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Andhra Pradesh people are at the point of two cross roads, which road they would choose will define Andhra Pradesh future.
To make you understand the importance of Andhra Pradesh. I am quoting Prashant Kishore in a recent interview who said, “Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh from South of India are as relevant to Bihar and Uttar Pradesh of North India”.
Little History
In the 2019 Assembly election, Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu(C.B.N) of Telugu Desam party was an incumbent and had enemies who squeezed him from all sides. He had a strong opposition leader in the state Mr.Jagan Mohan Reddy of the Yuva Jana Sramika Rythu Congress party.
He also chose to fight against Mr.Modi and his central government machinery after differing with them, babu was part of a coalition in Telangana with the then Congress Party where he and the coalition lost badly so Mr.KCR decided to give in his words “A Return Gift” to babu in Andhra elections by helping Jagan Mohan Reddy.
The 2019 election witnessed some candidates move to Y.S.R.C.P. even after getting B forms from the TDP. Babu was able to get ~40% vote share but was decimated with winning less than 15% of the assembly seats contested. Jagan had a landslide victory winning 151/175 seats.
Present
To make you understand how polarised the Andhra Elections are, I am quoting Nirmala sitharaman who recently said she was offered by the BJP party to contest from Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh with a choice of selecting her own seat she said, “Opted out of Lok Sabha polls, didn’t have kind of money to contest”.
Positives for Jagan
Jagan Mohan Reddy is banking heavily on his Navaratnalu schemes which he announced in his manifesto before the 2019 election. He even went ahead and told Andhra voters that the 2024 election will be a testimony to the decision on who wins this Class War (Rich or the Poor).
There is a proper positivity in the rural areas for the schemes which were delivered at a saturation level by the Volunteer system which was designed to deliver these schemes very effectively.
Negatives for Jagan
Jagan sister Sharmila Reddy and his cousin Sunitha Reddy are openly passing statements in the media to defeat their brother alleging he was involved in the murder of his own uncle Mr. Vivekanada Reddy, brother of Jagan’s father the late Ex-CM Raja Sekhar Reddy.
He also went ahead and stopped the Green Field City Amaravati which was planned and designed by his prior Chief Minister Babu. The farmers of Amaravati have given their lands ~33,000 Acres in land pooling method which leaves the protesting farmers future in jeopardy.
Jagan promised a total liquor ban in the state which did not happen and there is word of mouth in the state that the quality of liquor available is very poor. There is an opinion that roads and other infrastructure was neglected in the State and political vendetta reached to a point where TDP M.P. Galla Jayadev quit politics and took his company Amar Raja to Telangana.
The Coalition
In one of the recent cut the clutter show, Shekhar Gupta said, to never write off anyone in politics and used C.B.N. as an example who was nowhere in contention two years ago, but the situation changed because of the sympathy generated for his arrest and imprisonment by jagan’s government.
Also, the Politician turned Actor Mr. Pawan Kalyan, called Power Star by his fans, entered into an alliance with the TDP, and his slogan is not to split anti-government votes, his party Jana Sena polled ~6% vote share in the 2019 assembly election. He has a good following in Youth and also belongs to the Kapu community who are ~18% of the total population of Andhra.
On why did BJP ally with the TDP again after their 2019 experience, Pawan kalyan took the credit for arranging this coalition, which might be one of the reasons. But when I tried to read in between the lines CBN recently took a decision to not contest telangana elections and the word of mouth is Reventh Reddy and the Congress benefited due to this decision and also CBN was able to deliver tit for tat to KCR and his B.R.S party. BJP wants to be the principal opposition party to the Congress in Telangana by 2027 which might also impacted their decision to go with CBN for now and they got a very sweet deal in Andhra seat share process also.
During CBN tenure he was able to bring manufacturing units of companies like KIA, Hero Motors and more. He was also able to deliver some good schemes like Anna Canteens, Scholarships for students studying abroad, etc.. Polavaram Project which is considered as a life line for Andhra was also constructed at a Brisk pace during his tenure which was delayed during Jagan’s term. He still has a good urban vote share which gives him credit for Developing Hyderabad in the then united Andhra State. Andhra urban population is around 40%-50% of total population.
Are schemes enough to win a state election? We will know the answer to this question in a couple of months from now.
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