scorecardresearch
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
HomeMacroSutra

MacroSutra

After causing some worry, manufacturing brings a pleasant surprise in Q2. But consumption a concern

While indicators of urban demand are growing at a sharp pace, rural consumption is in slow lane. However, manufacturing, mining and construction have all seen double-digit growth.

Though improved, central & states’ debt still higher than pre-Covid levels. How this can be managed

Indian govt's status paper presents a consolidated picture of country's debt position & emphasises the need to improve liquidity in the debt market by diversifying the investor base.

Low or high, inflation a pain point in poll-bound states. Parties assure sops to ease rising prices

In Rajasthan & Telangana, inflation remains above 6%, while Chhattisgarh & MP see relief. Despite variations, political parties in all states assuring voters of subsidies, cash transfers.

States spending better, with many prioritising capex. But those dependent on Centre may face stress

Capital expenditure of 23 states grew by 52% in April-September 2023 over same period last yr, but discontinuation of GST compensation, tapering of grants could weigh down some states.

Consumer confidence at 4-yr high as India sees growth momentum, but rural sectors need sustained push

Urban consumers are more optimistic about current economic conditions, while those in rural India are more so about expectations of 1-yr ahead income, economic & business environment.

Uncertainty over Israel-Hamas war, rising US bond yields to hit stock markets for foreseeable future

Rising oil prices and muted second quarter financial performance of key IT sector companies are other sources of potential volatility for Indian markets.

Lower manufacturing or data issues? Govt figures show some of India’s output below 2011-12 levels

Index of Industrial Production data shows production in several sectors lower than 12 yrs ago. This may be true for some sectors, but also implies data collection process needs an update.

India remains fastest-growing big economy in FY24 but Israel-Hamas war could hurt govt’s fiscal math

Conflict in the Middle East could upset assumptions & forecasts and, if it escalates, disrupt the oil markets. For India, it could raise worries on inflation, put pressure on the rupee.

How inclusion of Indian bonds in global indices could unleash potential of India’s financial market

It will attract more foreign funds and support diversification of investor base. Continued focus on macro-stability and fiscal prudence will be crucial to navigate associated challenges.

Households are saving less and borrowing more, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing

Data for 2022-23 shows households’ reliance on borrowings has increased not only to finance consumption, but also to purchase or construct property. Vehicle loans also saw an increase.

On Camera

Imtiaz Ali obsesses over vulgarity, misses Chamkila’s cultural resistance against purity

Peter Manuel's ‘Cassette Culture’ showed the booming Bhakti music during the '80s and '90s when Anoop Jalota, Gulshan Kumar achieved success by singing the sanitised Bhajans.

Economists vs statisticians — the battle being fought over the soul of India’s GDP data

Economists say there are weaknesses in India’s GDP data. But statisticians claim the accusations are based on flawed understanding, saying while GDP has problems, the economists are looking in the wrong places.

India and Japan hold 10th round of consultations on disarmament, non-proliferation, and export control

The two sides also discussed ways to strengthen cooperation in outer space security, conventional weapons, and export control

These 6 states are key for Modi’s ‘400 paar’ target. They’re also where Opposition can stop him

While this contest looks so predictable in large swathes of our political landscape, it is also more keenly contested than 2019 in some states.