New Delhi: A month after India’s air strikes on a Jaish-e-Mohammed camp in Balakot, Pakistan, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has claimed that the Israeli-origin SPICE 2000 bombs used by the Indian Air Force missed their targets because the IAF incorrectly programmed the smart bombs.
However, the ASPI’s analysis is inherently flawed, and seems based on illogical assumptions.
ThePrint takes a close look at ASPI’s analysis and the satellite images it has used to explain the anomalies and the incorrect conclusions.
Incorrect assumptions
The biggest mistake committed by the ASPI authors is that they assume that the IAF did not use the correct information while feeding the GPS coordinates.
The IAF would have most certainly calibrated its systems and practised such strikes many times in various environments, including using simulators.
The ASPI article says that SPICE 2000 is a glide bomb and moves at an inclined trajectory, due to an exact error of 33m in the datum or information fed into them, the bombs fell elsewhere.
This is an illogical assumption since the JeM terrorist training camp at Jabba Top is located in a thickly-wooded forest with coniferous trees, which have grown much above the buildings (tree shadow indicated in the article).
It is incorrect to presume that IAF would have used an Angle of Impact anything below 80º to hit the designated targets in such a thickly-forested area.
Guidance system
The guidance system of the bombs used in this operation is not only based on GPS coordinates, but also on aerial photos and satellite images that are fed into the system as target information.
This duplication system of feeding target information increases redundancy, and thus increases the hit probability.
Changing possible target
The ASPI researchers have also changed the targets from their earlier report. The reasons for the same have not been explained in the new report.
The length of the line denoting information difference in height has also been adjusted very clearly. The purpose of the changes made have not been explained anywhere either.
The elevation profile of the changed target clearly indicates that in such information difference of 33m, the impact location would have been further away.
The target and length of information difference seems to have been changed on purpose, to ensure the angle of trajectory matches the trajectory drawn for other targets.
The only explanation for these changes is in order to modulate the data to match the analysis, which is a sign of shoddy research.
Also read: Image shows possible accident near Pakistani nuclear weapons facility after Balakot
Direction of fire
The analysis joins the lines of the possible targets and supposed impact locations and extends them to the IAF aircraft at a distance of 60 km, revealing surprising details.
The direction of fire, the analysis claims, is from 197º to 240º, which when extended to 60 km, indicates that the location of the aircraft would be much within Pakistan’s territory, without any valley to move along in a nap-of-the-earth (NOE) manner — a kind of flying where geographical features are used as cover.
The three directions of fire the researchers propose, when plotted on Google Earth, would mean that the distance between the first and third aircraft was almost 45 km — which is impossible.
Air force aircraft move in particular formations during operations, and can never be 45 km apart in enemy territory. The researchers’ assumption is, therefore, far removed from the reality of a professional force like the Indian Air Force.
Also read: Pakistan’s entire navy has been out at sea after India bombed Balakot
Even the photos in wire magazine giving credence to the Australian mention recent images while showing one year old images. This should be debated.
Thank you India for giving us the Israeli technology intact. Do you know why none out of 5 bombs dropped by IAF exploded?
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) by ‘trying to sound definitive lays bare it’s bias’ especially when it’s inaccurate analysis is been exposed. Perhaps India’s successful tests of it’s anti-satellite missile capabilities recently, codenamed Mission Shakti, thus joining the elite club of achievers (USA, RUSSIA & CHINA) as a fourth member ‘will remove any doubts as to India’s prowess in this area of expertise.
ASPI ‘s reputation ‘if it had any’ is diminished.
Dear criticizers of air strike,only one thing you tell me if our military is saying false or they missed the targets then why Pakistan has not allowed foreign journalists to brief that striked area….have some mind,or else I think you lost your mind in criticizing our military and government
Because it was actually a terrorist camp, that’s why Pakistan didn’t allow anyone. Use your brain, don’t be andhbhakt. Satellite images show zero damage to the building.
Air strike is correctly targeted hit correct place killing atleast 300 terrorists but print ought to have publish this type of articles immediately in the morning of air strikes by showing the effected place then you more than 300 dead bodies then ought not dare to write this comments on our capabilities are you sleeping all these days and others who commented against that Air Force by changing their names are traitors of India they have to answer near future
Some readers have missed the point that this article is written by a retired Indian colonel and actually challenges the ASPI report. And they are blaming ThePrint as pro-Cong, pro-Pak etc.! It shows that the Bhakts have pea-sized brains.
bfr commenting in this manner & calling names read this experts original report which came to the wrong conclusion. s stop calling people names.
Ghar ki murgi daal barabar
Apni army pe bharosha Nahi karenge , magar falana dhikana kya kahega , usko maan lenge
Shame on you!
Army pe to poora bharosa hai lekin Modi pe minus zero bharosa. Aur doosri cheez, upar vale ne aadmi ko dimag kyo diya? Kya Isliye ke vo andha bharosa kar le?
Idiots !! These don’t believe Modi. He him self piloted the I A F plane and inflicted damages with a single bomb from Israel which penetrated thrice in three places, boring holes in to concrete and detonated inside the hideout that killed 350 terrorists and counted 300 active mobiles and sent the information to modi. Above all is the bombs did not rip open the roof top even though they exploded below roof and killed humans there only because they were Israel’s neutron bombs .
What’s the explanation for the buildings still standing?
Hahaha
Whole international media making fun of india
In reality approximately 19 tree damaged, nothing else.
Pakistan Surprised very next morning and shot down 2 Indian fighter jets, this is called capability and technique
Indian air force shot down its own mi 17 helicopter .
Costly weapons does not matters, skill matters.
lmfao bro ….yeah and the second pilot magically disappeared from pakistani hospital rig ht ??? delusional as always….atleast ….shooting of a f16 by a mig 21 lolol thats what skills are called…
There is a very simple method of verifying the claims and that is as follows. The reality is that the SPICE 2000 Air to Surface Missiles that were deployed through our Mirages, are State of the Art Technology. Essentially each Missile is fitted with a VIDEO CAMERA that continuously transmits images to the Mirages, till the very last millisecond till it strikes the target for which it has been programmed in advance.
The fact that the Modi Govt has not released these videos proves that the reporting by the international media holds true. The government has released Satellite images but they have been debunked. The only way to settle this controversy is for the Modi Government to release the Video evidence.
In fact there is need for a group of eminent citizens to file a PIL and appeal to the Supreme Court to ask the government to release the video footage of the Balakot strike.
You’re not supposed to release confidential info like that. This is was a defense operation not a fortnite game.
The Print, this country of 130 crore people do not need a certificate from you whites. We believe our military might and their capabilities you need not to worry. We have done it and will again till the destruction of nurseries of terror in Napakistan. Get prepared for the next….. ????
Vinayak Sir,
Are you differing with
(1) ASPI’s Assertion that the Bombs missed the targets?
(2) Or their Analysis on Why they missed??
Simulation analysises and real time responce are totally out of contrast especially for arial projectile. The analysis done by ASPI is not true as they used google earth and settalite images.
Let me tell ASPI that IAF aircrafts are equiped with indigenous systems and the accuracy to hit a target from 10km arial height is 0.25mR at Centre to 2mR at max.
Bombs can miss target by 2 maximum from a arial height of 10km. Hence, the artical published by ASPI is not valid.
The Print, if you have too much problem about air strike, why don’t you go Pakistan and click real picture and show us. You are journalist you can go there. Clear with us too by clicking your original picture. I think you have just one news which is about India’s air strike on Pakistan that had been failed according to you.
What i don’t understand ?
– ASPI imagery shows no holes on the roof
– yours does
Why aren’t they able to confirm what you have found.
Simple question without any complicated explanations. You found holes somewhere from imagery taken at a certain time, why can’t they corroborate it
What is the status of ASPI? Hearing of this Institute for the first time….. Is it an Australian Government Institute?
This author has no idea on how the SPICE 2000 bombs work. Your analysis is just nonsensical. The ASPI are reliable and accurate. Your assumptions are impractical from a technical standpoint. Ludicrous report
Though ASPI’s wrong assumptions were perfectly pointed out by thePrint but it is not true that international media was not allowed….the very next day I saw a BBC reporter who was by the way “INDIAN” go to the site and show that IAF missed the target by almost 100-200 mtrs and no casualty was inflicted….I think the govt has been using the military for political reasons
What a joke …..The Print is a joke itself and it’s usual …..from where they got this data of air strike …..ha…ha…ha…. nonsense media house …..according to Australian media 1971 indo_pak war was won by Pakistan …..it shows how much Australians r jewelous to India