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Columnists have regularly emphasized the need for the Congress to propose an ideological counter to the BJP. The Congress, in response, has formed a pan-national political alliance (INDIA) of secular political parties opposed to the BJP. Although this ideological proposition is still playing out, it is untenable. For one, the parties in the INDIA alliances have been bitter rivals vying for the same vote base (except Shiv Sena) with little possibility of vote transfer. Even if this alliance wins the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, their contradictions will only make the Congress weaker.
In this piece, we argue for a fundamentally different ideological proposition for Congress. Let’s consider some facts.
- The support for a left-leaning social coalition is declining.
The average vote share of major left-leaning parties in the 20 assembly elections that we analyzed from close to the 2000s to assembly elections in 2020 has declined from 42% to 33%. In this same period, the average vote share of right-learning parties (which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena, and the SAD) has gone up from 26% in the early 2000s to 39% in 2020s. Since Shiv Sena and SAD are regional parties, the BJP has shouldered most of this increased vote share.
- Poor governance and Poor Organization
The Congress party is currently in power in only three states, with none being incumbents. In-fact the last of their incumbent government ended in 2019 with Arunachal Pradesh. Additionally, in two of these three states, the existing Chief Minister has been recruited from other political parties.
These facts underscore an urgent need for Congress to propose an ideological counter to the BJP which will enthuse their cadre as well as guide their governance.
Old Formula for the Congress
The Congress has traditionally relied on an electoral coalition of Muslims and Backward classes to win elections. Since, the BJP was perceived as a Brahmin party, backward classes naturally voted for the Congress. This led the Congress to emphasize Muslim interests to win over their votes. Later even offshoots from Congress like the TMC and the NCP, started using the same formula and even governed better. This has led to a splintering of the congress vote to regional parties in a few states like West Bengal, Maharashtra, UP, and Bihar.
Although inconvenient, this strategy worked for the Congress party because it helped them win the Lok Sabha elections and keep the control of party within the family. Recently social engineering ushered in by the Modi-Shah era has upended this arrangement and an unwillingness to explore newer avenues for votes has led to a drastic decline of the Congress party.
A New Proposition for the Congress
An ideological political proposition for Congress should be clear enough to aid in policymaking but also pragmatic enough to win votes. Today, the only ideological counter to the BJP’s Hindutva is secularism since it satisfies both above-mentioned criteria. Note that we do not mean secularism of appeasing both religions, but a secularism that strictly separates the state and the religion. We propose that the Congress form a coalition of Muslims and Hindu Upper-Caste voters. Although it sounds implausible, the advantages are aplenty. First, Modi-Shah’s social engineering is based on a committed set of upper-caste voters. They also legitimize both their Hindutva credentials (Brahmin) as well as business credentials (Baniya). In return, they hardly get anything. Reservation policies hurt them socially, and Taxation policies like GST hurt them economically. Even their political representation in the party has gone down. The BJP still gets away with it because no other parties seem to be courting them.
If the Congress can successfully court the Hindu upper-caste vote, it will not only delegitimize the Hindutva agenda but also reduce the BJP’s committed voter base thus making politics more competitive.
How to woo the General Category Votes
Hindu upper-caste voters do not trust the Congress and rightfully so. This is because their political and policy positions have always been at the cost of the Hindu upper caste. Caste census, Reservations, etc. The Congress has been much more active when there are injustices meted out to the Muslims but seems much more muted on Hindu issues. Its recent vacillations on the Ram mandir issues are not helping things either. A genuine reaching out to the community and a rethinking of these three issues will help.
- Reservations: Both the Muslims as well as the general category do not get to avail the benefits of reservations and it is hurting. The debate around EWS quota and well as Maratha reservation highlights the desperation of the upper castes. If the congress commits to ending any further increase in reservations, it can also pull the voters back from the BJP.
- Focus on the political economy: The general category of voters is the most integrated in the formal economy. That means that archaic rules like the income tax rate and the GST hurt them the most. Focusing on economic indicators like Inflation and Unemployment would also strike a chord with these voters.
While the outcome of the 2024 elections remains uncertain, it is evident that Congress must significantly rethink and adjust its political strategy. Ideally, this change should happen sooner rather than later.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.