Amit Shah had declared at the Bharatiya Janata Party’s national executive meeting in 2018 that the party will win the 2019 Lok Sabha election and “no one can dethrone the BJP for the next 50 years”—that is, till 2069.
Last month, the Union Home Minister and BJP chief strategist said in the Lok Sabha that the Opposition parties would be there (on the Opposition benches) “for the next 20 years”— that is, till 2045.
Let’s make it 2049 because the Lok Sabha election will have taken place in 2044. It also takes into account Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of making India a developed country by 2047.
Modi is looking to remain at the helm till 2035, at least. In his Independence Day address, he said that “in the coming 10 years, till 2035, I want to expand this (national security shield) …strengthen it, modernise it”. “I” is key here. He will be only 85 by then. And he is much fitter than Joe Biden who demitted the US President’s office at 82. Mahathir Mohamad was the Prime Minister of Malaysia till he was almost 95.
You may think I can’t be serious. Talks of 20 or 50 years are just rhetorical, aren’t they? A former BJP MP advised me not to take PM Modi’s reference to 2035 seriously. “The day a leader throws a hint that he is even thinking of a retirement plan, everybody around him starts abandoning him. You can’t afford to do that in politics,” he explained. Maybe. What if BJP leaders truly believe what they say?
How else could you explain the Modi-led government’s sudden decision to bring the Constitution (130th Amendment) Bill, envisaged to unseat the Prime Minister, chief ministers, and ministers on the 31st day of their arrest or detention in custody? The PM figures in it for effect, of course. The proposed legislation places the CMs and ministers at the mercy of mostly Central investigation agencies whose track record in impartiality is better left undiscussed.
BJP’s vision of forever
These central agencies are known to often go out of their way to please the political bosses. The CMs and ministers who are not from the ruling party/coalition at the Centre have reasons to be alarmed by the proposed legislation. It is always prone to being used against the Opposition.
Former Union minister Sharad Pawar recently pointed out how during the Manmohan Singh government, it was P Chidambaram who had backed the amendment in the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) to put the onus to prove innocence on the accused. Pawar told Singh that it was dangerous. “If the government changes, we will also have to face consequences. But the advice was not heeded,” disclosed Pawar.
In 2019, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) arrested Chidambaram in a PMLA case. He had to spend 106 days in jail before he got bail.
The proposed law—Constitution (130th Amendment) Bill— can potentially be weaponised by a ruling party at the Centre (not necessarily BJP) to destabilise governments in states ruled by rival parties (the BJP, included). So, why would Shah or the BJP want to make such a law? The most conceivable answer is that the BJP doesn’t see itself sitting on the Opposition benches in the Lok Sabha ever—till 2049, at least.
Look at the Centre’s stand on the Supreme Court setting a timeline for the governors to act on the bills passed by state assemblies. It wants the elected governments in the states to be placed at the mercy of its nominees in the Raj Bhawans. Only a party that is confident of being in power at the Centre forever would want take such a stand.
This confidence of the BJP is reflected in so many other ways—from overturning the SC’s ruling to end government’s control over the appointment of the Chief Election Commissioners and ECs to the alleged use of central investigative agencies to target Opposition leaders. There are many other instances.
Failing central schemes, promises
Here is the catch, though. Team Modi seems to be losing steam. Speaking from the ramparts of the Red Fort this year, Modi said, “I have brought good news for the youth of my country. Today, on August 15th, we are launching and implementing a scheme worth Rs 1 lakh crore for the youth of my country. The Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rojgar Yojana is being implemented today.” Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced this scheme in her Budget speech in July 2024. It was repackaged with a new name in the Independence Day speech this year.
The PM referred to a “massive campaign” for skill development, self-employment and internship in big companies. Let’s look at the last component that figured in the same Budget speech—the Prime Minister’s Internship Scheme (PMIS) for internship to 1 crore youth till 2029. The PMIS has been a big disappointment so far with low turnout and high attrition, as my colleague Udit Bubna’s brilliant investigation showed.
In the first round launched last October, only 8,725 candidates finally joined against 1.27 lakh internship slots offered by public and private companies. Many of those who joined quit later. Of the Rs 2,000 crore initially earmarked for the PMIS for FY25—later revised to Rs 380 crore—only Rs 21.1 crore was spent till February 2025.
In the second round, out of 1.18 lakh internship opportunities, till July 17, only 22,584 candidates had accepted the offers, as per a government reply in the Lok Sabha. How many of them finally joined has not been disclosed yet.
As for the much-hyped Skill India mission, you must read Karti Chidambaram’s damning article in ThePrint—“Where is Skill India money going? It’s a Rs 48,000 crore mystery”.
He’s a Congress MP, for sure. But he has quoted official data. Skill Development and Entrepreneurship (MSDE) portfolio has been given to a BJP ally now—Jayant Chaudhary of the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Since 2014, MSDE ministry has had so many ministers— Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Dharmendra Pradhan, Mahendra Nath Pandey, Pradhan (again), and Jayant Chaudhary. So much commitment to the hyped Skill India mission that PM Modi announced from the Red Fort in 2014!
Let’s look at some of his other announcements from the Red Fort that year—Make in India, for one. Its initial target was to boost manufacturing to account for 25 per cent of the GDP by 2022—from around 17 per cent in 2013-14. In April this year, FM Sitharaman said India plans to increase the manufacturing sector’s share from 12 per cent to 23 per cent in the next two decades.
PM Modi also promised to double farmers’ income by 2022. From the Red Fort in 2014, the PM had announced the Sansad Gram Yojana— making one “Adarsh” or ideal village by 2016, two more by 2019 and five from 2019 to 2024. The scheme has gone into oblivion. Then there was Swachh Bharat mission. It started in right earnest but is almost forgotten today.
In 2015, PM Modi launched the ambitious Smart Cities Mission to improve the quality of life in 100 cities. The mission was over this year with the expenditure of well over Rs 1.50 lakh crore. You may already be living in one of those Smart Cities, even though you may not be aware.
Modi’s Independence Day speech this year got rave reviews again— the task force for “next generation reforms” being the most promising. One doesn’t know if he will walk the talk and go back to land and labour reforms. The government remains touchy about anything concerning farmers—good or bad. In 2015, Modi had spoken about four labour codes from the Red Fort. Parliament passed them in 2019-20. The Centre hasn’t shown the will to notify these codes yet.
Also read: Why Modi, BJP should worry about bad blood between CEC Gyanesh Kumar and Rahul Gandhi
Time for revamp
On Saturday, the Prime Minister said his government is ready to unleash “an arsenal of next-generation reforms”. If the BJP has to be in power till 2049, these reforms must be substantive, not cosmetic.
As it is, as the above-mentioned instances show, Modi’s team is tiring, losing imagination or can’t get their priorities right. India’s Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) would be hit hard by the 50 per cent US tariffs. Who is the MSME minister steering the sector out of this looming crisis? It’s Jitan Ram Manjhi who is busy campaigning in Bihar and has shown little interest in his ministry.
Another minister who should have been worried is Rajiv Ranjan Singh, the minister for fisheries, animal husbandry and dairying. He is also busy in the Bihar poll campaign. One can talk about the textiles minister Giriraj Singh and many others. I am aware of the counterargument. That the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and bureaucrats, not ministers, run the ministries and so don’t bother. That’s my point. Those bureaucrats seem to have lost steam and imagination while the political executive is busy with never-ending elections. PM Modi needs to revamp his team—of both ministers and bureaucrats.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)