not make a major concession in the decision. Neither did India, as I understand.”
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, while Defence Minister Rajnath Singh met his counterpart Wei Fenghe in person in Moscow during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s Foreign and Defence Ministers’ meeting held in September 2020.
Earlier this month, as the disengagement plan was announced, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said the disengagement at Pangong Tso happened after “sustained negotiations”.
The countries will now be focusing on disengaging the troops from other friction areas such as the Depsang Plains, Gogra Post, Hot Springs and Demchok.
This is expected to be followed up by a round of talks at the diplomatic level under the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Border Affairs (WMCC), to be held this week.
Also read: Northern Army commander reveals how China was forced to negotiate Ladakh disengagement
it is a sad commentary that both China and Pakistan have exhibited their hard stance. Pakistan, since its inception has divergent views on India and has been showcasing the same openly and this time China has gone one step up by its transgression in LAC in Ladakh . China’s action in withdrawing troops in one of the spots does not mean it cannot come back to the original position since it has amassed its troops not so far with all the weapons including missiles. What China had done in 1962 should never be forgotten. It can repeat anything notwithstanding the fact that at that time we were not ready enough to give a bloody nose but this time we are fully prepared for giving them more than what we shall be receiving. As far as Pakistan is concerned though its economy is sliding southwards yet it has not learnt its lessons fully. It continue fomenting trouble for India by sending armed terrorists by any means it can – by on the ground or through tunnels which it has dug up. Be that as it may, the best course is to be prepared for any eventuality. Offensive is the best defence this time over.
Geography does not allow for a divorce. With either China or Pakistan. So we have to find ways to manage, contain our very real differences, not allow deterioration that leads to war. We have come closer to that unthinkable contingency, with Pulwama and Ladakh, than many would have thought possible. Notwithstanding all the talk of a two front war. For what it may be worth, a milder media narrative should be pursued. At no stage should the government find itself hostage to public mood and sentiment.
To advocate for ‘Just Peace’ makes sense when you are strong , powerful and united; otherwise the call is pathetic and laughable.
High sounding moral principals are usually a cover for ‘naked raw power’ by those who have it. Overlooking ‘REALPOLITIK’ and pretending to be ‘morally superior’ on a weak wicket, fools no one except the fools who indulge in such exercise!
Both India and China, with disputed boundaries, are ambitious to be as global power. Both are with huge population, resources and capacity to sustain independently. However, China’s track record vis a vis India and rest of the world at political as well as economic front is very disgusting and unlawful. China’s friendship with Pakistan and as parasite in India’s every positive attempt, politically as well as economically, cannot be ignored.
What came out from those many decade effort of mutual trust building Do china have any trust in any trust building. Decades old mutual arrangement understanding and agreement ripped apart by china in few days in may 20. All these saying thinking prognosis having no substantial relevance. The behaviour of china is all about power centric. If you have capablity to deter them they will . Otherwise understanding and agreement is fragile
Too late for next five years. The price China has to pay in the future is to vacate Akas Chin. This they would not do hence economic ties will suffer.