New Delhi: Most Indians are interested in defence news, partly because of the kind of neighbourhood we live in. So if you’ve been following the defence headlines, particularly since Operation Sindoor, it would seem like every other day, the Cabinet, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) of the Ministry of Defence meets, and approves purchases. It looks like India is on a buying spree.
What does approval for buying mean? For one, that it’s not bought today. Approved means you can start negotiating or looking for what is needed.
This is acceptance of necessity (AON); now figure out how to get it.
Also, it does not necessarily mean that these are all imports.
Buy the way: That said, here’s some basic data. First, if you start counting post Operation Sindoor, which was already over a month into the new financial year, 55 proposals, or more than 55 by now, have been cleared by the DAC, adding up to, by our calculation, some Rs 9.28 lakh crore. That is for the financial year that ended on 31 March.
After that, one more DAC has taken place, which has again given approvals worth Rs 52,000 crore. Add it all up, and it comes to Rs 9.8 lakh crore. Let’s go with a round figure of Rs 10 lakh crore, that’s Rs 10 trillion. At this point, that’s about $119 billion, a lot of money.
Again, for us to understand the larger figure, this is not the kind of stuff that India can buy in a year, or few; these acquisitions have a long tail.
If you look at this year’s budget, the element available for capital expenditure this year for Army, Navy, Air Force is Rs 2.19 lakh crore or Rs 2.19 trillion, which comes to about $23 billion. All of that will not be spent because there are ongoing acquisitions as well.
Shadow of Sindoor: The first DAC meet after Operation Sindoor was on 3 July 2025. The approvals then were Rs 1,05,000 crore, mainly for armoured recovery vehicles, electronic warfare systems, integrated common inventory management system for all three services, and surface-to-air missiles, some of which were immediate replenishment for those fired during Operation Sindoor, like the S-400.
There were also anti-mine vessels. The Navy has struggled for minesweepers for a very long time. The next DAC meet was on 5 August, which cleared proposals worth Rs 67,000 crore for a panoply of systems, including mountain radars, point defence missile systems for Navy, drones, and sustenance for C-130Js, the workhorses of the Indian Air Force (IAF). There was also the annual maintenance contract for the S-400 air defence system.
On 23 October, another DAC meet took place, clearing proposals worth Rs 79,000 crore. These included support systems for Army, Navy and Air Force in all areas. Importantly also, and interestingly, 30 mm naval surface guns, advanced lightweight torpedoes, etc. And then on 26 December, a special DAC meeting that did not clear any specific projects but extended the emergency procurement powers of the armed forces until 15 January 2026 else they would have lapsed.
Meet-o-matic: Within three days, one more took place on 29 December and that again cleared proposals worth Rs 79,000 crore. These included loiter ammunition systems for artillery regiments, long-range guided rocket ammunition for the Pinaka system, Astra Mk-2 missiles, more SPICE 1000 long-range guidance kits for the IAF.
Then on 12 February, the big one, approving Rs 3.6 lakh crore. That included the approval for 114 Rafale fighters, an acceptance of necessity.
There were a bunch of others. For me, one of the interesting things was something that we’ve spoken about in a standalone Cut The Clutter in the past.
That is AS-HAPS, or Airship-Based High-Altitude Pseudo-Satellites. These are fixed-wing unmanned aircraft that fly at very high altitudes, at the outer limits of the atmosphere, and can be airborne for a long time because they run on solar power in the day and rechargeable batteries when the sun is not out. They can be airborne for a very long time. They are not quite satellites but sub-satellites, and quite useful to that extent. The important thing is there are Indian companies working on making this.
This big one also included in-principle approval for six more P8Is for the Indian Navy. The Navy likes the P8I, a multi-purpose aircraft that is a force multiplier, and wants more because the current ones are being used all the time.
Big moves: The next meet on 27 March included approvals of Rs 2.38 lakh crore. At this point, it is worth remembering that everything will change in value as we go ahead, and the more the delay, the more expensive these systems will become.
This meet also included more medium transport aircraft. The IAF’s An-32s have to be replaced; then there’s fresh batteries of the S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile system. These are fresh batteries because the IAF had ordered five earlier. The fourth is now forming up. The fifth will be on the way later this year, and five more are to be ordered for which approval was given.
Stage of acceptance: With this DAC, the approvals add up to $9.8 trillion for the last financial year, post-Operation Sindoor. In this financial year, one DAC meet has taken place. That was on 3 July, and approvals are for about Rs 52,000 crore, the most conservative or most underwhelming compared to the post-Operation Sindoor trend. In this case, again the emphasis seems to be on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVS), electronic warfare systems, anti-UAV systems, man-portable anti-tank guided missiles, the MPATGM, a DRDO system.
Some 2,300 of these missiles will be procured with a hundred launchers and five simulators for about Rs 2,600 crore. And there are multiple other missiles, medium range surface-to-air missiles and very short range air defence systems which are now essential to take care of any drones or missiles that get through other layers of air defence.
A lot of this will be made in India. Some will be fully Indian-made and -designed, some done in collaboration, and some will also come straight from overseas. For example, the first squadron plus of Rafales, whenever the deal is done, will probably come in flyaway condition. I think that’s about 18 to begin with, and that’s worth a lot. So this process is now starting. Acceptance of Necessity (AON) is the first step.
The Government of India has not written a blank cheque; all they’ve said is we accept that you need this. Now you figure out where to get it, how to get it, the best price; we’ll get involved in price negotiations, and money will be made available as and when anything comes in. Quite a bit of this will be for what is imported on a government-to-government basis.
Long tail: That seems to be the trend right now. Now to understand what happens now post-AON, the complicated process that leads finally to a system entering service.
One, what’s the process now? Second, how much of this will be imported and how much made at home, and what are the projects already on the way? Also, is there a larger, holistic vision behind this, or is it just like a parent distributing goodies to three children.
It’s also important to understand what happens before the DAC meet. The services first identify the capability gap that they’re looking to fill, and then they start speaking to multiple companies, issuing a formal Request For Information (RFI) to understand what is available in the market.
Then it goes through various levels of scrutiny within the defence ministry to comes under the Defence Procurement Board, which is the place where a more scrutiny happens, and then it comes to the DAC. This process can take anywhere from two years to much longer. For example, this one that was cleared for the Rafale fighter jets first appeared in the DAC in 2017. It was sent back because then defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman wanted it to be an open tender both for single-engine as well as twin-engine versions; the IAF had moved for a single-engine. Ten years passed before it got back.
Once the DAC gives the AON—the first formal step for procurement of any military equipment—the services start drafting an RFP, or request for proposal, or what most call a tender.
The RFP issued is followed by bid submission from relevant companies. Even before the bid submission, meetings are held between companies and the services, and that also takes time. Then, once the bids are submitted, the first thing is technical evaluation of the bids. Once technical evaluation is done come the trials, and these can go on for months. For example, the Army has been trying to procure a sniper rifle since 2019; the trials have still not been completed.
It’s complicated: Of course, there are multiple issues with the trials: a company may pass one particular round but fail the next one, or some other company which may have got lower marks in the first round gets cleared in the second round.
But you got to make up your mind at some point. Once the field evaluation trials are done comes the staff evaluation, and then the commercial bid opening. We have this system of rating bidders, which and then is when the contract negotiation committee comes in. In some cases, there is also a price negotiating committee. Then, depending on the value or other specification of the final contract, it goes for subsequent clearance to the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). It is then that the contract is finally signed, and the manufacturer starts making the system.
These weapon systems are not available off the shelf; there’s no Amazon of armaments. Usually in all these commercial contracts, the deliveries vary from equipment to equipment but delivery of bigger equipment, for example an S400 system or a fighter jet or transport aircraft, starts years after signing the contract.
When we say that we are going to buy a fighter and 18 of them are going to come in flyway condition, it doesn’t mean that that the IAF visits the factory and just pick up the aircraft and come back, because Dassault has its order book full for the next five-six years.
An AON is the first step, and it can be a very long one. For example, in July 2025 approval was given for mine countermeasure vessels, and now the whole process will start for the first time. These minesweepers were given an AON was way back in 2005. I was thinking about this when the question of clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz came up, and it could have been a multinational effort. If there was one, what would India send to help? We don’t have a minesweeper now.
So one should never believe that AON means instant procurement; it’s a long drawn process.
The DAC meet on 3 July last year was the first one after Operation Sindoor. The most important issue then was surface-to-air missiles. India always knew that the S400 is an important air defence system and that’s the reason we bought this way back in 2018. It’s expensive to buy and expensive to fire. AON approval has been given, but the contract has not been signed for additional missiles.
Then there were the mine countermeasure vessels. The only impact of Operation Sindoor at this meet was the need for additional surface-to-air missiles; the whole process was sped up. The rest of the proposals cleared were the ones which were already under work.
Orbital velocity: Now we come to the next one, 5 August. That is when AON was cleared for about Rs 67,000 crore, and again mostly for systems that were already in the works. One thing that would probably stand out is the medium- and high-altitude long-endurance remotely piloted aircraft, MALES and HALES, although these too were already in the works.
Then of course, the maintenance contract of the S400 air defence missile systems as well as the sustenance package for the C-17s and C-130Js. Maintenance and sustenance contracts becoming part of the DAC meet is strange—they should happen as a matter of routine—but that’s the way the Indian system works.
Late defence minister George Fernandes used to say that this system in defence ministry is very good at sending files into orbit where they keep orbiting, and that’s the reason he sent a couple of civilian officers to Siachen because he was irritated that the acquisition of snow scooters had been delayed for a very long time.
But there are so many rules within rules and clauses and sub clauses that it becomes really frustrating; there is no price to pay for stopping a file or sending one into orbit but if you clear something, then maybe five years into your retirement the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) can come knocking at your door, and that is the worry that everybody carries.
That is also why there’s buzz on a new defence procurement procedure. The new acquisition procedure was supposed to come out in October last year, that was DAP 2025. When it didn’t come out in October, the joke was that whether it would still be called DAP 2025 or DAP 2026, and then somebody said it would still be known as DAP 2025 because it’s going to come in that fiscal year. We are now well into the new fiscal and it is still under consideration. The new DAP should be ready in about a month
The next meet was on 23 October 2025, and approvals worth Rs 79,000 crore were given. If you look at the items on AON list, there are no big ticket ones, none qualifying for the post Sindoor effect. These were regular items which came up for AONs over a period of time, went through the system, finally came up, and have now been accorded approval.
Some Operation Sindoor effect is seen. For example, there is a lot going for short-range defence, Medium Range Surface-to-Air Missile (MR-SAM), Very Short Range Air Defence System (V-SHORADS). Then the 30 mm naval surface gun. There is also 76 mm smart ammunition for the Navy. These are all for short-range point defence for any missile, rocket or drone that gets through other layers.
All of this is the Sindoor effect. The Army is going to buy a Russian system which is going to be manufactured in India. This is the V-SHORADs, a very short-range surface to air defence system, a very quick reaction system. This would be manufactured by the Adani Group. But this is something which was in the works for several years actually.
Uri syndrome: And then came 26 December extension of emergency powers till 15 January. That’s because the government is aware that the procurement system is very slow, and highly convoluted. Emergency procurement was first introduced after the Uri strikes, when it realised that there were many things missing in the armed forces.
At that time, senior officers from the three services were flying out to multiple countries and buying things. Since then, it has been extended many times.
Now, they have increased the financial powers of the services and of the commands as far as the revenue budget is concerned, revenue expenditure is concerned. So earlier, it was the capital to buy new systems. So now the government feels that, you know, the armed forces were able to fill up the immediate gap. So if you were to buy special ammunition for an existing system, like say Excalibur shells for your M777s, that would be revenue expenditure.
Then 29 December, Rs 79,000 crore worth of approvals, long-range rocket ammunition. Again, some of this looks like either replenishment or building war wastage reserves. It’s a combination of both, plus loitering munitions for the artillery. Because artillery seems to be now heavily moving towards long distance, beyond visual range warfare. That’s how artillery is going to shape up. The Astra Mark-2 has approval, so it has to clear trials; it’s still in the development phase.
Taking flight: Then the big one, 12 February 2026, Rs 3.6 lakh crore approved: Rafale, P-8Is. And airship-based high-altitude pseudo-satellites, all solar-based. So these fly at very high altitude, over 60,000 feet, and they use solar power; specialised batteries which are very thin. It’s basically meant for surveillance and reconnaissance. And once again, armoured recovery vehicles, T-72 tanks, BMP-2s.
One gets the sense sometimes that we’ve tied ourselves into knots with these systems. And that’s the reason our procurement process is not just slow, but is also highly convoluted. And it’s also something that your adversaries can gain from. They can spread disinformation, use social media to set up anonymous handles and create enough or throw enough sort of chaff into the debate in India.
They’re competing interests also. They’ll be competing claimants for the same system. Agencies are seeing the rising trend of perception management being played by different players. Perception management has not been played by only foreign companies and players or nations inimical to India’s interests, but by institutions in India itself. The whole idea is to muddy the water so much that there is confusion all around.
And people who have to sign files get scared. A lot of people have asked if Indian decision makers are influenced by what’s happening on social media. The fact is that we as individuals and humans get influenced by social media. Even the judiciary gets influenced by social media.
Then we come to the DAC meet of 27 March 2026, the last of the last financial year. The interesting thing is armour-piercing tank ammunition. It was being talked about some 15 years back that India did not have a good enough APFSDS, as it’s called Armor-Piercing Fin-Stabilised Discarding Sabot. And that Pakistan tanks now had stronger armour, which our APFSDS was not able to pierce. But now even tank warfare is beyond visual range so one is unsure how important it will be. But the fact is that if we still have this gap, which not good for us.
Lift needed: Medium transport aircraft is the big item here. What is it that we need? What is it that we are looking at? And what are the possibilities? Interestingly, the first approval would have come out in the mid-2000s.
The initial plan was to design a medium transport aircraft (MTA). It was supposed to be a joint venture between India and Russia. This project was eventually shelved. Now the whole idea for the MTA is that it will replace not just the An-32s, but also the Il-76s.
There’s a big size and capability difference between the An-32 and Il-76. The An-32 is a turboprop aircraft with two engines; the Il-76 is much bigger and has four jet engines. This time in the DAC, it is clearly mentioned that it will be a replacement for An-32 and Il-76. The RFI had asked for an aircraft with a capacity of 20 to 30 tonnes. There are three contenders.
One is the Lockheed Martin C-130J, which is already in use with the IAF . The only drawback as far as the C-130J is concerned is that it only meets the minimum criteria. It doesn’t go beyond.
Then you have the Embraer -390 Millennium, which falls into that sweet spot because Embraer has a capacity of about 27 tons. And the IAF already flies Embraers for AEW work, that is the Netra system, and for the VVIP transport. And there are more Netra Mark-2s supposed to come up, and the Netra Mark-1A, of which six are to come up, and which will be on the Embraer platform. Six second-hand Embraers have been identified; there is an Embraer ecosystem in place.
And the third is the Airbus A400M, but the only problem with it is that it is too big, and goes beyond the upper limit of the Air Force. The competition is therefore likely to be between Lockheed Martin and Embraer.
Now, 3 July this year, Rs 52,000 crore worth of approvals. Once again, it looks like a bit of the same everywhere. Once again, there is the sense that everybody’s filling up war wastage reserves, anticipating another conflict, that in case a conflict takes place, now you should have your inventories filled up.
There’s the Akash Tarang, which is anti-UAV electronic protection. So this has a lot of Operation Sindoor influence. One of the things which really stand out is jet-based kamikaze drone systems.
Anything subsonic these days rarely survives. So now the idea is to have this jet, and that’s a new kind of drone as far as India is concerned. We procured a certain number of this kind of drones from outside, before Sindoor and afterwards too. Of course, the VSHORADS is there, and more MR-SAM systems.
Big deals: Among the big ticket items, there are two that could be signed at the same time, or one sooner than the other. One is for the additional PA ties. Those six, it’s under the foreign military sales (FMS) route, which is a government-to-government (G2G) deal with the US. That’s already in the works.
The other big contract that could be coming by the end of this fiscal, or early next fiscal, is the deal for 114 Rafale fighter jets. The Indian government has already issued the letter of request, because here it is a G2G one. The French government is supposed to respond by September this year. But more or less, the larger dynamics have already been worked out. It’s just the finer details remaining, something that also applies to the additional five additional S-400 batteries.
Five additional S-400 batteries could take time, because this is going to be a big contract that you have to sign with Russia. And the fear of cuts, sanctions, and plus how to make the payment is also a big issue.
Even the initial contract took about two years after signing of the contract to be operationalized, because India was unable to find a way to make the payments. A payment structure was eventually worked out. Whatever the contract value was and whatever the advance was, it was well worth the price, as we learned in Operation Sindoor, because with BrahMos, S-400 was the big, big balance shifter in that short conflict.
It created a no-fly zone for Pakistan Air Force in a very wide and deep belt. When the Indian Air Force was carrying out multiple strikes using BrahMos, Scalp and Hammer missiles, the fact is that none of the Pakistani Air Force fighters took to the air in challenge.
The first step in this hurdle race has been crossed, but there are many more to go.
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