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India is in the middle of its general elections in 2024. The BJP’s slogan is “Abki Baar 400 Paar,” while Congress has formed a formidable alliance called I.N.D.I.A. with several opposition parties to try and defeat the BJP and has its slogan of “Haath Badalega Haalath”. The space for any third front or non-alliance has significantly shrunk.
Opinion polls suggest that BJP-led N.D.A. is leading in North, West, and North Eastern states, while I.N.D.I.A. is strong in South and Eastern states. West Bengal, Bihar, and Maharashtra have emerged as swing states.
Today speaking of Maharashtra, which is a crucial state in Indian politics, is known for being a Congress stronghold until 2014. In the 2019 state elections, the Maha Vikas Aaghadi (M.V.A.) coalition government was formed with Uddhav Thackeray as the CM, but the coalition has since split, and the state now has six parties. BJP is uncertain if they can repeat their performance in the upcoming election. Shiv Sena (U.B.T.) has taken a lion’s share in the seat-sharing and is contesting 21 seats and the BJP contested 28. Rest all parties and factions got significantly fewer seats in this seat sharing.
The election in the state is all about the perception battle and the sympathy the Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray get rather than Ram Mandir and Article 370. M.V.A. focuses on the emotional appeal and politics of Maharashtra Dharma and Marathi Manoos, highlighting businesses leaving the state and job losses. BJP aims to make it a Rahul Gandhi vs Modi battle and has an edge. Thackeray and Pawar are trying to fight this General Election with issues on state matters while Fadnavis and Shinde are trying to gain over P.M. Modi’s Charisma. In the last 5 years, there have been many changes in political parties, with defections and new alliances. Thackeray claims to have cadre intact with him and Shinde has the numbers, while even the Pawar family is divided. Congress seems fragmented over regional leadership and also faced defections of some prominent leaders in the state, while BJP is battling for 400 seats which is difficult without Maharashtra. Political temperatures in Maharashtra are rising with fiery speeches by Pawar and Thackeray and the huge crowds at their rallies, and have shared stages for multiple rallies. The state is also prioritised by P.M. Modi and Amit Shah with P.M. Modi having over 6 rallies in 48 hours in the Western Maharashtra which is the stronghold of the Pawars. Under Uddhav Thackeray’s post-2019, Shiv Sena (UBT) has attracted a lot of secular votes, while the hardcore Hindutva vote bank is moving towards BJP. This shift is due to the help given to everyone during the pandemic, irrespective of their caste and religion. The main concern for all political parties is regarding the transfer of votes. With the inclusion of Ajit Pawar in Mahayuti, will the staunch BJP voters who identify themselves as hardcore Hindutva supporters choose to vote for the Clock symbol of Ajit Pawar? Similarly, in Maha Vikas Aaghadi, will voters who support the Thackeray family vote for the Congress? Both alliances are making efforts to coordinate at the ground level, but in some constituencies, inter-coalition differences can also be seen.
It will only be clear who the public considers as the true Shiv Sena and NCP after the results are announced. The fate of Thackeray, Shinde, Fadnavis, and the Pawars will be determined based on these results, and future seat-sharing arrangements for the assembly elections will also depend on them. Everyone is confused over their winnability in the state
The state has been plagued with endless uncertainties, and the common people have grown weary of the unscrupulous politics that can be seen through low turn-outs in the first three phases. Leaders are allegedly switching sides due to the fear of ED, CBI, and IT, while some are only doing so because they believe it will increase their chances of winning. The two dominant state parties have even splintered into factions, significantly weakening them. The people are furious with this state of affairs, and rightfully so. Maharashtra Politics has long been known for its maturity, with leaders remaining loyal to their ideologies while still maintaining friendships across party lines – a rarity in the North and South. The friendship between Balasaheb Thackeray and Sharad Pawar was a well-known example of this. However, since 2019, the political atmosphere has deteriorated, and it continues to do so with every passing year and the common people are irritated and furious by the breaking of parties and leaders switching the parties.
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