New Delhi: Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe arrives in Delhi for a two-day visit Thursday to discuss bilateral and regional issues with Prime Minister Modi. This is his first visit to India since he became president after a historic and dramatic popular uprising in the island nation last year, which toppled former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who was accused of corruption, among other issues.
The people of Sri Lanka rose up against the Rajapaksa regime after months of economic and political turmoil in the country. The protests, which were sparked by fuel shortages, power cuts, and rising prices, turned into a mass movement demanding justice, accountability, and Rajapaksa’s resignation.
The widespread protests eventually overthrew the Rajapaksa government after months of economic and political chaos. Wickremesinghe, who was the leader of the opposition at the time, was appointed Prime Minister after the sitting PM Mahinda Rajapaksa, resigned in May 2022. Wickremesinghe was elected President on 20 July last year.
But, while Wickremesinghe has largely been credited with bringing stability to Sri Lanka, things are still far from normal in the island nation.
“One year later, there are no fuel queues [for fuel] nor [power] blackouts, and credit for this is given to President Wickremesinghe. But in reality, we need to realise that this is basically the product of listening to reasonable economists, which happened by the second week of April 2022, and not really any ‘magic sauce’ by Wickremesinghe,” political analyst Dinidu de Alwis told ThePrint.
The country still has more than $80 billion of both foreign and domestic debt. Essentials are available, but exorbitantly priced — almost half of all Sri Lankan families reportedly spend 70 per cent of their income on food alone.
Over 300,000 people, including IT professionals and doctors, reportedly migrated from the country last year. Meanwhile, the World Bank projects poverty to remain above 25 percent in the next few years.
According to some Sri Lankan parliamentarians, Wickremesinghe’s India visit is considered long overdue.
He is also expected to meet Gautam Adani, Chairman of the Adani Group, during his visit.
Usually, given the close relationship between India and Sri Lanka, a newly-elected head of state visits India within weeks. The previous president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, had visited New Delhi within a month after he took charge in November 2019.
This time, the visit is framed by anxieties over Sri Lanka’s other close relationship, with China. China is reportedly Sri Lanka’s biggest bilateral creditor, having lent the country over $7 billion. India extended a $1 billion credit line by a year in May 2023, part of a total of $4 billion in emergency assistance provided to Sri Lanka in 2022 that was scheduled to end in March 2023.
The Sri Lankan president is expected to stress the importance of India’s political and financial support in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, sources in the know told ThePrint.
The other issue on the table is the 13th Amendment — signed in 1987 which mandated the setting up of provincial councils to devolve power from Colombo — and its delayed implementation.
“We are hoping that Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi will reiterate the importance of the 13th Amendment to President Wickremesinghe,” Shanakiyan Rasamanickam, a politician part of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the main political party representing the Tamils in Sri Lanka, told ThePrint.
According to former diplomat and politician, Dayan Jayatilleka, “Sri Lanka is in a lull between two storms”.
“The first storm was in 2022 against the wildly irrational economics of an elected President. The second will be against the ruthlessly harsh economics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) austerity imposed by an unelected President,” Jayatilleka told ThePrint.
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Is the economic crisis over?
In short, no — the economic crisis hasn’t yet passed, according to experts.
While the enduring symbols of last year’s protests don’t exist anymore — long queues for fuel, 13-hour power cuts, and empty streets — the country is reeling under massive debt.
Wickremesinghe’s government secured a loan of $2.9 billion from the IMF in March. The deal, which took nearly a year to make, aims to restore “macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability”, ensure financial stability, and scale up structural reforms. The IMF will also be conducting a “governance diagnostic exercise” — its first in South Asia.
According to reports, income tax has been hiked in the country, while subsidies have been removed. A proposition to privatise state-owned enterprises, like Sri Lankan Airlines and Sri Lankan Insurance Corporation, is also reportedly on the table. Sri Lanka’s cabinet on 1 July also approved a domestic debt restructuring proposal, which drew ire from the opposition and from the public for severely cutting pensions.
The impact of this will be borne by the Sri Lankan people, as domestic borrowing accounts for half the country’s total debt. Further, protests against the proposals broke out in Colombo in early July.
However, state minister of finance, Shehan Semasinghe, reportedly told the Sri Lankan Parliament that “This debt restructuring plan is essential for Sri Lanka to meet the target set by the IMF agreement to reduce debt from the current 128 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] to 95 per cent of GDP by 2022”.
According to De Alwis, Wickremesinghe inherited a strong presidency with very little oversight or accountability, and so should have been able to cut costs and privatise at a larger scale. “That would have been the means to prevent a recurrence through long-term financial stability, but on that he hasn’t done anything meaningful,” he added.
Is the political situation stable?
A political veteran with a decades-long career, Wickremesinghe has held the prime ministerial post six times. However, he was not as popular with the Sri Lankan public before last year’s uprising — his party, the United National Party (UNP), didn’t win a single constituency in the 2020 election.
The UNP secured a single seat through the national list — a system that allocates additional seats for accumulative votes — and Wickremesinghe took it. He is, therefore, technically unelected to Parliament and will serve the rest of Gotabaya’s presidential term until November 2024.
Wickremesinghe has been modelling himself as an economic leader, using his vast political experience to help the country weather the crisis. The main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), has accused him of being a Rajapaksa proxy, often referring to him as Ranil Rajapaksa.
On Tuesday, the Sri Lankan president reportedly retorted, “I am Ranil Wickremesinghe, not Ranil Rajapaksa!”
While the anti-government protests aren’t happening at the same scale, smaller protests have been taking place against various policies and inactions. The Sri Lankan authorities have also been reportedly using force — tear gas, water cannons — to suppress protests.
The 13th Amendment
The 13th Amendment was brought about following the 1987 Indo-Sri Lankan Peace Accord, and mandated the setting up of provincial councils to devolve power from Colombo. The aim was to decentralise the country’s governance system and give the Tamil population — especially in the north and east of the country — more political autonomy. The Amendment also made Tamil a national language, along with Sinhala.
Calling the amendment an already watered-down version of the original demands, Rasamanickam said that he hopes the longstanding cultural and economic ties between southern India and Sri Lanka’s north and east would benefit from its enactment. He added that the demand for devolution is decades-old and has never been fully implemented.
According to reports, the TNA “categorically rejected” Wickremesinghe’s proposal for development and power devolution without police powers on 18 July, branding it “another hollow promise.”
A group of Sri Lankan Tamil political and religious leaders, educationists, and professionals have also reportedly written to Modi, urging him to “persuade” Wickremesinghe to call for provincial council elections as soon as possible.
“The crucial question that will or certainly should arise during President Wickremesinghe’s visit to Delhi, is whether a firm, verifiable commitment can be secured from him for an early date for elections to the Provincial Councils rendered comatose by him,” said Jayatilleka.
(Edited by Richa Mishra)
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