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“This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.” Surely, no one would want these lines from T.S. Eliot’s ‘The Hollow Men’ to come true. Right now, the media frenzy, ‘qwerty thumper’ world watches the unrestricted gamble of Vladimir Putin in Eastern Europe. The swiftness with which Russian forces have invaded Ukraine is certainly a haemorrhaging bang that has sent the West into a whimpering state. No one would have imagined that in the early hours of 24 February 2022 people would see their television screens blare up with sirens of an attack synonymous with the bygone years of Nazi blitzkrieg.
Pax Americana and Putin’s Roulette
The retreating American boot in Afghanistan last year and NATO’s refusal to put boots on ground in Ukraine tells us that with time the influence of the United States is getting severely depleted. It is not that the American military is not capable enough to respond, but the fact that there is a ‘retreat and reluctance’ culture of not getting directly involved shows that the voids being left behind are being filled by regional and other great powers.
The ‘defeat’ by rag-tag Taliban fighters and the bloody nose given by the re-emerging ‘Mother Russia’ makes one question- “What’s next?” Is Putin going to move beyond Eastern Europe and strike NATO?
The possibility of Putin moving his forces westwards seems nascent at this stage. However, there is a possibility that Putin’s aggression might be part of a wider geopolitical ‘pincer move’ where the sudden heat in Eastern Europe by the ‘Slavic flank’ is targeting many areas.
- Putin’s goal of a greater and more belligerent Russia.
- Further hammering America and NATO’s image post-Afghanistan.
- Starting a fresh refugee crisis in Europe after Iraq and Syria.
- Halting retreat of American troops from Europe initiated during Trump era.
Although the Biden administration overturned Trump’s decision after taking charge, Putin’s gamble has further hardened the fact that American presence in Europe won’t reduce anytime soon. Whether Putin’s play is restricted to Russian interests or something more needs to be seen in the future. If the latter is true then what and where is the ‘other flank’ of this pincer move going to be?
Belligerent China & The Taiwan Question
It could be categorically summarized that the events which the world is witnessing on a geopolitical level could lead to more disastrous and threatening fallouts. From extremist organizations winning over Afghanistan to a nuclear state and former superpower fuming over its non-nuclear neighbour, the upping ante points out towards more such conflicts where greater powers may get directly involved, including nuclear states on opposing sides.
The much-talked-about ‘Taiwan offensive’ of China may have seemed like a distant call some days ago. However, the diversion that the Ukraine situation has caused has made it more plausible. Xi Jinping’s goal of achieving full control in the name of ‘One China Policy’ could be the ‘other pincer’ or ‘Han flank’ of this geopolitical upheaval Europe is witnessing.
Taiwan isn’t Ukraine. The role of American forces is far more entrenched in the South China Sea which includes the regular presence of its 7th Fleet along with behind-the-scenes support to the Taiwanese Armed Forces. Therefore, an immediate and sudden escalation looks improbable. However, the speed at which Russians have dared to invade Ukraine is alarming. Along with regular troops and air support, a massive chunk of war is being unleashed in cyberspace and media with a scathing attack to psychologically demoralize Ukrainians who are surprisingly putting up stiff resistance.
China has all these options in its kitty which can fill up the conventional gap caused by its ‘inexperienced’ on-ground troops. Furthermore, the economic sanctions on Russia would bring it closer to the Chinese bloc. Thus, an indirect Russian involvement in Taiwan can become another headache for the United States.
The Way Ahead for India:
Global geopolitics plays an important role in shaping the internal politics of nations governed by ‘powerful’ leaders. Vladimir Putin has thrived selling the idea of a more powerful Russia. Xi-Jinping has made ‘One China Policy’ the cornerstone of his influence over the Chinese consciousness. Biden administration’s alleged relationship with the so-called Military Industrial Complex has shaped American foreign policy post-Trump.
Likewise, India has found a new place in global politics and is being looked upon by the world to intervene in the ongoing Ukraine crisis. However, its refusal and abstention have created an uneasy situation with the West. Therefore, a state and its political leadership which dreams of thriving with its own populist idea of ‘Akhand Bharat’ must be ready for the ripple of sanctions unleashed against Russia by the West.
By the way, PoK after Taiwan?
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.
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