New Delhi: The danger of border skirmishes between India and China lurks as long as the countries disagree over where the Line of Actual Control (LAC) lies, a global think tank has said in its latest report. The report from the Brussels-based global non-profit International Crisis Group comes when the military standoff between India and China is set to enter its fourth year.
Published on 14 November, the report also recommends steps for the two countries to manage the mounting risks.
The tensions along the LAC began in 2020 after thousands of Chinese troops advanced in different locations west of the border, resulting in clashes with Indian soldiers. Subsequently, the two countries conducted a series of Corps Commander-level talks, with the 20th round being held at Chushul-Moldo border meeting point on the Indian side from 9-10 October.
In its report, the think tank — which, according to its website, works at “preventing and resolving deadly conflict” — said that since the clashes, China has stationed 50,000-60,000 troops close to the western section and constructed facilities that allow up to 1,20,000 soldiers to stay within 100 km of the LAC.
“New infrastructure has also cut down the time for reinforcements and equipment to reach the border,” the report said. “A Chinese analyst estimated the army could dispatch up to 1,20,000 troops to the border within a week.”
According to the report, Beijing has deployed heavy weaponry to the border, including rocket launchers and air defence missile systems to Xinjiang, and S-400 anti-aircraft systems to bases in Xinjiang and Tibet. “Military exercises take place regularly, apparently not just for training purposes, but also as means of deterring the Indian side,” the report said.
The Indian Army, conversely, has diverted a large number of its forces from its western border with Pakistan to its northern border with China, where it has stationed an additional 50,000 troops — not counting reserves — and moved heavy weapon systems to forward areas, the report said. New Delhi has also continued to build infrastructure, it added.
Last year, India and China completed disengagement at patrolling point P-15 in the Gogra-Hot Springs region of eastern Ladakh. Following talks between the PLA and the Indian Army, the two militaries earlier pulled troops, equipment, and weapons systems back from the border and also tore down structures at Patrol Point 14, or PP14, in the Galwan Valley on the northern shore of Pangong Lake, the report said.
The LAC has three sectors — Western, Middle, and Eastern. The LAC is reportedly more heavily contested in the Western sector.
“In the Galwan Valley’s case, the two sides withdrew 1.5 km each from the site of fighting, creating a new buffer zone where neither sends patrols,” the report said. “About 30 soldiers on each side are stationed outside the zone, with another 50 troops 1 km farther out.”
After 20 rounds of Corps Commander-level talks between the sides, two sites — Depsang and Demchok — remain actively contested, the report said.
“More generally, Indian critics of disengagement have argued that some of the new buffer zones are carved more out of Indian territory than Chinese and that New Delhi has given away patrolling rights that it previously had. Community leaders in Ladakh have also said the buffer zones encompass grazing lands, affecting local livelihoods,” the report said.
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‘Dangers remain’
The absence of a demarcated border and a lack of consensus on where the LAC lies frequently leads to “accusations of incursions as well as standoffs between the two armies”, the report said.
“For China, the LAC is defined as the status quo on the border dating back to 7 November 1959, when Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai first proposed the boundary to Indian Prime Minister Nehru,” the report said. “For India, however, the LAC corresponds to the status quo as it existed on 8 September 1962, including the territorial gains India achieved in 1961-1962, which China took from India in the 1962 war.”
The report states that even as the border seems to have stabilised in the last three years, the “dangers remain” after both sides have established buffer zones in areas where standoffs occurred in 2020. It further said that both sides have “fortified their positions with fresh troops, who now number over 100,000 (counting those on both sides), and infrastructure”.
“Roads and settlements, on the Chinese side in particular, mean reinforcements can arrive quickly. The build-ups make clear the cost of escalation, encouraging restraint,” the report said.
The report recommends proactive measures by both sides to prevent the border situation from escalating.
“Without improvements in the tone and substance of the bilateral relationship, the threat of fresh outbreaks of fighting persists. The 2020s will present sterner tests than the last few decades did, due to heightened nationalism on both sides as well as geopolitical tensions,” it said.
Additionally, the report recommended that through existing dialogue mechanisms, the two sides should seek to adapt the principle they agreed upon in 1996 of “mutual and equal security — namely, military deployments of mutually acceptable size near the border — to the reality of a heavily militarised frontier”.
Significantly, in 1996, India and China signed a confidence-building agreement. According to Article II of the agreement — a continuation of a 1993 agreement — “no activities of either side shall overstep the Line of Actual Vontrol.”
Discussions, hotlines — what report recommends
In its report, the think tank exhorted the two countries to reaffirm their commitment to strengthening protocols meant to prevent escalation at the border, including the ban on firearm usage.
“They should consider returning to discussions to set up hotlines at top military levels to defuse tensions when they arise and establish more buffer zones along stretches of the frontier that have seen sharp confrontation,” the think tank suggests.
It also emphasised the need to resume dialogue between India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Dialogue between the two countries has been at a standstill since 2019, apart from those at multilateral summits. Resuming talks, the report said, is vital to managing distrust.
The report acknowledges that this is a challenge, particularly due to New Delhi’s apprehension that such talks might legitimise “Beijing’s characterisation of the border situation as normal”.
Nevertheless, it suggests that New Delhi can make it clear that reopening communications is aimed at managing a competitive relationship and to assert Indian prerogatives rather than glossing over them.
“While political leaders in both states assert the primacy of national interests, neither country’s security would be served by more fighting between armies bristling with modern weaponry,” said the report.
(Edited by Uttara Ramaswamy)
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